Nuggets vs. Heat Best Bets, NBA Finals Picks 6.7
Our undefeated streak finally came to an end last time you heard from me, narrowly missing out on a 2-0 day by a half point, as we had Jokic over 27.5 points and he ended with 27. Pain
As for today, we start a new streak with two NBA bangers you won’t want to miss. Let’s get into it.
Nuggets -2.5 | -110 at DraftKings
One narrative that I am sick of hearing after the Heats game 2 victory is that they won because they turned Jokic into a scorer, which slowed down the Nuggets’ offense. Here’s the thing, the Nuggets posted a similar offensive rating in game 2 than they had in game 1, when Jokic ended the game with fewer points and more assists, and the Nuggets won.
Also, the Nuggets’ offensive rating of 124.1 in game 2 would have led the NBA over the course of a season by a country mile. To me, the bigger story was, I don’t know, the 36 (!) points that the Heat scored in the fourth quarter.
That fourth quarter included the Heat shooting over 55% from deep, and just under 70% from the field overall. Every single player on the Heat shot over 50% from the field in that fourth quarter, except for Kyle Lowry, who went 0-1.
Of course, the Heat’s entire playoff run has essentially been “unsustainable” hot shooting. The unsustainable is in quotes because at some point if it lasts for legitimately two months, it might just be considered sustainable at that point.
While I understand this is how the Heat have gotten here, essentially by just winning one quarter the whole game, but that being enough to win the game outright, I still feel as though the Nuggets are the better team, better equipped to handle these outbursts from the Heat.
So, overall, the -2.5 feels like a gift since the Heats home court advantage didn’t really exist in the Eastern Conference Finals, as they lose two of three games in Miami to the Celtics.
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Jokic Over 28.5 Points | -110 at BetMGM
I am, once again, asking you to take Jokic’s point total going over. It hit in game 2, and was a half point away from cashing in game 1 as well, and yet it is still a value play.
I know I just went on a rant about how silly I believe the narrative is that the Heat turned Jokic into a scorer being the reason why they won, but you know who might believe that? The Miami Heat, and that is all that matters.
We saw a completely different version of Jokic in game 2, who immediately came out of the gates aggressive and looking for his own shot. In game 1, he only took one shot in the first quarter alone. That was not the case in game 2.
The difference in how the Heat guarded Jokic was they left him more on an island, one on one against Bam, where Jokic has the clear advantage. The guess here is that the Heat will employ a similar strategy, and Jokic will once again get his, as the kids say.
He might not go off for a 40-burger like he did last game, but as long as he gets us 29 or more, we’re good.
Mandatory Credit: Fox News