4 Betting Trends for the Bengals-Chiefs game you need to know
We have finally arrived at NFL Conference Championship Weekend. I have no idea how any games could possibly top what we witness last weekend, but somehow, championship weekend never seems to disappoint. I’ve never smoked a cigarette in my life (credit to me) but I was tempted to head over to my closest gas station a pick up a pack of heaters after that Bill-Chiefs finished last Sunday.
This week I’m not expecting as many fire works but honestly, who knows at this point. Every game is considered “the game of the year” until the next round begins, so let’s check out four betting trends that you need to know before the Bengals-Chiefs game this weekend.
As always, if you’re going to be betting these this weekend. (And let’s be honest you are if you’re reading this), make sure to do it through the Parx Sportsbook app.
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Kansas City opened at -7 and my first thought when I saw the line was that the Chiefs are the play.
Listen, it pains me to say that. I hate Jackson Mahomes and Britney just as much as the next guy and I’d much rather see sad butt hurt Jackson pour water bottles on fans out of frustration than Britney pour champagne on fans out of celebration.
From the jump the pick seemed like it should be Chiefs -7. Patrick Mahomes is back to being an unstoppable force, leading a drive in 13 second to send it to OT (Dak could never) and marching down the field for the win. The entire sequence looked too easy.
As cool as Cincy and Joe Burrow are, they put up one touchdown last week. You go into KC and put up one touchdown, you’re getting your doors blown off pretty easily.
Buuuuuuuuuutttt, the trends, baby.
The trends are talking to me and they are whispering: ‘pssssssttttt Joe, Bengals +7.5, let’s ride.’
Kansas City is currently listed at -7.5 and so far this season they have been favored by 7.5 or more 5 times and 3 of them being at home.
This season the Chiefs are 0-5 against the spread every time they’ve been favored by 7.5 or more. And only 1-4 straight up in those games. (Insert eyeball emojis.)
And what about the Cincinnati Joey Bs? This year they have been underdogs by 7 points or more 7 times. In those 7 games they are 7-0 ATS and 7-0 straight up. With 6 of those 7 coming on the road!
(Insert 7 pairs of eyeball emojis.)
And there is an obvious fact I’ve glossed over here so far. Cincy beat KC straight up not even a month ago.
Chiefs took a 14-0 lead, Joe Burrow giggled to himself (probably) and threw for 446 yards and 4 touchdowns. But four weeks ago in the NFL and especially for this Chiefs team, might as well been an entire season ago. No one is playing better in the last 3 weeks than KC.
Over the last 3 games Kansas City is averaging 0.528 points per play, that is up from their season average of 0.443. And the most telling is the Chief’s 3rd down conversion over the last 3 games, up all the way to 61.5%.
Once again, I think we are heading into a ‘something has to give’ game here. As good as KC has been on offense the last 3 games, Cincy has been better defensively.
The Bengals are holding opponents to 0.292 points per play, 39% 3rd down conversion and 33% red zone TD scoring.
This is shaping up to be a game you’re going to sweat out until the every end and if you are going to ride the trends you’d have to take Cincinnati +7.5.
If I were going to throw together a teaser I’d even look at 2 team 6 point tease: Cincy +13.5 and Rams +3.
Let’s just hope Burrow does God’s work and eliminates the most insufferable family on planet Earth for us.
Parx Sportsbook cooked up some specials for Conference Championship weekend.
Every Team to Score 1+ FG Boosted from -130 to +100)
All 4 Teams to Score 1+ Rushing TD’s (Boosted from +300 to +400)
Tyreek Hill OR JaMarr Chase to have the most receiving yards this weekend (Boosted +165 to +200)
Mandatory Credit: Cincinnati Enquirer
