3 Headed Monsters: Looking at the Phillies Top 3 rotation pitchers from 2011 and 2024

In case you’ve been living under a rock the Philadelphia Phillies are the best team in Major League Baseball. Guided by a high-powered offense and dominant pitching in the rotation and bullpen, the Phillies are 43-19 on the season and a ridiculous 26-9 playing at home in Citizens Bank Park while currently holding a 7.5 game lead over the second-place Atlanta Braves. 

Anchored by Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola, the Phillies starting rotation has arguably been the most dominant in all of Major League Baseball. They lead MLB in ERA (2.69), innings pitched (368 1/3 innings) and strikeout rate (24.8%) – which will only get better after they the stat-boys factor in Aaron Nola’s start today.

MLB starting pitcher ERA leaders:

The Phillies have four of the top 21 leaders in ERA.

• 1. Ranger Suarez – 1.70
• 7. Zack Wheeler – 2.23
• 13. Cristopher Sanchez – 2.71
• 21. Aaron Nola – 3.03

Phillies Starting Rotation: 2024 NL Cy Young Predictor

Bill James and ESPN.com’s Rob Neyer has a method based on past results, to predict Cy Young balloting. The page linked above provides an in-season snapshot of the Cy Young “race,” as figured by the following formula: Cy Young Points (CYP) = ((5IP/9)-ER) + (SO/12) + (SV2.5) + Shutouts + ((W6)-(L2)).

Listen, I couldn’t really tell you how that formula works outside of what’s on the ESPN website but the important part is The Fightins own the Top 3 spots in Neyer’s math machine.

Quick shoutout to Ranger Suarez: The current National League Cy Young frontrunner holds the lowest ERA in Major League Baseball (1.71), the lowest(0.80) WHIP and the second lowest batting average against at .167. Suarez also has the most wins in Major League Baseball (9) and the fifth highest pitching bWAR.

Zack Wheeler just improved to 7-3 with a 2.23 ERA after the Phillies beat Rhys Hoskins and the Milwaukee Brewers on Monday night. He leads all of Major League Baseball in quality starts (10) out of 13 opportunities. Wheeler has pitched to a 0.97 WHIP with 91 strikeouts in 80.2 innings this season, all of which rank Top 10 in the league.

As for Aaron Nola, he’s been dominant as well. He’s 7-2 on the season with a 3.03 ERA over 77.1 innings pitched. As I’m typing this, Nola is on the mound and has tossed six innings against the Brew Crew, allowing just one hit while striking out five. He’s thrown 71 pitches – 52 of them for strikes. His ERA is definitely going to drop after today is all said and done – making his own numbers and the Phillies rotation look even more insane. 

The Last 3-Headed Monster in Philadelphia

So how do the 2024 Philadelphia Phillies starting rotation stack up against other franchise greats? Well, you don’t have to look back much further than the 2011 season where the Phillies rotation featured three of Major League Baseball’s best pitchers in Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, and Cole Hamels.

Phillies 2011 Rotation Cy Young Results

• Roy Halladay: Second
• Cliff Lee: Third
• Cole Hamels: Fifth

Somehow, Los Angeles Dodgers ace Clayton Kershaw managed to commit highway robbery and runaway with the 2011 NL Cy Young Award. He received 27 out of the 32 possible first-place votes.

Roy Halladay finished with four first place votes and Ian Kennedy managed to grab one. Yes, Cole Hamels and Cliff Lee both finished with ZERO first place votes.

Some will say (aka myself) unbiased that Roy should have gotten the honors for the NL Cy Young Award in 2011 – which would have marked his second straight.

Halladay only trailed Kershaw in one major category (wins) trailing the winner 21-19.

Relax kids, I know that “wins” don’t define a pitcher. Look at Taijuan Walker last season. Nasty stuff. Halladay separated himself on several other key stats.

Roy Halladay ROBBERY via Clayton Kershaw

Statistic	Roy Halladay	Clayton Kershaw
Wins	19	21
ERA	2.35	2.28
FIP	2.20	2.47
xFIP	2.71	2.84
WAR	8.2	6.8

Roy appeared in one-less start and finished with three more complete games. He had 19-less walks and gave up 34-more hits. I could go on and on but honestly, a full 2 POINTS higher in WAR is enough for me to take the cake.

Cliff Lee

Cliff Lee finished June 2011 with 42 innings pitched and just one earned run allowed — good for a 0.21 ERA. It is the second best ERA for a month stretch with at least five starts since 2000.

Overall, Lee went 17-8 with a 2.40 ERA during the 2011 season over 232.2 innings pitched.

He posted a near 26 percent strikeout percentage and a 1.03 WHIP.

Lee threw 6 shutouts in 2011. That was more than 27 teams! No other National League team had more than five that season.

Deep Cliff Lee Cut: He should have posted 8 shutouts that season. He went 8.2 shutout-innings against the Reds before loading the bases and getting pulled and gave up a game-tying home run on an 0-2 count with 2 outs against the Marlins – settling for a 9-inning outing, allowing one earned run in a no-decision.

Cole Hamels

It’s always weird saying that Cole Hamels was a distant third in anything but in 2011, he definitely was behind both Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee. Hamels posted a 19-9 record with a 2.79 ERA while throwing three complete games. He had a 0.99 WHIP with a 6.4 WAR – which nearly tied Cy Young winner Clayton Kershaw’s 6.8 WAR.

So…Who’s Better?

I’m going to have to go with 2011. Roy Halladay was completely robbed of winning the NL Cy Young that year and it should have been a back-to-back award winning season. Pair that with the ridiculous stretch from Cliff Lee and the rock solid Cole Hamels, that’s tough to beat.

Baseball was a different beast back then and these guys were workhorse pitchers. All those complete games? Bet. I’ll take that over ANYTHING in 2024 and that’s obviously no slight to what the Phillies and their starting rotation have done so far this season.

Drew Smith Chiming In with an EDITORS NOTE rebuttal: It’s tough – but you have to go 2024 Phillies…so far. We’ll see how the final voting ends up for the National League Cy Young Award. Thankfully, it doesn’t look like any Dodgers pitcher will be able to rob us this time around.

Listen, as Dunph mentioned, obviously Major League Baseball is a different animal in 2024 compared to 2011. If I had my choice of what “monster” I would want leading my rotation, it’s incredibly hard to argue with the 2011 crew but the key factor here is that Ranger Suarez is having the best season in the rotation in 2024 for the Phillies and he’s our No. 3 starter.

Join The Chase