Phillies Postseason Picture: Magic Numbers, Remaining Matchups, and the Road Ahead

The Phillies are sitting pretty right now. They are 86-60 on the season and 7-3 over their last 10 games. They’ve beaten the Mets into pulp over their last three and all things considered, should do the same tonight with Jesus Luzardo on the mound in the series finale.

As things stand today, they basically have the National League East locked up and they are well within reach of the best record in all of baseball. We are in the final stretch of the 2025 MLB regular season and finally, it’s time to take a closer look on how things look heading into Red October.

Phillies Magic Number Watch

To clinch a playoff berth: The Phillies’ magic number is five. Five Phillies wins, or five Reds/Giants losses, or some combo of the two, and it’s official. Pop the champagne.

To clinch the NL East: Philly’s magic number is seven. Technically, they could wrap it up as early as Sunday against the Royals if everything falls perfectly, but the more realistic path is next week when they head west to face the Dodgers and Diamondbacks.

The No. 1 Seed Chase

The Brewers currently hold the top spot, but the Phillies are just 2.5 games back. They say that catching them won’t be easy and it’s probably true, since Milwaukee owns the tiebreaker after winning four of six this season, so the Phillies need to finish three games better than them the rest of the way.

Milwaukee’s schedule isn’t brutal, but it’s not a cakewalk either. They have the Cardinals, Angels, Padres, Reds, while the Phillies’ remaining slate looks like this:

• Mets (1)
• Royals (3)
• at Dodgers (3)
• at Diamondbacks (3)
• Marlins (3)
• Twins (3)

If the Brewers go 9-6, the Phillies need to go 12-4. Tough, but doable.

The No. 1 seed means home-field advantage throughout the playoffs, plus a matchup against the winner of Cubs vs. Padres in the Wild Card. That’s a much better draw than seeing the Dodgers or Mets to kick off Red October.

The Mets Factor

Philly’s biggest nightmare isn’t the Braves anymore. It’s the cursed (and likely cheated) grounds of Citi Field. They just can’t seem to play competent baseball in Queens. The Mets are probably cheating and stealing signs there and no one has caught them in the act quite yet, so while a potential NLDS showdown with New York looks good in the media, it’s probably not what you want if you’re Topper and The Fightins.

The New York Mets are flailing. They’ve lost five straight and now only sit two games ahead of the Reds and Giants for the final Wild Card spot. Their upcoming schedule isn’t friendly either, with series against the Rangers, Padres, Cubs, and even the Marlins, who would like nothing more than to play spoiler.

Obviously, if the Mets collapse, the Phillies could dodge Citi Field entirely this October which would be the best possible outcome, In my humble opinion.

They are in. That much feels inevitable.

The question now is where they’ll land and who they’ll face.

• Best case: Phillies catch Milwaukee, secure the No. 1 seed, and line up against Cubs/Padres.
• Likely case: Phillies lock down the No. 2 seed, take the NL East, and face the winner of Dodgers/Mets.
• Nightmare case: Phillies have to go through Queens.

Either way, this team has the firepower to handle business. With 16 games left, every night matters, whether it’s the Phillies adding to the win column or the Brewers/Mets taking an L. Brace yourselves, Red October is coming.

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