A word on the Travis Konecny contract rumors

Travis Konecny will almost surely sign an extension when he becomes eligible for one on July 1st or shortly after that. Every single indicator is pointing in that direction.

According to Elliott Friedman, the Travis Konecny contract will be a “big number.”

Friedman on 32TP: "I believe the Flyers and Konecny are talking about this extension, I believe they've made it a priority and they're going to try and get it done. It's going to be a big number"

— NHL Watcher (@NHL_Watcher) February 9, 2024

That’s vague, but Anthony DiMarco went into greater detail.

This X post is a screenshot, but it captured all of the relevant material:

he’s signing a big deal this offseason, dude . pic.twitter.com/rby5L7tz06

— dfuzecr (@dfuze_cr) February 15, 2024

The number will be somewhere in the $9M+ range. I think some people are holding out hope that he’ll sign in the 8s or even the 7s based on recent comparable deals.

But Konecny’s deal will be put into effect after next year. That means it’ll go into effect 2 years after Meier’s deal for $8.8M. And what happened in those intervening 2 years?

The cap went up significantly… twice. So if Meier and Konecny are comparable in age, production, and position… then Konecny will make significantly more. That’s how he’ll be comparable by cap percentage.

I’m not going to beat around the bush here. There are zero circumstances in which I’m even remotely comfortable with signing that deal as the Philadelphia Flyers.

A lot of people have said, “If you wow me with a trade offer.”

I’m not there at all. My position is: that by simply not signing Travis Konecny to an extension worth $9M, the Flyers are winning out.

Forget the trade return. Forget any of it. For a team whose GM and POHO say is rebuilding? For a team that isn’t comfortable with buying at the deadline despite holding a playoff spot through 54 games?

To save $9M of cap space is a preferable alternative to having Travis Konecny.

You might say that he’s the best player on the team. And I would agree with you. My response to that is: who cares?

He’s the best player on this team. A team that has failed to engender genuine belief in its front office despite racking up wins. A team that will look to sell at the deadline, or God help us, stand pat and do nothing. That would be their version of aggression in the name of a playoff push.

Travis Konecny may be the most shiny piece of copper spread out on cement, but that doesn’t make him a bar of gold.

If he were the best player on a contending team and “keeping the band together” was imperative? Then you’d have a point. We’d have to pay up to keep our best player, and I would support it. I wouldn’t write a single word to this effect.

But that isn’t where we are. This isn’t my assessment. It’s Danny Briere’s. So, there is no debate on this assessment. At least not an effective debate. It’s simply the reality with which the organization claims to be grappling.

Flyers fans want to be there. I understand that. I don’t say that with any pretentiousness. I am earnestly saying: that I get it.

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After this team has had the shit kicked out of it for 3 years, you want to believe in it. You want to believe in this roster and the roster immediately ahead of us. You want to know that there’s a reason to set your television on a Flyers game beyond simple masochism or undying devotion, and this team has provided it.

You’re not wrong for wanting any of it. You’re not wrong for being apprehensive about taking a step back. After all, this organization has been on a steadfast track backward for the last decade plus. And especially the last few years. It’s time for change. It has to be. Right?

I’d argue: no. I’d say that we’ve already had this argument and it’s already been settled. We just don’t want to admit it.

It wasn’t too long ago that the conversation was about giving Johnny Gaudreau $9M. In the interest of full disclosure, I was in favor of that.

I didn’t believe that the organization was willing to stomach an actual rebuild, and I wasn’t prepared to lose out on the possibility of not having a player whose best seasons are Hart trophy caliber.

Gaudreau signed with Columbus, and Chuck Fletcher proclaimed that they were never “in on” Johnny Hockey.

This inaction was applauded by many of the same people who want to fork up cash for Travis Konecny. The argument was: “We are not a Johnny Gaudreau from Stanley Cup contention.”

Fair enough. We have to steer ourselves and focus on the future. I understood the message. But now I’d like to flip it right back on everyone else.

We are not a Travis Konecny from Stanley Cup contention.

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While I’d say I was, on balance, wrong to support the Gaudreau as vociferously as I did. I’d also argue that I’d still rather have Gaudreau making $9M for 4 more years than Konecny making $9M for 8 more years.

I think, on a fully logical assessment of the facts, you’d agree with me. The math is pretty simple. It’s concrete. But this isn’t a question of math for people, and once again, I understand that. 

I don’t say this with any condescension. Travis Konecny is ours. He’s here. He’s here to celebrate the good times, as relatively infrequent as they’ve been. He’s here to endure the bad times as woefully abundant as they’ve been.

If Travis Konecny does not stay in Philadelphia, it will be treated as a loss. That’s different than Johnny Gaudreau, who simply was an addition that never happened. There was no emotional attachment to Gaudreau as there is to Travis Konecny.

I completely get that. But while that’s understandable, it can not be the basis on which this decision is made.

A lot of the people in favor of extending Konecny want someone to wow them with a truly absurd trade return. That’s not a logical request. That’s an emotional one. You’re looking for something to immediately fill the void left by Travis Konecny.

Again, that’s justifiable. You’re not wrong or foolish for thinking that way. It’s human nature. But it’s the wrong perspective.

To not keep Travis Konecny for premium money is a win for the future of the Flyers. To get future assets in return for Travis Konecny? That’s another win afterward.

In truth, to extend Travis Konecny or not is something of a watershed moment for this franchise. It will tell me whether GM Danny Briere is as good as his word. If he doesn’t, then he was honest and earnest in his desire to truly build for the future of this team. That’s especially true if he trades him this summer.

If he does? Then it was all lies. This team isn’t rebuilding. This team is doing what it’s always done: sputtering in the wind and contending unsuccessfully with perpetual mediocrity.

To give in and extend someone like Travis Konecny is what teams with a mediocre mindset do. Not teams who have what it takes to win something meaningful in this league.

How many of you mocked the Islanders for trading a 1st and a prospect to acquire Bo Horvat? They were just determined to close their eyes to what needed to be done. They were giving up future assets for an aging player who wasn’t a superstar.

That’s exactly what extending Travis Konecny is.

“But Derek, that doesn’t make any sense, we aren’t giving up future assets…”

Yes, you are. It’s called opportunity costs. The opportunity cost of failing to trade Travis Konecny is likely greater than what the Islanders gave up for Bo Horvat.

There’s no 4D chess over in New York. They’re just scared of doing what it takes to create a perennial contender. The question that the Flyers need to answer is: Do they possess any more intestinal fortitude than the Islanders?

Mandatory Credit: (Photo: Kyle Ross / USA Today)