How to bet Orioles vs. Phillies | MLB Picks & Predictions 7.24
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degens fans looking for some action in the Phillies game tonight against the Orioles, look no further.
I have two plays for us to lock in for the game tonight, both of which are player props of the +money variety.
Dean Kremer Over 5.5 Strikeouts | +114 at FanDuel
Now let me be clear, this is not me telling you I think Kremer is going to have a good game tonight. In fact, I actually think he’s going to get shelled. The thing is, though, is that he can get to 6 strikeouts while still getting rolled.
In terms of strikeouts specifically, I love backing Kremer in this spot. He had gone 10 straight starts with 5+ Ks, before losing that streak in his most recent start. In that 10-game stretch, he had exactly 5 strikeouts four separate times, so he has consistently been right around this number.
This is a play because of how often the Phillies have been striking out recently, and depending on what the lineup looks like, we could get 5-7 strikeout guys in the lineup that strikeout over 25% of the time.
With Schwarber and Bryce Harper both over 30%, you are getting essentially 4 Ks guaranteed between the two of them. Getting to six shouldn’t be too difficult for Kremer.
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Nick Castellanos to Hit a Home Run | +400 at FanDuel
Next up, we have our favorite home run prop of the game. Schwarber is always a good bet, but his odds are also down to +240 so there was no value there. Castellanos, on the other hand, does represent some value at +400.
It has admittedly been a slow start post All-Star break for Casty, but there are plenty of reasons to believe that will turn around tonight. For starters, this home game for the Phillies features the juiciest weather game, specifically for home runs to be hit, of the entire MLB slate tonight, according to Ballpark Pal.
While I do like Kremer to go over his strikeout prop, he is also a pitcher that you want to target for batters to hit home runs. He has a HR/9 of 1.82, which is quite bad, and he allows the 8th-highest barrel rate in the MLB of all qualifying starting pitchers, and the 4th-highest HardHit%, according to FanGraphs.
All-in-all, Kremer is easily mashable, and Castellanos should be able to get one to go yard for us tonight.
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