Analysis: Flyer Tracking Returns to Deep Dive into Ivan Provorov And Cam York
The player tracking series–an arduous task which reviews every puck touch of a particular player to analyze their performance–has returned.
And this time, it has an added dimension.
We’re going to review performance in certain measurable aspects of the defensive game.
Not every aspect of a player’s defense can be measured. After all, what coverage a player is ultimately responsible for–and things of that nature–is ultimately up to the coach of that team and the system they prefer. But there are areas of defensive play that can be tracked as easily as a pass or a turnover. I focused on those.
That focus on defensive play led me to some new categories to add to the tracking, and provided me with a more holistic view of the player’s game.
The new categories are as follows:
Denied Entries: When a player attempts to carry the puck over the blueline and gain controlled entry into the OZ, does the tracked player stop them?
My rule for denied entry is that they don’t have to be stopped at the blueline. If they attempt to gain entry, make it past the blueline, and lose the puck on the faceoff circle, I consider that a denied entry. Because they were denied the purpose of the entry, which is to generate offense.
Any denied entry is when a player separates a puck carrier from the puck before they can gain the line and make the next play. Be it a pass or a shot.
Denied Exits: This is better known as “keeping the puck in the offensive zone”.
Forced Turnovers: How many times did pressure you exerted defensively–or through forechecking efforts–result in the opponent turning the puck over?
If the opponent passes it across the ice and it gets intercepted while the tracked player is providing pressure, they’re given credit for forcing a turnover. The logic being: that pressure took away the requisite time to make a better decision or execute more precisely.
Successful Retrievals: When there’s a loose puck in any zone, and you’re attempting to dig it out, how many times do you successfully free that puck from the wall and get it to your team with control?
This is where things like 50/50 battles along the wall can be measured. Any time a player is engaging another player in an attempt to recover a loose puck, are they successful?
Failed Retrievals: Same deal, except how many times did you fail?
If the enemy team has 2 or more players fighting for that puck and you have no team support, you’re not expected–at least by this tracking–to prevail in that battle. So you won’t be charged with a failure if you don’t win the puck.
If you do happen to win the puck over 2 players, you will be credited with a successful retrieval.
In addition to entirely new defensive categories, I’ve also revamped and revised how I handle tracking things like zone exits and zone entries created.
These new categories are as follows:
Passes to Exits: Amount of times your passes–be it immediately or after several more passes–led to exits from the defensive zone with control of the puck.
Passes to Entries: Exact same deal as exits, but with zone entries.
Exit Carries: when you personally carry the puck out of the zone.
Entry Carries: Self explanatory.
THE RESULTS
Ivan Provorov
- 38 Touches
- 27 Passes
- 15 Passes to Exits
- 6 Passes to Entries
- 5 Turnovers
- 2 Carry Exits
- 0 Carry Entries
- 10 Successful Retrievals
- 6 Failed Retrievals
- 2 Forced Turnovers
- 0 Denied Exits
- 1 Denied Entry
- 4 Shots
- 1 Shot Assist
Cam York
- 33 Touches
- 25 Passes
- 15 Passes to Exits
- 9 Passes to Entries
- 2 Turnovers
- 3 Carry Exits
- 1 Carry Entry
- 17 Successful Retrievals
- 0 Failed Retrievals
- 7 Forced Turnovers
- 1 Denied Exit
- 6 Denied Entries
- 4 Shots
- 2 Shot Assists
As a point of comparison, I tracked one of the best defenseman in the league in Adam Fox. Particularly, I tracked his game against the Vegas Golden Knights. The same team these Flyers played against.
Note: this is not meant to make sweeping comparisons of any player’s quality relative to Adam Fox. One would need far more than one game to even dare make such judgements. Rather, this is just meant to provide an example of what another exceptional player can do under the same counting system.
Adam Fox:
- 48 Touches
- 34 Passes
- 11 Passes to Exits
- 7 Passes to Entries
- 4 Turnovers
- 2 Carry Exits
- 0 Carry Entries
- 10 Successful Retrievals
- 2 Failed Retrievals
- 8 Forced Turnovers
- 3 Denied Exits
- 4 Denied Entries
- 4 Shots
- 5 Shot Assists
MY TAKEAWAYS, IVAN PROVOROV:
I find these results to be humorous. Over the summer, the dialogue around Provorov was that his puck handing was poor and his capacity to move the puck was severely limited. And that his defensive game was exceptional.
This was the rationale for giving up multiple draft picks to get a puck mover in Tony DeAngelo, and paying him $5M a year over two years.
These findings would suggest the exact opposite is true.
Ivan Provorov is comfortably above average when he has the puck on his stick. He facilitated exits and entries frequently, frequently enough that Fox didn’t blow him out of the water entirely.
He lacks the high-end touch on his passes to be truly elite, and this results in some excess turnovers. But otherwise, his puck moving is fantastic.
Perhaps more interesting than any comparisons to Fox’s results is a comparison to his earlier results in the same series. Provorov’s results here are right in line with his results in earlier editions, where he was paired with Tony DeAngelo.
Playing with Rasmus Ristolainnen or Tony DeAngelo–a horrid puck mover and an exceptional one–had little to no effect on how he moved the puck.
It was actually Provorov’s ability to make plays on the defensive end which seemed to be lagging behind.
His defense is “solid” in the sense that he doesn’t allow himself to get easily burned or walked by opposing players. But his defense lacks the dynamic stick work to truly kill plays before they can mature, which is essentially inviting scoring chances to come from elsewhere on the ice.
Provorov may not give up much in his own end in the most literal sense, but he does little to actually win the puck back for his own team.
In Ivan Provorov, you have a comfortably above average–I’d even say exceptional–puck moving defenseman with offensive upside that would likely flash in an environment that allows him to play more offense.
To go along with that puck moving and offensive ability, you have a defensive ability that I would call average. And reliable.
His defense won’t actively hurt you, as is the case with so many offensively oriented defenseman. Though he isn’t exactly going to change the game defensively either, which is why playing him with the right partner seems to have such drastic effects on his results.
All in all, I would consider Ivan Provorov to be a top 40 defenseman in the NHL. That makes him a comfortable top-pair guy and an exceptional second-pair guy. Your mileage may vary.
MY TAKEAWAYS, CAM YORK:
I think it’s far too early into York’s career to talk about general prognostications, as I did with Provorov. What he is–and what he will be–has yet to be determined.
But I’ve been extremely impressed with the results so far, including in games I tracked of his last year.
The potential he’s shown is unreal. Particularly, I was most impressed by his adept retrievals.
York’s speed gives him the ability to get to loose pucks faster than other players, and simply avoid ever getting into battles to begin with.
Tortorella’s insistence he be assertive and try to “attack the game” seems to have caught hold in his mind, because 17 retrievals is a truly absurd number. And while I didn’t track retrievals in York’s game last year, I remember enough to know that he deferred to Provorov or his partner for a lot of that dirty work.
Now 0 failures is an unrealistic number that he won’t repeat often. There were a couple lucky bounces that ended up going to teammates rather than the Knights.
But the efficiency is very repeatable.
His improved strength makes him more of a physical threat along the walls, so he won’t get bullied often.
His dynamic stick work allows him to fish out pucks from awkward positions with relative ease. This defensive stick also makes him an extreme threat to break up entry attempts, which he has always shown an affinity for. And that came up here, in this tracking.
His combination of deceptive patterns and slick edges allows him to turn retrievals into breakouts before the forecheck can even reach him. Here’s an example of that:
His sublime puck moving and low turnover propensity is all standard fare for York games.
All in all, it’s too soon to be making sweeping projections for ultimate ceilings. But a general “the sky is the limit” seems appropriate here, and Cam York is a young player that I am very excited about.
The Liberty Yell
Mandatory Credit: Alex McIntyire
