Friday’s Best MLB HOME RUNS, MLB Picks & Predictions 6.16
With the NBA sadly coming to an end, it is time to start betting on MLB home run bangers and start cashing that way as well.
Admittedly, we have been on a cold streak with these home runs, but betting on players to hit dingers is also a fickle business, so some variance is to be expected. That all changes today with these picks below.
Nolan Gorman to Hit a Home Run | +340 at FanDuel
This is also offered at DraftKings at the same odds if that is your book of choice. Regardless, Gorman is a great bet to get one to go yard for us tonight.
To start with the negative, he is admittedly in a little bit of a slump in the dinger department. He has 15 on the year but only one in his last ten games. That isn’t ideal, but there are a ton of factors in his favor that leads me to believe he will break out of that slump tonight.
For starters, this is a positive weather game for home runs to be hit. Not as juicy as a game at Coors Field, but still net positive for home runs. Pitching for the Mets is Tylor Megill, who is someone you want to be going against if you like home runs.
He has given up 8 on the year in 63 innings pitched and has a HR/FB (home run to fly ball) ratio of just under 12%, which is below average. Gorman himself also has a very good ISO rate (Isolated-Power) of 25.8%, according to FanGraphs.
FanGraphs considers anything above 25% to be “excellent”, so Gorman being at 25.8% is great for us. All in all, Gorman should smash a dong for us tonight and cash this prop.
Shohei Ohtani to Hit a Home Run | +320 at DraftKings
Ohtani’s stats are truly laughable at this point, both his raw counting stats and his advanced numbers as well. On the year, Ohtani has 22 home runs, he has hit a total of seven in his last ten games, and four home runs in his last four games. He has hit one in back-to-back games, and just four days ago, on 6/12, he hit two in the same game. The guy is raking.
Digging deeper into his numbers is even more silly. I mentioned above that anything above a 25% ISO rate is considered excellent. Well, Ohtani has an ISO rate of 32%, which is second in the entire MLB. His barrel rate, which essentially measures how often a batter hits the barrel of the bat, is up at 10.7%. Anything over 9% is considered “excellent” for barrel rate
So, yes, Ohtani is a stud who has been mashing, and getting him for above +300 odds feels like a gift, a gift in which we will gladly take.
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Josh Jung to Hit a Home Run | +560 at FanDuel
This one is admittedly the scariest of the night, but that is also why we are getting +560 odds. As always, let’s start with the scary part first. The Blue Jays have Kevin Gausman pitching for them tonight, and the guy is a stud. He has a low HR/FB, and an ERA of 3.12. I also met him randomly in New Orleans, which is probably why he is so good; no big deal.
With all this said, Jung is a good batter. He has an ISO rate that is at 21.7%, which is considered “great”, and a barrel rate of 7.9%, which is considered “good”. So, all in all, Jung is good at getting solid contact at the plate.
Gausman is a pitcher who pitches gas; that is his specialty. So, the hope here is that Jung can get solid contact on one of Guasmans fastballs and send that bad boy out of the park. For +560 odds, it feels like a good bet to make. Let’s ride.
Mandatory Credit: Dilip Vishwanat | Getty Images