PGA Championship Betting Preview: Promos, Favorites, Mid-Tiers, and Long Shots
We have finally arrived at the second major of the PGA season. Tomorrow, the PGA Championship will tee off at Southern Hills in Tulsa, Oklahoma.
The PGA Championship will return to Southern Hills for the first time in 15 years. The last time they held the tournament, Tiger Woods beat Woody Austin and Ernie Els to capture the title. Southern Hills is set to play 7,556 yards for a par 70. That’s about 400 yards LONGER than when Woods won the tournament back in 2007.
Weather Report and Course Conditions
Weather conditions are going to be windy, even more so for golfers teeing off earlier in the day. Par 5’s are long and tough to reach in two for any golfer on tour while the Par 4’s are much more manageable. Because of that, I’m looking at players that have a “complete game” and a honed in short game to find success at Southern Hills.
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Jon Rahm and Scottie Scheffler are the favorites to win the tournament, with most books having them locked in with +1200 odds.
Scheffler has four wins in the past three months alone, most notably at Augusta. There’s a reason why he’s the favorite and if you’re looking at top-level odds heading into tomorrow, I would go with Scottie over Rahm who only has one win on tour this season.
The Other Contenders
Rory McIlroy, Jordan Spieth, Justin Thomas, Collin Morikawa and Dustin Johnson fall right into the +1400 and +1800 range. You have to like Jordan Spieth in this group, who’s coming off a win at Harbour Town and a second place finish at the AT&T Byron Nelson.
I also like Justin Thomas, who won the PGA Championship at Quail Hollow in 2017. JT is in desperate need of another major championship and really hasn’t even performed well enough to even compete for one since his 2017 win. McIlroy is another golfer to keep an eye on after finishing second at Augusta and fifth at the Wells Fargo two weeks ago.
Tier Two Options
In the +2000 group, we have players like Cameron Smith, Brooks Koepka, Viktor Hovland, and Patrick Cantlay.
I am a Brooks Koepka guy but after he talked about how tall boy cans at reasonably priced at $18, it’s hard to put any money behind him. You did this to yourself, Brooks. Remember my thing about complete golfers? You have to take a look at Cantlay at +2200.
I love the mid-tier group with Max Homa at +6600 on BetMGM and have zero issues being called a “Homosexual”. There’s great value on Homa heading into the PGA Championship after winning two weeks ago. Homa also has five other finishes this year inside the top 20 and has won three times in the past 15 months.
The People’s Golfer Longshot
As for the long shots, you’d be a fool to ignore The People’s Golfer Keegan Bradley. He has finished 11th or better in five of his last seven starts and his short game continues to improve every time he takes the course.