We are now entering the most boring time of the sports calendar, but for the next couple days at least we have the MLB All-Star game events.

For today, that means the Home Run Derby, which we will give our best bets for below.

Longest Home Run Under 490.5 Ft | -125 at DraftKings

I understand taking an under feels lame in this scenario, but the unfortunate reality is that the under is the play here.

The longest home run hit this season so far is 472 feet, by Josh Donaldson on 6/29. If we are looking at the longest one hit by a participant of the derby, that would be Adley Rutschman at 461. Obviously, we should add some distance given the format of this event is to crush the ball as far as humanly possible, but we are still well below the 490.5 number.

Looking at last years derby, which was in Dodgers stadium, the longest home run hit was 482 feet, so a pretty good distance below 490. The 2021 derby isn’t worth looking at, considering it was played at Coors Field and there were multiple 500+ feet bombs hit, but that has never been replicated in any other derby in history.

Going back to 2019 (there was no derby in 2020), the longest home run hit was 476 feet, and in 2018 it was 473.

Lastly, the derby is being played at T-Mobile Park, which is a below-average stadium for home runs. So, all-in-all, the under is your best bet for longest home run.

Longshot Home Run Derby Winner: Mookie Betts | +1800 at FanDuel

I absolutely love the value of getting Mookie to win straight up at +1800 odds, that is a steal at that value. I get that he has a rough path to even get to the finals, but there are reasons to believe in Mookie.

Despite not having a hulking frame you’d imagine from a home run hitter, Betts has great power, and also has one of the most consistent, replicatable swings in the MLB. That consistent swing helps immensely in a format such as the home run derby.

Of all participants in the derby, he has the highest ISO (isolated power) rate at 30.9%. That also puts him as the fourth-highest in the entire MLB. While his barrel rate at 12.8% isn’t considered excellent, it is still considered great by Baseball Savants standards. Definitely worth a sprinkle at +1800 odds!

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Official Home Run Derby Prediction: Luis Robert Jr. | +500 at DraftKings

While he isn’t the betting favorite to win, Robert Jr. is my favorite bet to win the home run derby. For starters, he has the easiest path to get to the finals. The format of the derby breaks up the participants into two sides, and Robert Jr. is, by far, in the easier bracket.

His first round matchup is against Adley Rutschman, who hit a towering home run not too long ago, but is not a consistent home run hitter to be feared. His ISO rate (15%) and barrel rate (6.7%) are far below the rest of the competition.

After that, he will go up against the winner of Adolis Garcia vs. Randy Arozarena. Two good hitters for sure, but a far cry from other side of bracket that consists of: Pete Alonso, Julio Rodriguez, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., and Mookie Betts.

Looking at Robert Jr. specifically, he is the only player participating that is considered excellent in both ISO rate and barrel rate. His ISO rate of 29.8% puts him at fifth-best in the MLB, just behind Betts.

Lastly, he is also on fire. Since June 1st, he has hit the second-most home runs in the MLB, behind only Shohei Ohtani.