2023 MLB All-Star Game Best Bets, MLB Picks & Predictions 7.11
Happy 7/11 day everybody, and let’s hammer some picks for the MLB All-Star game.
Play #1: Game Total Under 7.5 | -120 at BetMGM
Unsurprisingly, the All-Star game format generally lends itself to the pitchers, and tend to be lower scoring. Due to this fact, the total has gone under 7.5 in the last three All-Star games, and also in five of the last six.
This includes the 2021 All-Star game which was played in the most hitter-friendly park in the MLB at Coors Field, and it still went under 7.5.
Another factor in favor of the under is the location of this game, being played in Seattle at Mariners stadium, which is generally regarded as a pitcher-friendly park. According to Baseball Savant, T-Mobile Park has limited scoring by 14% from 2021-2023, which is the most in the MLB.
They also rank as the worst park for overall offense during that time as well, with a park rating of 93 (100 is average). Overall, the format of the All-Star game just favors pitchers.
The pitchers normally don’t pitch more than 1-2 innings, which means the batters are constantly going up against fresh arms, and also the batters don’t have the benefit of going up against the same pitcher for multiple at-bats.
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Play #2: No-Run First Inning | -130 at BetMGM
Along with the under, we are also playing the NRFI as well. Obviously, the entire writeup about this game favoring the pitchers for the under applies NRFI too.
Looking historically, the NRFI is 4-1 in the last five All-Star games. YRFI hit last year, and then no run was scored in the first in the past four games after that, once again including the game played at Coors Field.
The starting pitching matchup for this game will be Zac Gallen for the NL, and Gerrit Cole for the AL. Naturally, both pitchers are studs, which is why they are starting in the All-Star game in the first place #analysis.
Gallen is just as solid in the first inning as he is overall, starting 18 games so far this year and only giving up a total of 4 runs in the first inning. Cole is a little scarier, also starting 18 games but giving up a total of 7 runs in the first inning, but this format is a little different, knowing that he will only be pitching the first one or two innings.
Mandatory Credit: Getty Images