Are the Phillies Rising or Falling At The 1/4 Mark of the Season? MLB Power Rankings Roundup
The Phillies have now lost consecutive series to the Padres and Dodgers, after perhaps their best stretch of the season, in which they went 5-2 on their recent west coast road trip. It’s hard for this team to get any traction, when the offense and pitching seem to be never clicking at the same time. Let’s not even begin to address the garbage fire that is the defense. The pitching was the problem throughout much of April and now as we inch closer to summer the bats have gone silent.
After struggling to start the season, the Phillies starting rotation has been dominant of late, now have the second highest WAR of any staff in the MLB. But right when key players like Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola have found their groove, Bryce Harper missed four games after undergoing treatment on a partially torn UCL and Didi Gregorius has missed extended time after a collision in the outfield.
Over the last 14 days JT Realmuto is slashing .180/.250/.308 with no home runs and only 4 RBI while one of the better hitters in the NL, Nick Casetellanos, is slashing an anemic .146/.190/.372. The point is that the Phillies are somehow still a top ten offensive team despite missing two starters and two of their all-star caliber bats struggling mightily.
If this team ever clicks in unison, watch out! They are going to be putting up some runs once the weather warms up.
|NL East Standings||W-L||GB||L10||Playoff Odds (FanGraphs)|
Looking at the current NL East standings, things are getting worrying for the Phillies. Im starting to think that 39% is probably too high in relation to their actual playoff chances. All season they have been hovering within a few games of .500, but with another week of below average play they could find themselves more than ten games behind in the NL East before Memorial Day. Their next five series are against the Braves, Mets, Angels, Giants and Brewers, all potential playoff teams.
The Phillies are now just 5-10 against NL East opponents and are a troubling 11-13 at Citizens Bank Park, scoring more than a run less compared to games played on the road.
Despite finding themselves tied for second place and 8 GB of the division leading New York Mets, the Atlanta Braves have almost double the odds of reaching the playoffs, compared to the Phils according to FanGraphs. Even with the new changes to the MLB playoff format, that includes six teams from each league, the Braves may have trouble reaching the playoffs if they can only muster 87 wins for a second season in a row.
At the moment, Los Angeles, San Diego, and San Francisco seem like three of the best five teams in the National League. Unless the NL West ends up devouring themselves, thus keeping their win totals lower than normal, there may only be one remaining wild card spot between the Cardinals, Braves, Phillies, and whoever else gets hot in September.
|R 8th (-)||Starters ERA 15th (+1)||Fielding Pct 21st (-)|
|BA AVG 6th (-4)||Bullpen ERA 21st (+6)||Errors 22nd (-2)|
|OBP 14th (-2)||BABIP 28th (-)||Defensive Runs Saved 30th (-2)|
|WAR 15th (-2)||Starter WAR 2nd (+5)||UZR 24th (-)|
|wRC+ 14th (-2)||Bullpen WAR 12th (-4)||Runs Above Average 27th (-3)|
And now it’s time for the Week 7 Power Rankings Roundup:
|Website||Phillies Ranking||Last Week +/-||Other NL Teams|
|MLB.com||16||16 (-)||Mets 4, Braves 14, Marlins 20, Nats 29|
|TheAthletic.com||15||15 (-)||Mets 3, Braves 13, Marlins, 18, Nats 29|
|CBSSports.com||16||13 (-3)||Mets 5, Braves 15, Marlins 20, Nats 28|
|YahooSports.com||15||16 (+1)||Mets 3, Braves 14, Marlins 21, Nats 29|
|ESPN.com||15||16 (+1)||Mets 4, Braves 14, Marlins 18, Nats 28|
|Sports Illustrated||14||13 (-1)||Mets 3, Braves 15, Marlins 18, Nats 29|
|The Ringer||15||n/a||Mets 4, Braves 14, Marlins 20, Nats 27|
Philadelphia Phillies: 14
The Phillies clinched a win in their season series against the Dodgers when Max Muncy committed a walk-off, two-run scoring error in the 10th inning of Sunday’s game. That was a timely bit of luck, because the immediate road forward hardly gets easier. Philadelphia’s next five series are against the Braves, Mets, Angels, Giants and Brewers.
Philadelphia Phillies: 15
The Phillies were set up to be one of the most fun teams in baseball this year with a lineup full of guys who not only beat the hell out of the ball, but also aren’t shy about crowing about their successes. Unfortunately, things haven’t gone to plan.
The deadened baseball came at the worst time for a team built around the home run. Bryce Harper can’t throw. Kyle Schwarber’s been solid on aggregate, but streaky. And the bullpen, despite Dave Dombrowski and Sam Fuld bringing in reinforcements, is at it again. Like the Blue Jays, Braves, Cardinals, and White Sox, there’s more in the tank here. But the Phillies have been so snake-bit over the past decade that it’s fair to wonder whether they can upshift back into playoff contention.
Philadelphia Phillies 15th
The strong start for Jean Segura, a two-time All-Star with Milwaukee in 2013 and Seattle in 2018, puts him in the running among NL second basemen for an All-Star spot in 2022. He’s hitting the ball harder and with more power than he ever has, without sacrificing anything in his strikeout rate, which remains reasonably low. His average exit velocity of 92.0 mph is way above his career norms (he’s never been above 90) and his hard-hit rate is in the 92nd percentile (with a higher launch angle as well). — Schoenfield
Philadelphia Phillies: 15
Last week, it felt like the Phillies were the greatest lineup ever constructed. They went into Dodger Stadium and pushed around a pitching staff that entered the weekend with the best ERA in baseball. Bryce Harper looked unstoppable — except for his health.
He missed last Sunday’s finale at Dodger Stadium to receive a PRP injection in his throwing elbow, and didn’t play again until Saturday. The Phillies, coincidentally, managed just four runs in a span of four games at one point this week.
For a roster built around its ability to slug, that’s a problem.
The good news: They’ve managed to hang around even in this difficult stage of their schedule (two series each against the Mets and Dodgers along with the Mariners, Padres, Giants, Angels and Brewers) so far. If they can keep up until their schedule lightens, maybe they can make a run at it.
Speaking of: Roman Quinn might still be running from second base after his mad dash to end Sunday’s walk-off victory.
15. Philadelphia Phillies
Inching back up toward the .500 mark, Philly netted a walk-off win in Sunday’s series finale against the Dodgers and then rode another encouraging Zack Wheeler start to a series-opening defeat of the division-rival Braves on Monday. Wheeler missed the first week of the regular season due to a shoulder scare and had some stumbles early on, but the ace right-hander boasts a 1.38 ERA and 40/6 K/BB ratio over his last 32 2/3 innings (five starts) going back to his final turn in April.
16. Philadelphia Phillies
After such a great road trip, they came home and lost four of six. At least they managed to come back and pull a rabbit out of Max Muncy’s hat with the Sunday walk-off.
16. Philadelphia Phillies
Mandatory Image Credit: Philadelphia Phillies