Why it’s hard to buy in on the 2026 Philadelphia Flyers

On the last episode of The Liberty Yell, I spoke about the difference in how I look at the team and how I’d expect the average fan to look at the team. I talked about the natural skepticism I have for this rendition of the Flyers as I attempt to fully figure out whether their record is a sign of a corner being turned or a blip being experienced.

It’s not a secret that I lean towards the latter. But last night’s Toronto game featured a great glimpse into why I lean towards the latter. Why I feel the way that I do. But before we get there, it’s only fair that we dive into what’s good about the team.

The team is really good defensively. By flat results, the Flyers are bordering on great.

pic.twitter.com/m19vQO9GLA

— Derek Dunn (@SuitableAlias) January 9, 2026

According to TopDown’s model, they’re 10th in the league in expected goals allowed at 5v5. Thanks entirely to Dan Vladar, that is translating into actual goal suppression. They’re also 10th in the league in goals surrendered at 5v5 per hour.

I have very little issue believing that they’re sustainably a top 10 defensive team in the NHL, or right thereabouts. Defense in the NHL is a tricky thing, because there’s two elements. There’s a basketball element and a football element to hockey.

On one side, creating offense in hockey… much like basketball… is fundamentally about breaking down a unit of 5 defenders with your 5 attackers. You break down that defense in such a way that it creates openings for shots that are most likely to score.

Like in basketball, there’s an undeniable element of variance. Or luck. Where your team or a player is simply making shots that they have no business making at the level they’re making them.

But in basketball, you’re guaranteed the ball after the opposing team scores a basket. You trade possessions. And while there is an element of maximizing your possessions against an opponent’s, that’s something that happens on the periphery. There’s a floor to how much you possess the basketball.

No such thing exists in hockey. Instead, like in football, there’s a territorial aspect where you have to move the puck (ball) into the endzone. In this case, moving it into the endzone is how you create the basketball-like conditions of being in the half-court and breaking down defenses to get your best shots.

Also similar to football, you have three ways to advance the puck. You can run, pass, or punt. Jack Han did a great thread pertaining to the world juniors that delves into the run/pass/punt dynamic in hockey.

Lots of folks found my comments below interesting. It's a vague statement so let me add context.

Those who follow American football know that, to advance the play up-field, a team can either Pass, Run or Punt.

There's a similar dynamic in hockey.https://t.co/4UUZnWuCI8

— Jack Han (@JhanHky) January 7, 2026

In transition, you can do one of three things. You can carry the puck yourself… run it. You can pass the puck to a teammate… pass it. Or you can dump it up field and hope you recover it later on… punt.

The North American ethos leans into a pass and punt dynamic where defensemen get rid of the puck as soon as possible, moving it immediately up-ice. The cost of that speed is control. If you don’t have outlier passing talents on the ice, then you’re forced to punt it. Which is, by far, the least efficient way of establishing your offense.

If you do have those passing talents, however, you can create quick strike offense that gives you an initial scoring opportunity off of the “fast break,” and if you don’t score then… you’ll have the numbers and momentum required to recover the puck in the offensive zone and establish your basketball inspired half-court game.

The European ethos leans into a run and pass dynamic. Defensemen will often look to carry the puck until a plainly better option presents itself, and then they’ll pass it to a teammate. It’s focused on control. That control often comes at the cost of speed, where you won’t actually generate scoring opportunities unless you have players who can pick apart set structures with their guile and skill.

There’s a defensive component to both. In the case of the European style of play, they don’t actually surrender a lot of counterattacks despite their possession heavy style. Because team possession is so important to them, the team is usually bunched together. There’s minimal space between the forwards and the defensemen, and a turnover by one is immediately negated by the other.

In the case of the North American style of play, the spacing between the forwards and defensemen are often abysmal. The defensemen push the puck so far up ice that they can’t possibly hope to get up there and impact the play at all, leaving to a wide-open neutral zone on any turnover.

The Flyers play something of a hybrid of these two systems. A run and punt dynamic befitting the ancient days of football, before the air raid offense became standard fare and running 5-out formations became the flavor of the decade.

The Flyers’ first option, at all times, is to carry the puck. This is where people misunderstand Tocchet’s preferred style of play. He doesn’t actually want his team to punt at first opportunity. Instead, the process he advocates leads towards certain results.

Most Flyers’ breakouts, executed properly, will begin with the defensemen wheeling the puck up themselves. Tocchet talks about this endlessly. He wants his defensemen to carry the puck up and quarterback the transition from there.

In the event that the defensemen can’t wheel, however, the passing game is very limited. They pass it off to the winger, hoping that the winger has space to make a play.

Depending on the skill level of the winger and the conditions of that specific puck, you either get a punt or the winger making a pass to the center or the defensemen.

From there, Tocchet wants an immediate north attack. Like North American hockey demands. If you have the space to carry the puck straight up ice and into the zone and get a rush chance, then great! Do that!

If you don’t, then you punt.

Here’s the thing, though… how often does that opportunity exist in the modern NHL?

The Europeans run a very methodical and lateral game. They will wait you out. They will slowly pick apart your defense. The best European style players are almost all carefully curated for this style of play, with very rare exceptions like Alex Ovechkin.

But that’s how they generate offense. It’ll take a while, but they’re willing to wait.

The North Americans aren’t willing to wait and push full steam ahead. But they push full steam ahead, willingly incurring risk. Embracing risk.

The Flyers do neither. They don’t want to wait you out. They don’t want to embrace risk.

What that creates is a sort of defensive nirvana, where you can’t possibly give up a lot of goals.

Unlike the European system, where you do incur the risk of turning the puck over even if you’re in a position to stop it, the Flyers simply don’t incur that risk at all. Especially if Zegras, Michkov, or Konecny aren’t on the ice. They don’t even try to make passing plays, and so they can’t turn it over.

Unlike the North American system, where you do incur the risk of allowing counterattacks due to poor space between the forwards and the defensemen and having to settle for loose gaps, the Flyers are always in position to defend and rarely surrender Grade As immediately after a change in possession.

This defensive nirvana means that you simply never play bad defense. Dvorak, Zegras, Konecny, and Andrae are the only Flyers skaters who don’t come close to the league average in terms of expected goals allowed, while every other Flyers player either meets or exceeds the league average.

The downside, however, is there’s no sustainable path to creating offense. Especially if you don’t have players who simply ignore the rules, like those I mentioned plus Matvei Michkov.

Fittingly, those players (plus Sean Couturier) are the only Flyers regulars who are meaningfully exceeding the league average in terms of offensive chances created.

Right now, the Flyers are living in a pretty good spot where the only players deviating from the system (Zegras, Michkov, Andrae, Konecny) are either very good at deviating from the system or getting the bounces to turn the excess chances into goals.

Michkov is playing European hockey when he’s on the ice, and it’s frankly working great except for the part where he’s been unreasonably snakebitten. But he’s out chancing and outscoring opponents, and his surplus of chances exceeds his surplus of goals. He turns the puck over, but he’s usually doing so with his team in a good enough position to nullify the other team’s possession.

He’s taking advantage of the Tocchet spacing (or lack thereof).

Andrae, Zegras, and Konecny are all playing North American hockey where they’ll look to pass before they punt. But they’ll incur turnovers they’re not in a position to stop along the way, surrendering a bunch of chances against.

It just doesn’t matter because they’re actually scoring and getting the saves.

But I wonder what happens when the bounces stop going their way. Despite 16th in expected goals generated at 5v5, the Flyers are getting the bounces right now and they’re 10th in goals generated at 5v5.

Right now, that’s creating continued incentive to “buy in” to the structure. The players deviating don’t have any incentive to deviate further, and those who aren’t deviating have no reason to start.

But if the 5v5 goal scoring simply reverts back to the mean, then you’re left with the literal definition of mid for even strength offense.

And that’s only compounded by the worst power-play in league history continuing apace as the worst power-play in league history.

What happens when the goals aren’t there?

You have additional reason to deviate from the structure. And once you deviate from the structure, you willingly forsake defensive nirvana.

And then the defense starts to fall. The offense doesn’t actually improve nearly enough to offset the slippage. And you’re left with a team that has nothing whatsoever, be it offense or defense.

What happens if Dan Vladar stops making all of the saves? You get the same vicious cycle.

Between this conundrum and the injuries beginning to mount up, it’s frankly hard to soberly analyze the Flyers and come to the conclusion that they’re in a good place in the short-term future.

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