6-0 RUN! | NBA Finals Best Bets Today, NBA Picks & Predictions 6.1
Starting out winning our first six bets for the NBA playoffs certainly seems good, but let’s not go and get big-headed.
We need to keep giving out winners, which, thankfully, we were able to find two more bets that have close to no shot of losing.
Nuggets -8.5 | -110 at DraftKings
This play fits one of my NBA playoff betting strategies that has gone 3-0 so far in these NBA playoffs. The strategy is to back the team that has more rest in game 1 of a new series.
The logic there is pretty easy to understand, as the Miami Heat are coming off a grueling seven game series against the Celtics and will have to turn around from playing in Boston on Monday to traveling to Denver and playing the Nuggets on Thursday.
The Nuggets, meanwhile, have had over a week off after sweeping the Lakers. This is legitimately the biggest mismatch in rest that could possibly exist with one series going to seven games, and the other series being a sweep. As mentioned, this strategy is 3-0 so far this postseason.
Sure, the Heat have yet to lose a game 1 in their playoff run, but the Nuggets are on fire at home as well. They are 8-0 at home in these playoffs, with 5 of their victories coming by 9 or more points.
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Nikola Jokic over 27.5 Points | -105 at BetMGM
This play is also offered at -106 at FanDuel if that is your book of choice. Either way, this is a play that I absolutely love.
Not only is Jokic, well, really freaking good, but he also has an extremely plus matchup in this series. The Heat just have nobody on their roster big enough to hang with Jokic physically.
Now, to be clear, there is pretty much no stopping Jokic at all, but with the size advantage Jokic will have over any defender the Heat try to throw at him, he should be able to feast.
Bam will most likely get the Jokic matchup, and sure, yes Bam is a great defender, but his specialty is guarding athletic marvels such as Giannis, not behemoths such as Jokic.
As for Jokic specifically, gone are the days when he isn’t aggressive in trying to find his shot. There was a weird stretch at the end of the season where it felt as though Jokic simply refused to shoot, but that is not the case anymore.
This is a total that Jokic has gone over in 7 of his past 9 games, and with the Nuggets four victories away from winning the NBA finals, the guess here is that Jokic is going to play 40+ minutes as well. So, that leaves ample opportunity for Jokic to cash this over for us.
Mandatory Credit: Sean Gardner | Getty Images