2024 NLDS: New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies – Series Preview

The Phillies and Mets have been division rivals for 63 seasons, yet they’ve never met in the playoffs. That streak is about to end— with the Phillies set to play host to their NL East rivals beginning today at 4:08 pm for Game 1 of the 2024 NLDS at Citizens Bank Park.

New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies – NLDS

• Game 1: Saturday, October 5 / 4:08 p.m. / at Citizens Bank Park
• Game 2: Sunday, October 6 / 4:08 p.m./ at Citizens Bank Park
• Game 3: Tuesday, October 8 / TIME TBA / at Citi Field
• Game 4: Wednesday, October 9 / TIME TBA / at Citi Field (If necessary)
• Game 5: Friday, October 11 / TIME TBA / at Citizens Bank Park (If necessary)

After a whirlwind of travel that saw them hop from city to city—wrapping up a series against the Phillies in New York, heading to Atlanta for a doubleheader that was interrupted by Hurricane Helene, then jetting off to Milwaukee—the New York Mets have somehow managed to keep things together and are running hot into South Philly this weekend.

The New York Mets are riding a wave of momentum into the NLDS, thanks to two clutch comebacks in the past week. Francisco Lindor’s late-game heroics against the Atlanta Braves on Monday secured their playoff spot, and Pete Alonso’s go-ahead three-run blast in Thursday’s Game 3 against the Brewers sent New York to South Philadelphia for the NLDS.

The Phillies faced a similarly grueling road stretch at the end of the 2022 season, hitting three cities—Chicago, Washington, and Houston—before tearing through the playoffs. From late September to mid-October, they barely saw home but were still unstoppable until the World Series.

The Phillies know that anything can happen in October, especially in a five-game series. Just ask the Braves—the 101-win and 104-win versions that were bounced by the Phillies in back-to-back years, each in four games.

This year’s version of the Red October Fightins are arguably the best-equipped top seed to handle a hot wild-card team like the Mets, heading into the NLDS. They’ve been on both sides of this situation, having made deep playoff runs after starting in the Wild Card round in both 2022 and 2023.

That experience should provide them unique insight into the momentum the Mets are carrying after their thrilling Wild Card Series win over the Milwaukee Brewers this week.

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Whether that experience translates into an edge on the field remains to be seen, but lets be very clear. The Mets are playing the Phillies. Not the other way around.

The Phillies’ rotation is built to cool down the hottest of hitters and a well-rested, “playoff built” lineup with the first two games of the NLDS being played at the loudest Major League Baseball ballpark in October, Citizens Bank Park.

The Phillies Starting Rotation:

1. RHP Zack Wheeler (31 GS, 16-7, 2.56 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 213 K, 193.2 IP)
2. LHP Cristopher Sánchez (31 GS, 11-9, 3.32 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 153 K, 181.2 IP)
3. RHP Aaron Nola (32 GS, 13-8, 3.52 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 190 K, 194.1 IP)
4. LHP Ranger Suárez (26 GS, 12-7, 3.15 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 143 K, 148.2 IP)

Zack Wheeler

If it hadn’t been for Chris Sale’s late-season resurgence with the now-eliminated Atlanta Braves, Zack Wheeler would have been the clear frontrunner for the National League Cy Young.

Wheeler had a dominant season, finishing with 224 strikeouts — tied for third-most in the majors — across 200 innings. His 16-7 record and 2.57 ERA was dominant in the Phillies’ rotation, and while the Mets managed to scrape across two runs against him in a 2-1 win on September 22, Wheeler’s been a consistent ace.

Cristopher Sanchez

Cristopher Sanchez has quietly been one of the Phillies’ most reliable arms since August, posting a 3.25 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP. He will get the start Game 2 at Citizens Bank Park on Sunday. Sanchez has been lights out at The Bank.

He’s posted a sparkling 2.21 ERA at home this season compared to a 5.02 ERA on the road. Given that, it makes a ton of sense to use Sanchez in Game 2 at home, where he’s clearly more comfortable, instead of saving him for a potential Game 3 on the road at Citi Field.

Aaron Nola

Aaron Nola, despite some late-season struggles, will rise the occasion of postseason baseball. Nola finished the year 14-8 with a 3.57 ERA, but his best moment against the Mets came in a complete-game shutout back on May 14.

Though September was a bit rough, Nola has shown the ability to dial it up when it matters most. He’s has proven to be a big-game pitcher, surrendering just six earned runs across four postseason starts last year.

Ranger Suarez

Ranger Suarez, who earned his first All-Star nod this season thanks to a stellar first half, cooled off a bit down the stretch. However, with a 12-8 record, 3.46 ERA, and 1.20 WHIP, he’s still a solid presence in the back end of the rotation, giving the Phillies all the depth they’d need in a five-game NLDS series.

Starting Rotation:

NLDS Game 1: No surprises here—Zack Wheeler will be on the mound.

Wheeler takes the mound for Game 1, was particularly sharp down the stretch, posting a 2.23 ERA with 41 strikeouts over his final five starts. His postseason résumé speaks for itself, and he’s the type of pitcher that can shut down even the hottest offenses.

Zack Wheeler vs Mets: 0-1, 2.57 ERA, 7.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 H, HR, BB, 8 K

NLDS Game 2: Cristopher Sanchez

While Aaron Nola has the experience, Cristopher Sánchez has been phenomenal at home, sporting a 2.21 ERA at Citizens Bank Park.

Cristopher Sanchez vs Mets: 1-0, 3.06 ERA, 17.2 IP, 6 ER, 16 H, 2 HR, 9 BB, 19 K

NLDS Game 3: Aaron Nola

Aaron Nola vs Mets: 1-1, 4.05 ERA, 13.1 IP, 6 ER, 10 H, 2 HR, 2 BB, 15 K

NLDS Game 4 (if necessary): Ranger Suarez

Ranger Suárez will be the fourth starter, should the series extend.

Ranger Suarez vs Mets: 2-0, 2.30 ERA, 15.2 IP, 4 ER, 17 H, 2 HR, 6 BB, 13 K

The Phillies are well-positioned to neutralize the Mets’ offense, but they’ll have to stay sharp, as Francisco Lindor and Pete Alonso have been clutch. On paper, though, Philadelphia’s pitching advantage could be the difference-maker in this NLDS clash.

The Phillies won the season series, 7-6, outscoring the Mets 69-59.

Also worth noting: Taijuan Walker had a 0-1 record with an ERA of 7.04 and 9 strikeouts in 4 appearances against the Mets this season. He was on the mound for three of the six losses the Phillies had against the Mets and needless to say, Walker will not be pitching in the NLDS.

Mets vs. Phillies NLDS Schedule

• Game 1: Saturday October 5, 4:08 p.m. ET (Senga vs. Wheeler)
• Game 2: Sunday October 6, 4:08 p.m. ET (Severino vs. Sanchez)
• Game 3: Tuesday October 8, TBD (Nola vs. Manaea) 
• Game 4: Wednesday October 9, TBD (Suarez vs. Quintana) (if necessary)
• Game 5: Friday October 11, TBD (Senga vs. Wheeler) (if necessary)

On the hitting side, Philly brings a top-tier lineup into this series. They rank in the top five in wOBA and are top 10 in wRC+, showing how potent they’ve been all season. Even if you narrow it down to the second half, from July 9 onward—when the Phillies hit their stride and stayed 28 games over .500—they remain fifth in wOBA and ninth in wRC+. This is a dangerous offense, built to do damage in October.

Phillies Postseason Roster

• Catchers: J.T. Realmuto, Garrett Stubbs
• Infielders: Bryce Harper (1B), Bryson Stott (2B), Alec Bohm (3B), Trea Turner (SS), Kody Clemens (Utility), Edmundo Sosa (Utility)
• Outfielders: Nick Castellanos, Austin Hays, Brandon Marsh, Johan Rojas, Cal Stevenson/Weston Wilson
• Designated Hitter: Kyle Schwarber
• Starting Rotation: Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, Cristopher Sánchez, Ranger Suárez
• Bullpen: Carlos Estévez, Jeff Hoffman, Matt Strahm, Orion Kerkering, José Alvarado, José Ruiz, Tanner Banks, Max Lazar

Phillies Starting Lineup:

1. Kyle Schwarber, DH
2. Trea Turner, SS
3. Bryce Harper, 1B
4. Nick Castellanos, RF
5. Alec Bohm, 3B
6. Bryson Stott, 2B
7. J.T. Realmuto, C
8. Brandon Marsh, LF (could switch with Austin Hays based on matchups)
9. Johan Rojas, CF (or Cal Stevenson/Weston Wilson depending on the pitcher)

1. Kody Clemens: .689 vs. RHP, .783 vs. LHP (21 plate appearances vs. lefties)
2. Austin Hays: .569 vs. RHP, .946 vs. LHP (90 PA)
3. Brandon Marsh: .792 vs. RHP, .552 vs. LHP (90 PA)
4. Johan Rojas: .633 vs. RHP, .526 vs. LHP (106 PA)
5. Weston Wilson: .640 vs. RHP, 1.025 vs. LHP (51 PA)
6. Cal Stevenson: .769 vs. RHP, .000 OPS vs. LHP (2 PA)

Overall, the Phillies have the upper hand here. Their starting rotation should give them an advantage in every game of this series, and their lineup is built to put pressure on opposing pitchers.

The Mets’ pitching staff is capable of keeping them in games, but without enough offensive firepower to match Philly, it’s tough to see them winning this series or really, remaining competitive at all.

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