The Official TLL Super Bowl Prop Bet Breakdown
Super Bowl Sunday is here which means we’re betting (responsibly) on any and everything. Easily a top 3 sports gambling day of the year. I’ve got roughly 15 plays for the Super Bowl and I’m here to share my favorites with you all because I am a man of the people.
Note: I’ve researched all of these that aren’t up to chance aka the coin flip. So take it or leave, bet what you want or don’t play any.
Coin Flip: Heads (-104)
I know, tails never fails. What a load of bullshit. Of course it fails. Literally half the time tails fails, idiots. And when tails does fail, it’s heads. I always play heads every year, an adrenaline rush like none other and a tone setter for the rest of the game.
National Anthem: Under 95 (-110)
Great break down here, they call her quickie Nicki for a reason.
Opening Kickoff Touchback: No (-122)
This one is a little bit of a surprise because from a 30,000 foot view you’d think yes would be the runaway favorite. But it couldn’t be more incorrect.
We’ve only seen TWO touchbacks in the last 28 Super Bowls. A Staggering trend.
A lot of people will say, then we are due for a touchback. While I agree with the thought process, you can’t ignore a trend that strong.
Any Punt To Result In A Touchback: Yes (+200)
This is a pure value play. It’s the Super Bowl, both teams will be looking to avoid mistakes, aka playing for field position. Last time Sean McVay played in the big game the Rams punted 13 times. Just need one of those to roll into the end zone and we double up our investment.
Burrow Stafford Combine For 600+ Passing Yards: Yes (+185)
Another big value play here. The Bengals are going to throw the ball a ton to have success in this game. Rams defense stops the run which is going to force Burrow to drop back a ton (which is another reason for another prop I’m playing.) The biggest concern is if the Rams get so far ahead and they start running the clock out. But I feel a 3 point game either way. Let’s the boys sling it.
Joe Burrow 36.5 Passing Attempts: Over
Like I just said, Burrow is going to be throwing a ton in this game. The pass rush is going to force Cincinnati to get the ball out early and often.
Expect a ton of quick passes in the slant and screen dink and dunks. Joe Burrow has gone over 36 attempts last two games this post season. Bengals should be chasing a lot of this game too.
Both Teams To Have Field Goals 33+ Yards: Yes (-120)
In door stadium, Cincy’s kicker has a rocket of a leg, both teams will be looking to put up points when they have a chance. This feels too easy.
Tee Higgins 5.5 Receptions: Over (+105)
This one I love. Games this year when Cincinnati has faced a top 10 pass rush, Ja’Marr Chase’s numbers drop and Higgins go up. Once again, if Burrow is getting the ball out early, Higgins is in for a great game.
Cooper Kupp Antime TD: (-122)
He’s a monster, he’s going to score. Set it and forget it.
Burrow 3+TDs/Mixon 75+ Yards: (+650)
Big time reach play here but if Mixon can break one or two big runs you’re looking at a chance here to hit the 75 yards. I’m sold on Burrow getting 3 scores, can Cincy run it. That’s the question.
Cincinnati +4.5 (-110)
I think no matter how this game finishes, it’s going to be a field goal game. I could see LA getting out ahead early and Cincinnati having to fight back. But that’s what they’ve done all season long. They are 7-0 ATS this year when they are dogs of +3 or more AND in those 7 they won 6 straight up.
They got down early in a very hostile Kansas City environment and came back to win. LA won’t have that home field advantage. Joe Burrow and this Bengals team are tough and battle tested. I think they can wins this outright but if you’re going to give me 4.5, I’m absolutely taking it.
Safe betting out there tonight and as always. We ride.