It’s that time of the year when we start to dive into season-long NFL picks, which means football is just around the corner.

For this one, I have my favorite NFL player prop play for the season.

Before we get into it, we have great offers to get you some free money to bet with.

FanDuel: Get $200 + $100 Off NFL Sunday Ticket

• Sign up for a new FanDuel account
• Make Your First Deposit
• Bet $5+ On Any Sport
• Receive $200 + $100 off NFL Sunday Ticket code

Claim your NFL Sunday Ticket code here >>

PointsBet: 5 Second Chance Bets Up To $100 Each

• Sign up for a new PointsBet account
• Make a first-time deposit
• Place five (5) cash wagers up to $100
• Receive any losing wagers back in Bonus Bets

Claim your second chance bets here >>

DraftKings Sportsbook: Bet $5, Get $200 Instantly

• Sign up for a new DraftKings account
• Make Your First Deposit
• Bet $5+ On Any Sport
• Receive $200 In Bonus Bets Instantly

Claim your free $200 now >>

Jalen Hurts Over 3600.5 Passing Yards | -115 at FanDuel

Not to be a homer, but this over is an incredible play. I would describe this as a hammer, but just keep in mind that your money will be tied up over the course of the season, so that needs to be something that you are comfortable with.

With that said, I love this play. The math behind the yardage would mean Hurts (if he plays all 17 games) would need to average 212+ passing yards per game to cash this over. Even if you bank in the fact that he will miss two games next year, as he did this past year, that would mean he would need to average roughly 240+ passing yards per game to go over.

Well, the thing is, Hurts did exactly that literally last year. He missed two games due to the injury to his throwing shoulder and still went over this yardage mark. He averaged 247 passing yards per game, and that also includes the Week 18 matchup against the Giants, in which the Eagles had an incredibly vanilla game plan.

Plays like these are why @JalenHurts just got paid. 💰 pic.twitter.com/gzONDWvqfT

— NFL (@NFL) April 17, 2023

Now I am not going to sit here and say that the Eagles are going to have the same level of success that they had last year. In fact, I’m actually counting on them to take somewhat of a step back in 2023 compared to the ridiculous success they had in 2022.

The reality is the Eagles were always unlikely to sustain that level of success. For starters, they were remarkably healthy all year, and they also had a pancake schedule. This year, they will likely fight through more injuries, and they also have a relatively brutal schedule.

With that said, due to the Eagles’ success last year, Hurts barely needed to throw the ball! In the 15 games that Hurts started, the Eagles held a lead at halftime in 13 of those games and had a double-digit lead in seven of 15.

Essentially, the Eagles were so successful last year that Hurts barely needed to throw the ball, especially in the second half of games. 15 QBs attempted more passes overall than Hurts, and if you look at passing attempts per game, 20 QBs had more than Hurts.

Isolating to the second half specifically, Hurts averaged 11 pass attempts in the second half of games, and his 167 total passing attempts in the second half ranked below QBs that didn’t start the entire season, such as Carson Wentz (lol), Jacoby Brissett, Baker Mayfield and Andy Dalton.

While yes, it is unlikely that Hurts has the same success in terms of efficiency and QB rating as he did last year, it is also significantly more likely that the Eagles will need to pass more than they did last year, specifically in the second half.

Passing attempts = passing yards, and the fact that Hurts already accomplished this last year is a great sign for him to come through for us once again.

Jalen Hurts has received the most tickets and money to win NFL MVP over the past month @CaesarsSports 👀

He's currently +4000 to win the award pic.twitter.com/BjzKVbN0vk

— Action Network (@ActionNetworkHQ) May 9, 2022

Mandatory Credit: Icon Sportswire