Not Great: The “City Destroyer” Asteroid probability rate of hitting Earth keeps getting worse—now has a 3.1% chance of impact in 2032

If you’re anything like me, you probably don’t even bother with articles that say there’s an asteroid floating around in space that could potentially hit Earth and end humanity.

Like clockwork, the “threat” turns out to be just another cosmic scare story that would fizzle out once scientists did their usual “nothing to see here” routine. After all, every time an asteroid enters the conversation, it’s typically followed by, “Oh, don’t worry, it’s gonna miss us by a casual 4.7 million miles.”

But the “City Destroyer” asteroid that’s expected to make a pass near earth in 2032 might be something that we should keep an eye on over the eight years because, well, the numbers of it actually making impact keep getting worse.

On February 6th, the odds of impact were slim but not nonexistent. A year prior, we were sitting at 1.35% and reports indicated the odds had risen to 2.27% – a number that I casually laughed off just like every other hunk of rock floating around the universe.

The calculated probability that asteroid 2024 YR4 (around the size of a football field) will hit the earth in 2032 has risen to 2.278%. A week ago it was 1.35% pic.twitter.com/HxPprsXsIb

— Andy Bloch (@Andy_Bloch) February 6, 2025

Fast forward a few weeks, and we’re now at 3.1%. Don’t like that at all.

BREAKING: NASA says there's now a 3.1% chance that asteroid 2024 YR4 will hit Earth in 2032.

This is the highest risk assessment an asteroid has ever received.

— unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) February 18, 2025

Look I get it, 3.1% chance of impact doesn’t sound like much, but let’s put it in perspective:

This is now the highest-risk asteroid ever observed in modern forecasting. A 3.1% chance is way higher than the probability of most March Madness 16-seeds pulling off an upset and if the trajectory keeps shifting in the wrong direction, we’re gonna have a real-life Deep Impact scenario on our hands.

I’m not a math guy but folks, we are trending in the wrong direction.

What Happens If This City Destroying Asteroid Actually Hits?

First off, it’s not an extinction-level event—so no need to start looting grocery stores or going full Mad Max just yet. But it is what scientists call a “city destroyer.” This bad boy is estimated to be anywhere from 131 to 295 feet in diameter, which means if it hits land, one unlucky city is gonna have a very, very bad day.

And if it hits the ocean?

That might actually be worse. Picture a massive tsunami wiping out entire coastlines—because yeah, that’s definitely on the table.

It would be an epic disaster if it hit the Atlantic ocean too. Depending on the Angle of entry the resulting Tsunami would be the biggest ever observed by humans. pic.twitter.com/drEjRZ5CYI

— Desert Daddy (@RScottDalton) February 18, 2025

The scary part is obviously the fact that this asteroid wasn’t even on our radar a few months ago and now, it has a higher chance of impact than the Philadelphia 76ers have of winning the NBA title this season. And let’s be honest, if that doesn’t make you nervous, nothing will.

So… Should We Panic?

I’m going to say no…for now. The Philadelphia Eagles just won a Super Bowl and will probably have a few more rings before 2032. Bryce Harper and Trea Turner will still be playing baseball for the Philadelphia Phillies.

And maybe, just maybe, the 76ers will be exiting another stretch of The Process and getting ready to play in 76 Place alongside the Matvei Michkov-led two-time Stanley Cup champion Flyers.

You think I care about an asteroid destroying earth when I have so many rings that I have to start putting them on my toes? Don’t think so. Plus, I bet Space Force is licking their chops right now to step in and save humanity from destruction which at this rate, might actually need to happen.

Donny Trump and Elon Musk will go full Armageddon if needed and blow this space rock into a million pieces, right?

Regardless, the way this probability keeps inching up does not scream “false alarm.”

Usually, these threats start with a sliver of a chance and quickly shrink to zero.

This one? It keeps climbing.

At this rate, we might wanna get Bruce Willis and Ben Affleck on standby.

Maybe dust off NASA’s DART program and see if we can slap this thing out of Earth’s way before we have a real problem. Until then, let’s just keep watching those odds. If this number keeps rising, expect society to absolutely lose its mind.

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