It’s time to explain the hottest take that my previously unveiled prospect grading system pumped out. You know the one. The one that had Dalibor Dvorsky as the third-highest score in the draft class. That’s what everyone wants to see, and I don’t blame them.

Listen to a brand new episode: The Liberty Yell #95: The Calm Before The Storm

In truth, Dvorsky is the perfect case study of why I created the system. Dvorsky is the paragon example of a prospect who doesn’t show certain tools that public scouts love and look for, but possesses a wealth of other tools which could easily make up for that deficiency.

But what are those other tools? I hinted at them in the article, but now we’re going to do a comprehensive deep dive into every grade that Dvorsky was assigned. In every case, I’m going to refer back to the meanings of these scores that I laid out in the first article and explain how that score fits for Dvorsky.

Speed: 4.5/10.

4.5-5.5: A limiting factor at the NHL level that will need to be worked around or improved.

Dvorsky lacks foot speed. It isn’t a crippling flaw that would have earned him a 3.0-4. We’ll get into the redeeming aspects of that grade later, but first, let’s establish this: Dvorsky isn’t a burner.

He doesn’t have a separation guy that allows him to pull away from a tenacious backcheck. He’s unlikely to beat any but the most flatfooted defenders wide. He doesn’t cover the entirety of the rink with his skating speed like an Oliver Moore can, or even come close to what Oliver Moore is.

Some people wonder if added strength will eventually correct Dvorsky’s foot speed. While I do expect him to add strength, I find that unlikely. My current guess is that he’s a top-heavy player. Someone with a strong core and upper body, but whose legs genetically lag behind. That limits the amount of power he can put into his stride.

If I had any confidence in him gaining more speed in the future, I’d actually have graded him NHL average. This is an exercise based in part on projection. But I don’t.

I also don’t project him to be crippled by that foot speed. I don’t see Kieffer Bellows (to use a Flyers-relevant example.)

For one thing, Dvorsky has the sort of superpower I’m used to seeing from Sean Couturier or Noah Cates. That will be reflected in his instinct scores primarily, but I think it’s also an important factor in his speed grade. If he’s always around the play and keeps his skating to short bursts for the puck, then his functional speed will be better than his actual speed. It won’t cripple him, which is what the lower grades are reserved to depict.

The other redeeming element of this grade is his ability to win races for loose pucks. I assume this is more about hustle and motor, which would be reflected in his compete grade, but again… this is about creating a style of play where his speed limits him but doesn’t cripple him.

Edgework/footwork: 8.5/10

7.5-8.5: Above NHL average, and potentially projectable to become elite at the NHL level.

I think anyone would agree that Dvorsky’s technical skating form is extremely good. It’s a marvel, given his technical abilities, how his stride doesn’t come with more power already.

His edges and ability to change directions are almost ever-present in his game. For one thing, he pivots from backward to forward skating so nicely that I’m convinced he could give a few defensemen a run for their money. It’s part of what makes his defensive play so translatable. He has the feet to compete against forwards in the rush.

Usually, a lot of the superb dangles that make highlight reels see overmatched forwards as the victim. I don’t anticipate Dvorsky to be a victim of that very often.

A small element that led to Dvorsky’s edgework being so high is just how comfortable he is with taking winding routes through the ice. If you drew some of his routes through the NZ on a piece of paper, you’d think you’re looking at a winding snake. You can’t pull this off so easily if you don’t have great edges and an easy ability to shift your weight.

Then there are those damn spin moves he loves so much. With any chance he gets, he’s going to turn and ward off potential defenders by presenting them with his back. This goes into his edgework because of how quickly he can pull these turns off, responding immaculately to pressure in almost every instance.

His ability to win battles along the walls, which he does routinely, is partially attributable to his ability to keep his feet moving in even the tightest spaces.

He just barely missed being in the elite circles of edgework. Mainly, this was due to me failing to see any instances of truly exploding off of his edges like a Cale Makar or a Connor McDavid would. It’s partly a function of speed, but at the end of the day it goes back to Dvorsky’s “fundamental flaw”: He’s not a very explosive athlete.

But his work with his feet is extremely refined, and if the explosiveness comes around, he’s going to be capable of some insanely high-end stuff with his edgework. Which is why he gets the 8.5

Above NHL average with a reasonable path to something greater.

Hands: 9/10

8.75-9.5: I consider it more likely than not that this trait reaches an elite projection.

Does Dvorsky have elite hands?! What?! There’s no comparison to the stuff he does with what Will Smith does!

I agree entirely. Smith has elite hands, graded higher than Dvorsky’s. And Dvorsky doesn’t really do what Smith does. Yet I still believe his hands have an elite projection.

The big reason for this is that “hands” is one of the more broad categories in this system. There’s a wide spectrum of things you can do with your hands in hockey.

What Will Smith does, deking opponents out of their skates on a regular basis, is elite puck control mixed with a preternatural sense of manipulation. Manipulation is something to judge in the offensive instincts section.

Dvorsky’s lack of manipulation of his game is the other critical factor that has public scouts convinced he’s a middle-six prospect at best. I think he overcomes this because it’s not even one of the 10 categories here. It’s a subsection of a single category, and we’re hinging a prospect’s entire development on just that?!

This is what I meant when I talked about overvaluing certain tools and ignoring others entirely.

If you look at Dvorsky’s handwork for what it is, I think it’s hard not to see elite potential in this category.

His control of the puck is best described as “ridiculous” and bordering on infallible. If you want to see that claim for yourself, it’s mostly all over his tape. You can look up any highlight and see just how frequently he’s corralling difficult passes or keeping control of the puck under duress. But the height of this trait came from his four-goal performance against Germany at the U-18s.

Just watch that. The puck is magnetized to his stick.

This particular grade/tool conundrum brings me back to Ryan O’Reilly. O’Reilly has elite hands. One would never guess it just based on the kind of player he is. But much of his success as a two-way forward is hinged on his ability to both steal the puck and control it with extreme precision. Mark Stone and Sean Couturier are other examples, to varying degrees.

Many of the best defensive forwards in the NHL have high-level control of their sticks, and I think Dvorsky projects to fit right into that mold.

Plus, I mean, come on… who does this and has anything less than great hands?!

I rest my case. Dvorsky’s hands are fantastic and well deserving of the 9 grade.

Balance: 9.5/10

8.75-9.5/10: I consider it more likely than not that this trait reaches an elite projection.

Dvorsky’s balance only makes sense when you consider the traits he is working with. He’s a heavy kid with great control of the puck and extremely comfortable on his edges. Being hard on pucks is the hallmark of his game, and that’s on display every time he laces up skates against players anywhere close to his own age.

Now, in the first article, I mentioned there being some danger of him hitting the peak of his growth and adding no more strength. If he’s an NHL average weight, his balance surely won’t be among the elite in the league.

But I said then that I don’t think Dvorsky is a genetic anomaly who stops growing at 17, and I stand by it here.

It’s the essence of this grade. Dvorsky is most likely to grow. And if he stays heavy, he’s more likely to reach a high level in this trait.

Offensive Instincts: 8.5/10

7.5-8.5: Above NHL average, and potentially projectable to become elite at the NHL level.

Our broadest category, and probably the most controversial trait to score for Dvorsky. Based on his NHLe among men and my own profession that he lacks high-end manipulation skills, it wouldn’t appear as if I’d give him above-average marks… much less a potential elite projection.

The potential elite projection is the easiest part to explain. Manipulation is the only thing missing from this section that Dvorsky would have to develop to reach the next tier. Whenever development is as simple as adding or expanding upon a single element, I leave that door open.

Why I’m confident in the above-NHL average projection? It boils down to three elements: his drive to make a controlled play, his vision, and his poise.

His poise is the easiest to explain. The kid is eerily calm with the puck on his stick. It was the first thing I noticed about him watching him live during the August WJC, where he was only 2 months removed from being 16 in a U20 tournament, by the way.

His work on the power-play makes this apparent. He’ll hang onto pucks and skate around, either inviting pressure or fishing for a seam pass. That willingness to both invite and embrace pressure makes the potential of added manipulation extremely tantalizing.

That PP2 unit for the Slovaks at the August WJC was more successful and efficient than the PP1 unit, and Dvorsky was a large part of it.

Besides the poise and the willingness to really hunt for a lane to get his shot off, look at the fake. Flashes of manipulation. An indication there’s more juice to squeeze out of that element of his game.

His ability to hunt shooting lanes is there. He knows when he has a shot and when he needs to keep working for it.

He also sees his primary defender turn around to track the puck, positions for a one-timer and lets it rip then. That’s how snipers find pockets of high-quality shooting space.

He’s repeatedly flashed an eye and the required touch for high-level passes, even if I think there’s even more room for growth here. The flashes are what I’m looking at. The ability to project.

Defensive Instincts: 10/10.

10: Virtual certainty to be among the high-end NHLers.

I don’t feel obliged to include much of a long-winded explanation here. Other than to say that he’s a forward, the bar for defensive instincts is among other forwards in this class. Most forwards don’t have very mature defensive instincts, especially highly gifted ones.

Dvorsky is the exception to the rule, and it’s what really boosted him on this board.

He’s often a third defenseman, helping his D break pucks out down low. And I mean he gets low. He lives below the goal line sometimes. It reminds me of the Paul Maurice Panthers, watching the center (especially Barkov) be the one to retrieve the puck and make the first pass instead of the defensemen.

Between that and his nose for NZ breakups, his general control of the puck, and his ability to defend the rush better than forwards should be able to… I really expect him to be a fantastic defensive center in the NHL.

Compete Level: 8.75/10.

8.75-9.5: I consider it more likely than not that this trait reaches an elite projection.

Admittedly, elite comp levels aren’t the easiest thing to track. But let’s be honest: good defensive centers really have to show me they aren’t competitive. That’s especially true of someone like Dvorsky, who is willing to deliver hits at volume, even against men. Active on the forecheck, and willing to play through contact. His entire on-puck game is based on inviting physicality.

I don’t think he’s the next Tkachuk brother, and his tenacity doesn’t jump off the page. Those designations are reserved for Benson and Leonard. But beyond the competitive wunderkinds, he isn’t really below anyone else in this realm.

Shooting: 9.5/10

8.75-9.5: I consider it more likely than not that this trait reaches an elite projection.

The kid’s got a cannon.

I jest, but I also don’t feel the need to sell anyone on Dvorsky’s release being amongst the best in this class (of great shooters, at that). I think even his skeptics see the shooting ability.

After Bedard and Michkov, who received an 11 and a 10 grade respectively, I struggle to find anyone in this class whose shot I would definitively put over Dvorsky.

His release is lightning fast and he can pick a corner with the slightest bit of space. Bonus points for having the hands to get that release off and elevate even in heavy traffic.

Conclusion:

Once upon a time, Dvorsky was considered to be among the top-5 prospects in this draft class. Only a tier below Bedard and Michkov and right up there with Fantilli. Fantilli and Carlsson rose to hit another level in their draft year.

Dvorsky stayed great in every setting except Hockey Allskvensan. Despite my own evaluation of his tools, I wouldn’t take him 3. But I’d consider him as soon as 5.

He still has tremendous upside, especially if you take the whole game into account.

Mandatory credit: Photo by Andy Devlin/ Getty Image