While the Philadelphia Phillies continue to win baseball games, news broke yesterday regarding their No. 1 prospect Andrew Painter and his recovery from a sprained UCL that has kept him sidelined throughout the season.

With the latest news, it’s looking more and more likely that Andrew Painter might not pitch for the Phillies or really, any minor league affiliate this season.

Andrew Painter Undergoing Testing for Right Elbow Discomfort

Painter was sent for “further evaluation” after experiencing elbow discomfort during his rehab assignment.

The Phillies’ top prospect has spent the last four months rehabbing an elbow injury and only made one Spring Training start on March 1st. Painter was initially set to face hitting in live batting practice for the first since since being shutdown in March, but that is no longer the case.

To be clear: Painter didn’t pick up a baseball from the time of his injury in early March until April 10. He then started playing catch before progressing to bullpen sessions at the beginning of June.

According to reports, it looks like Painter could be faced with the decision on whether or not to undergo Tommy John surgery and really, that’s something he and the Phillies’ organization should strongly consider in the very near future.

Obviously, that sucks to hear from the Phillies No. 1 prospect but at the same time, the kid is just 20 years old and elbow surgeries for hard-throwing, young pitchers these days is somewhat more common than it has been in year’s past.

There are 219 pitchers who have appeared in the majors this season who have undergone Tommy John surgery at one point in their career. That’s 35% of pitchers around the league. Since opening day of 2023, at least 28 pitchers ranging from Single A to the majors have had Tommy John surgery, and that’s just the confirmed cases. via Yahoo! Sports

So really, if Painter does in fact need to undergo Tommy John surgery to replace his UCL, then we’re likely looking at a delayed Phillies debut.

Obviously, all pitchers and players are different but here’s a rough estimate on recovery time.
Painter getting surgery now would put his timetable to return to the Phillies for 2025 Spring Training.

It will certainly test the patience of Phillies fans, but when 2025 rolls around, Painter will only be 22 years old as of April 10th.

Trade Deadline Impact: It will be interesting to see what Dave Dombrowski do with their other pitching prospects at the MLB Trade Deadline this season. With the expectation that Painter would be in the majors later this month now lost, does that mean the Phillies will hold back on their other two top pitching prospects in Mick Abel and Griff McGarry?

Interesting development. We’ll see how it plays out. Hope is murky but it certainly isn’t lost.

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