Red October: Phillies poised to clinch NL East, postseason seeding, and what to watch this weekend

The Philadelphia Phillies are in cruise control heading into tonight’s NL East showdown against the New York Mets at Citizens Bank Park.

The Phillies are leading the NL East by 8 games over the Mets and holding a 99.5% chance to win the division according to FanGraphs.

Phillies Standings:

They could clinch a postseason berth as early as Monday, with the division title in sight. But tiebreakers will play a crucial role in determining their seeding as the calendar flips over to a little thing we like to call Red October here in Philadelphia.

Here’s where the Phillies stand on tiebreakers:

• Win tiebreaker vs: Dodgers, Padres
• Lose tiebreaker vs: D-backs, Braves
• Tiebreaker TBD vs: Brewers (3-0, 3 games left), Mets (4-2, 7 games left)

The Phillies already hold a key tiebreaker advantage over the Dodgers and will clinch the tiebreaker against the Brewers if they win just one of their three games from Sept. 16-18. Meanwhile, they’re also in good shape to wrap up the season series against the Mets with seven games remaining.

With the division all but secured, the Phillies’ focus shifts to staying healthy, finishing strong, and positioning themselves for a deep playoff run. Nothing else matters at this point.

Outside of the Phillies, here are other key series this weekend that you should be watching in the National League this weekend.

Milwaukee Brewers at Arizona Diamondbacks

Pitching Matchups:

• Freddy Peralta vs. Eduardo Rodriguez
• Tobias Myers vs. Brandon Pfaadt
• DL Hall vs. Ryne Nelson

Milwaukee Brewers:

The Brewers are on the verge of clinching the NL Central, sitting 9 games ahead of the Cubs and boasting a 99.9% chance to win the division, per FanGraphs. With the division nearly wrapped up, Milwaukee is focused on securing a top-two seed in the National League. Tiebreakers will play a pivotal role as they push for favorable playoff positioning.

Here’s how the Brewers stack up:

• Win tiebreaker vs: Braves, Cubs
• Lose tiebreaker vs: Dodgers, Padres
• Tiebreaker TBD vs: Phillies (0-3, 3 games left), Mets (3-0, 3 games left), D-backs (0-0, 7 games left)

Milwaukee still has a chance to improve their seed, but losing the tiebreaker to the Dodgers hurts. They will also lose the tiebreaker to the Phillies if they drop any of their upcoming games in a three-game set from Sept. 16-18. However, they hold key tiebreaker advantages over the Braves and Cubs, giving them some breathing room.

Clinch scenario: The Brewers can secure a postseason berth as early as Monday. From there, they’ll look to lock in their seeding and prepare for October.

Arizona Diamondbacks:

The Diamondbacks are making a strong push for the postseason, sitting 5 games behind the Dodgers in the NL West. While their chances of winning the division are slim at 0.9%, they have a solid 93.2% chance to secure a playoff spot. Tiebreakers could make all the difference as they head down the stretch.

Here’s where the D-backs stand on tiebreakers:

• Win tiebreaker vs: Phillies
• Lose tiebreaker vs: Braves, Mets, Dodgers
• Tiebreaker TBD vs: Padres (5-5, 3 games left), Brewers (0-0, 7 games left)

The biggest tiebreaker to watch is against the Padres, with both teams fighting for playoff positioning. The D-backs and Padres are tied in their season series, and they’ll face off in a three-game showdown to end the regular season from Sept. 27-29.

Los Angeles Dodgers at Atlanta Braves

Pitching Matchups:

• Landon Knack vs. Spencer Schwellenbach
• Jack Flaherty vs. Chris Sale
• Walker Buehler vs. Charlie Morton

Los Angeles Dodgers

The Dodgers are in prime position to lock up the NL West, leading the Diamondbacks by 5 games with a 97.5% chance to win the division, according to FanGraphs. While they’re all but certain to make the playoffs, tiebreakers will play a key role in determining their seeding.

Here’s where the Dodgers stand:

• Win tiebreaker vs: Brewers, Mets, D-backs
• Lose tiebreaker vs: Phillies, Padres
• Tiebreaker TBD vs: Braves (3-0, 4 games left)

The Dodgers have an important tiebreaker advantage over the Brewers, which could help them secure a top-two seed in the NL. However, they lose out to the Phillies and Padres, which could affect seeding if those teams finish with similar records. The final tiebreaker to be determined is against the Braves, and the two teams face off four more times, starting on Sept. 21.

Atlanta Braves

The Braves are deep in the hunt for a Wild Card spot, trailing the Phillies by 9 games in the NL East and sitting just 1 game behind the Mets for a playoff berth. With a 55.6% chance to make the postseason, tiebreakers will be key as they navigate the final stretch of the season.

Here’s how the Braves stack up in tiebreakers:

• Win tiebreaker vs: Phillies, D-backs, Cubs
• Lose tiebreaker vs: Brewers, Padres
• Tiebreaker TBD vs: Mets (5-5, 3 games left)

The most critical tiebreaker is against the Mets, who hold the final Wild Card spot. The two teams are tied in the season series, but they’ll square off for a three-game set in Atlanta from Sept. 24-26. The winner of that series will hold the tiebreaker, which could decide who claims the final Wild Card spot.

Don’t forget about the San Diego Padres

The Padres are still in the thick of the NL playoff race, sitting 5.5 games behind the Dodgers in the NL West. While their division chances are slim at 1.8%, they have a solid 93.2% shot at securing a playoff berth. Tiebreakers will play a major role in determining their postseason fate.

Here’s how the Padres’ tiebreakers shake out:

• Win tiebreaker vs: Braves, Dodgers, Brewers
• Lose tiebreaker vs: Mets, Phillies
• Tiebreaker TBD vs: D-backs (5-5, 3 games left)

The biggest tiebreaker for the Padres will be against the D-backs, who are close behind in the standings. The two teams are tied in the season series, and their three-game showdown in Arizona from Sept. 27-29 will determine who claims the tiebreaker.

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