Lucky Lucciano: College Football Week 3 Bets
We are hanging in there and due for a big week in college football betting. We’re 8-8 through two weeks but up .54 units which is a personal victory. Not having to battle back from down in the gutter is a breath of fresh air, and I feel like I can see the board with crystal clear vision.
For all the narcs, yes, I am keeping an excel sheet tallying all units and wins/losses.
However, this weekend I will be living out a real-life version of a 2000s Bud Light commercial. I’m a groomsman at my best friend’s wedding and have to be there by 11:00 AM on Saturday: a bettor’s nightmare. I will do my best to add any more games to the card, but a man can only do so much. Due to the Rehearsal Dinner and everything else this weekend, there won’t be an NFL Week 2 betting blog, but I will tweet out my picks before noon on Twitter @mattlucci12.
But first, if you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-522-4700; help is available 24/7 and 100% confidential.
*all odds via Parx Sportsbook as of 9/16/21*
Lucky Lucciano Week 3
Maryland -7 at Illinois
Friday, 9:00 PM EST, FS1
I bet on Illinois last week against Virginia. My notes were that my imaginary nephew’s flag football team could put up 28+ points against Illinois’ defense. Now imagine what Taulia Tagovailoa, averaging 303 passing yards and three touchdowns per game, will do to this defense. The Terrapins put up 30 against West Virginia and then hung 62 points against Howard. Illinois may stay in this game for the 1st quarter or so, but that’s about it. Although, weird things tend to happen on Friday nights in college football.
#3 Oklahoma 1H -12.5 at Nebraska
12:00 PM EST, FOX
Boomer Sooner! Nebraska beat Illinois, who I mentioned above as possibly the worst defense in the country, and then rattled off wins against Fordham and Buffalo. Now they get a date with the #3 Oklahoma Sooners and their high-flying offense. The crowd might be a factor for the first-half spread, but I think Nebraska’s first encounter with elite-level talent leaves them entirely out of sync.
Indiana 1H ML (+125) vs. #8 Cincinnati
Indiana +3.5 vs. #8 Cincinnati
12:00 PM EST, ESPN
This spread simply made no sense to me. An Indiana Hoosier squad that got smoked by Iowa playing the #8 team in the country, and the spread is only Cincinnati -4? No idea what’s happening here. The spread opened at Cincy -1.5, but with all the money coming in on the Bearcats, it’s jumped to -4. I’m going to do a double-dip on this game because it feels like such a sucker’s bet.
#22 Auburn at #10 Penn State UNDER 53
7:30 PM EST, ABC
This one hits close to home as a Penn State alumni and someone who hates taking unders. But this just makes sense. Through two weeks, Auburn has thrown the ball 46 times compared to 71 rushing attempts. They bleed the clock and then take deep shots off the run to score big. The problem is Penn State has one of the most talented secondaries in the nation (not biased), and I don’t see a situation where Box Nix slings the rock all over Beaver Stadium in a whiteout and puts on a show.
On the flip side, Penn State OC Mike Yurcich’s air raid offense is taking form, but that was against Ball State. In a much tougher matchup, I think the air raid stalls at times. An off-and-on offense plus a team that bleeds clock equals take the under. I don’t make the rules; just follow them.