NFL Super Wildcard Weekend Bets: Will Kirk Cousins choke under the bright lights against Danny Dimes and the Giants?
We will keep the middle portion of of Sunday’s Wildcard Weekend betting guide short and sweet after the in-depth betting guide of the Dolphins and Bills.
To recap my bets on Saturday before you tail or fade me, I went 4-4 and had a couple of horrific beats on player props. We’ll put that behind us like Trevor Lawrence did with the first half last night and end the day on a good note with some actual game picks and multiple player props.
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Giants at Vikings (-3.0) | O/U 48.0
In a matchup of first-year head coaches, Brian Daboll and Kevin O’Connell seek their first playoff win in the pair’s second bout in four weeks. In Week 16, Greg Joseph nailed a game-winning 61-yard field goal as time expired to secure the 27-24 victory. History does not dictate the future, but there are a couple of interesting stats from that game.
- Justin Jefferson: 16 targets, 12 catches, 133 yards, TD
- TJ Hockenson: 16 targets, 13 catches, 109 yards, 2 TDs
- Saquon Barkley: 10 targets, 8 catches, 49 yards
- Richie James: 11 targets, 8 catches, 90 yards
- Isaiah Hodgins: 12 targets, 8 catches, 89 yards
Giants’ defensive backs Xavier McKinney and Adoree Jackson missed that game when Justin Jefferson went nuclear. You would think the Giants learned their lesson from that game and double-team Jefferson all game long, but the third-year wide receiver is just that talented.
Vikings’ starting right tackle Brian O’Neill suffered an unfortunate Achilles tear in the week after playing the Giants and will miss the rest of the season. Center Garrett Bradbury returns to the starting lineup after missing the final weeks with a back injury.
Minnesota’s injury report doesn’t end there. Safety Harrison Smith, the longest-tenured Viking, got in limited practices all week, but he will do everything in his capabilities to suit up on Sunday afternoon. If Smith cannot go against New York, the Vikings miss the heart and soul of their defense.
This matchup has the highest total of Wildcard Weekend at 48 points right now. With 100,000 bets counted, a whopping 55% are on New York with over 75% of the money. Minnesota’s run defense ranks 20th in the NFL (123.1 yds/game), while the Giants come in at 27th (144.2 yards/game). Given the Vikings’ offensive line woes, I’m going to side with one of the most dynamic backs in football in Saquon Barkley.
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Saquon Barkley is averaging 5.2 yards per carry over the last three weeks and should be the focal point against a swiss cheese run defense with Harrison Smith hampered. I saved the most shocking stat for last: the Vikings’ pass defense is the 2nd worst in the NFL, allowing 265.6 yards per game.
Richie James Jr quickly emerged as Danny Dimes’ favorite target along with Darius Slayton and Saquon Barkley. Vikings’ nickel cornerback Chandon Sullivan saw a team-high 91 targets and allowed a staggering 79.1% catch rate with 833 yards attributed against him in coverage. Richie James finished 12th in receiving yards (478) and 5th in catch rate (83.3%) among all NFL wide receivers. Without Harrison Smith, it will be a nightmare in the Minnesota secondary.
NYG/MIN Wildcard Weekend Bets:
- Giants moneyline (+130) – thinking Eagles/Giants next week
- Richie James Jr Anytime TD (+270)
- Richie James Jr OVER 48.5 rec yds (-135)
- Saquon Barkley OVER 100.5 rush/rec yds (-115)
- TJ Hockenson Anytime TD (+205)
Bring on the G-Men Lottery Ticket SGP +425
- Barkley Anytime TD
- Barkley 60+ rush yds
- James Jr 45+ rec yds
- Jefferson 80+ rec yds
Featured Image Credit: Stephen Maturen/GettyImages
