After a disastrous middle of the week with multiple, painful bad beats, Saturday’s bowls and the College Football Playoff turned the tides of my self-imposed curse.

New Year’s Day College Football Results

✓ Alabama Team Total OVER 32.5 (45 points)
✓ OVER 56.0 in Bama/KState (45-20)
✕ Kentucky Team Total OVER 13.5 (0 points lol)
✕ Kentucky +3.0 (L 21-0)
✓ Lotto Parlay (+161) Bama -2.5, Bama TT OV 29.5, UN 36.5 UK/Iowa

✓ TCU 1H +4.5 (W 21-6)
✓ Michigan 2H -4.0 (W 39-30)
✓ Ohio State +5.5 (L 41-42)
✓ OVER 62.0 in OSU/UGA (41-42)
✓ Lotto Parlay (+320) Mich 2H -4.0, OSU +7.5, OV 55.5 OSU/UGA

I vowed to finish the bowl season with a winning record and positive units. That 8-2 day brings me to 16-13 last week with two lottery ticket parlay winners. It’s a great time to be heating up and fading the public as we have four bowl games today before the 2022 National Championship next Monday night. Let’s keep the ball rolling with the final stretch of bowl bets. 

Make sure you’re signing up and taking advantage of all the free bets and risk-free offers for the final slate of college football bowl games today to bankroll your 2023 season.

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ReliaQuest Bowl (Tampa, FL)

Mississippi State (-3) vs. Illinois | O/U 46

The Bulldogs enter the ReliaQuest Bowl with heavy hearts after the passing of legendary college football head coach Mike Leach. The innovator of the air-raid offense was one of the most authentic and creative minds ever to grace the sport. It’s quite the coincidence that The Pirate’s old team will play at Raymond James Stadium, home of the Buccaneers, where the players are 100 percent behind what coach Leach would expect them to do.

You’ve heard Bryce Young and Will Levis’ names among the top gunslingers in the SEC, but Mississippi State QB Will Rogers led the conference with 3,713 passing yards, 34 touchdowns, and seven games of 300 or more yards through the air. The program’s all-time leading passer with 10,428 career yards surpassed Dak Prescott’s mark of 9,376.

Unfortunately, Rogers will be without his top wideout, Rara Thomas, and the second member of the Bulldogs’ lethal running back platoon, Dillon Johnson. Junior Jo’Quavious Marks never exceeded 16 carries in a game but totaled 806 scrimmage yards with nine touchdowns and a 5.2-yard average per carry.

Emmanuel Forbes, PFF’s 10th-ranked cornerback prospect, declared for the draft but intends to play in Tampa. He leads the Bulldogs’ 35th-ranked passing defense (206.8 yards per game), but their defensive leader, safety Collin Duncan, also will enter the draft and his playing status remains doubtful. Mississippi State’s passing attack constantly pressures opposing secondaries, averaging 49.1 pass attempts per game, but Illinois’ defense possesses one of the top-ranked passing defenses in college football.

The Fighting Illini rank first nationally in defensive pass efficiency (89.77) by a wide margin, with Penn State at a distant second (104.01). They’ve also allowed only eight touchdowns all season while intercepting quarterbacks 22 times. However, Illinois’ best cornerback, Devon Witherspoon (PFF’s #2 graded CB), will not suit up as he prepares for the draft.

The first-team All Big Ten defensive back led all of college football with a 33.8 completion percentage against him and 16 forced incompletions. His partner in crime, Sydney Brown, started all five seasons for Illinois and opted out of the ReliaQuest Bowl. Minnesota head coach PJ Fleck compared Brown’s hard-hitting playstyle to Troy Polamalu.

Illinois’ 47-ranked rushing offense, averaging 178.3 yards per game and 4.16 yards per attempt, will battle Mississippi State’s 57th-ranked run defense, allowing 143.6 yards per game but 4.11 yards per carry. However, the leading rusher in the Power Five and workhorse bellcow running back,

Chase Brown will not suit up after totaling 1,883 offensive yards. Brown’s backup, sophomore Reggie Love III, will assume the workload and averages 4.7 yards per carry. With only 59 attempts, he should be fresh to handle a large workload, as Illinois loves to control the time of possession. Against Northwestern, Love rushed for 85 yards on 11 carries and scored a touchdown.

This clash of styles makes for a terrific chess match—Mississippi State’s air-raid offense against the suffocating secondary of Illinois. Despite their 7-3 record, the Fighting Illini lost every game by 8 points or less and led Michigan 17-16 midway through the 4th quarter. However, losing two of Illinois’ NFL-caliber defensive backs against Will Rogers and the Bulldogs’ air-it-out offense spells problems. Not to mention, Chase Brown essentially made up almost half of Illinois’ offense this season.

The Pick:

Mississippi State -3

Goodyear Cotton Bowl Cassic (Arlington, TX)

USC (-2.0) vs. Tulane | O/U 66.0

We have yet another fade the public matchup, folks. With more than 35k tickets counted as of this typing, USC is receiving over 60% of bets placed, but over 75% of the money is on Tulane. Remember yesterday when we had this discrepancy in the Ohio State and Georgia game? It’s time to fade the public once again.

The Trojans come into Arlington after losing the Pac-12 Championship 47-24 to Utah. 2022 Heisman winner, QB Caleb Williams, “feels good” and is expected to play after hobbling all month with a hamstring injury. Williams will be without his security-blanket wide receiver and dynamic running back, even if he is a go.

Oregon transfer RB Travis Dye is out for the season after suffering a knee injury in November’s game against Colorado. The super senior averaged 6.1 yards per carry in his ten games and added 220 more yards through the air. Backup Austin Jones is more than capable of an increased workload, rushing for over 120 yards in two of his last three games, but averaged just 2.3 yards per carry in the Pac-12 Championship.

Arguably the Trojans’ best weapon and Fred Biletnikoff winner, WR Jordan Addison, has a first-round draft potentially but also will miss the Cotton Bowl classic with an ankle injury. Lastly, starting center Brett Neilon and starting guard Andrew Vorhees are out due to their injuries and allowed two combined sacks between them during all of 2022. Neilon earned 1st Team All Pac 12 honors, while Vorhees earned 2nd Team honors.

Defensively, the Trojans come in at full strength and consistently win the field position battle for their offense. USC leads the nation in points off turnover margin (+101) with only six turnovers all season compared to 19 interceptions, the 2nd most in college football. 

The secondary, led by another transfer in CB Mekhi Blackmon (3 INTs) and sophomore safety Calen Bullock (5 INTs), operates the team’s shutdown cornerback and free safety center fielder, respectively. However, the rest of the secondary is less than stellar, ranking 113th in the nation, giving up 266.5 passing yards per game and over 12 yards per completion. 

But that’s how defensive coordinator Alex Grinch (yes, that’s his real name) likes to run his defense. The Grinch’s scheme wants to make opposing quarterbacks uncomfortable with constant pressure and force errant throws that his ball-hawking secondary can take away. 

USC totaled 36 sacks this year, tied for 23rd most in college football, led by junior edge rusher Tuli Tuipulotu. The six-foot-four, 290-pound junior finished as the sack leader in college football, tallying 12.5 sacks and an 18.6% win rate, 7th best in Pac-12. Tuipulotu will decide to declare for the 2023 NFL Draft or return to USC as he currently ranks as PFF’s 123rd overall draft prospect in a loaded edge rusher class.

The Trojans’ defensive ailments manifested themselves in a significant way to end the season. Defending the run has been USC’s Achilles’ heel all season, and they’ve allowed a 100-yard rusher in three of their last four games, including 223 total to Utah.

The nightmare fuel for Trojans’ fans is over their previous seven weeks; the defense allowed over 35 points per game, including a 55-17 win over Colorado. Not a good showing for a unit that will face one of the most efficient and balanced attacks in college football.

The Green Wave totaled 648 yards in their 45-28 thrashing of UCF in the American Athletic Championship. On the season, Tulane averages 35.2 points per game (22nd in FBS) and 433.8 yards per contest (33rd in FBS). Head coach Willie Fritz went 2-11 last season and 1-7 in conference play in his sixth year, trying to revamp this program. Fritz won the AAC Coach of the Year this year, and his team is on the precipice of its first 12-win campaign since 1998 after going 11-2 and 7-1 in conference play.

The Green Wave totaled 648 yards in their 45-28 thrashing of UCF in the American Athletic Championship. On the season, Tulane averages 35.2 points per game (22nd in FBS) and 433.8 yards per contest (33rd in FBS). Head coach Willie Fritz went 2-11 last season and 1-7 in conference play in his sixth year, trying to revamp this program. Fritz won the AAC Coach of the Year this year, and his team is on the precipice of its first 12-win campaign since 1998 after going 11-2 and 7-1 in conference play.

Tulane’s starting quarterback, junior Michael Pratt, is an efficient dual-threat weapon made for bowl games like this one. He’s thrown 25 touchdowns to only five interceptions and finished as the team’s second-leading rusher (395 yards) with another ten scores on the ground.

A preseason candidate for the 2022 Doak Walker Award, RB Tyjae Spears is my X-factor in this game. He finished second in the AAC with 1,376 rushing yards and 15 touchdowns. He became the first Tulane Player and non-quarterback to win the American Athletic Conference Offensive Player of the Year. Spears should have a field day against the Trojans’ struggling run defense that comes into the Cotton Bowl, giving up over 4.5 yards per carry and in the bottom half of college with 25 rushing touchdowns allowed.

Even with a Heisman winner at quarterback and an abundance of talented transfers at the disposal of Lincoln Reilly’s USC offense, the Green Wave brings an aggressive defensive unit led by senior linebackers Dorian Williams (PFF’s 12th-ranked linebacker prospect) and Nick Anderson. Both totaled over 100 tackles. Williams is the heart and soul of the Green Wave’s 20th-ranked scoring defense that surrenders barely over 20 points and holds opponents’ offenses to less than 345 total yards per game with just 3.9 yards per carry.

Led by hybrid safety/slot corner senior Macon Clark, an entire flock of ballhawks and hard-hitting defensive backs fill the Tulane secondary. The 18th-ranked pass defense holds opposing quarterbacks to a 58.4 completion percentage and 188.5 yards per game. Safety Macon Clark and junior cornerback Jarius Monroe (6-1, 205 pounds) earned First Team All AAC honors, while the team’s third-leading tackler, senior safety Larry Brooks (6-0, 200 ponds), attained Honorable Mentionable All-Conference mentions.

We know Lincoln Reilly’s offense will score points no matter Caleb Williams’ health status. So it looks like the key matchup will be Tulane’s offensive line combatting the constant pressure thrown at them by The Grinch. The Green Wave only gave up 25 sacks on the year (tied for 49th best in FBS), with only two of their current starters allowing more than three sacks. 

Left side strong side is a real thing for the Green Wave, with LT Joey Claybrook (6-7, 300 pounds) making the All-AAC second team and LG Prince Pines (6-5, 345 pounds) and center Sincere Haynesworth (6-1, 300 pounds) named first-team all-conference.

Haynesworth and Pines allowed zero sacks in 2022 on 837 pass block snaps, while tackles Joey Claybrook and sophomore Rashad Green (6-4, 300 pounds) gave up nine in 830 pass blocking opportunities. That is a staggering 0.6% sack rate between those four hog mollies.

We have a rare opportunity here where the better defense, more intact offensive line, and betting rushing team is an underdog with some severe pro versus joe action in public betting. Remember always to bet responsibly and keep your bankroll in check, but personally, I will be tossing three times my standard unit size at Tulane today.

The Picks:

Tulane Moneyline (+105) – triple unit wager (don’t be a degenerate like, toss one)

OVER 65.5

Lucky Lucciano Lottery Ticker ~ +550

• Mississippi State LIVE Moneyline
• Tulane +3.5
• OVER 59.5 in Tulane/USC
• Penn State Moneyline