Villanova vs Providence is a game I’ve gone back and fourth on in my brain all day today. Here’s my dilema, the trends are calling and they are screaming Providence but I just can’t stop looking at that line, -9.5 and thinking why in the world is it that high?

It makes no sense what so ever, it’s so high that it tells me that Vegas loves Nova tonight by a ton. A spread that high when you are talking about two top 15 ranked teams tells you that you should ride with the heavy favorite.

But the trends baby, those god damn trends.

Let’s breakdown the situational numbers against the spread here.

Villanova on the season is 13-9 ATS as a favorite and 7-5 as a home favorite. Not too shabby right? Also head to head Nova has covered 6 of the last 8 times they’ve played Providence. Including earlier this year when Villanova covered a four point spread by beating the Friars 89-84.

BUT, one thing to note about that game, Villanova shot the lights out. They were 50.9% from the field and 47.8% from beyond compared to Providence shooting 21.7% from deep. To only beat a team by 5 when the shooting is that staggered tells you the game was much closer than 5 points. Not to mention, Providence has been a beast as an underdog this season.

As an underdog Providence is 7-1 ATS in those 7 games and also 7-1 straight up in them as well. And as an away underdog, a perfect 5-0. As for Villanova, when they have been favored by 9.5 or more this year, 7-6 ATS.

I can’t look away from those types of trends. I’m making my pick Providence +9.5 tonight and if they don’t cover they are DEAD to me.

And if the line scares you but you still want to get some Nova action tonight, little + money parlay for you to take for a spin.

And because I am in such a giving mood, video below has an NBA prop play that I am in love with. Check it out, bet responsibly and most importantly.

Above everything else…..

WE RIDE!!!!!!!!!

Mandatory Credit: USA Today