The Phillies’ push for home field advantage in October is coming down to the wire

Drew Smith
September 19, 2025
Phillies
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Even after getting blanked 5-0 by the Dodgers on Wednesday night, the Phillies still walked out of L.A. with what matters most, with another series win.

That marked the Phillies’ 33rd series victory of the season, the most in baseball, and it puts them in position to do something even the 102-win 2011 squad could not.

At 91-62, the Phillies now sit 5.5 games ahead of the Dodgers for the No. 2 seed and an all-but-guaranteed first-round bye.

The real chase is for the Brewers, who currently hold the best record in the NL and in baseball, 3 games up on Philadelphia. Home field advantage throughout the postseason is still in play, and Rob Thomson has already made it clear that he wants it.

Phillies won’t take foot off the gas after clinching NL East in LA but Topper is already plotting for October

The numbers don’t lie.

The Dodgers are a juggernaut at Dodger Stadium (49-28) but look like a different team on the road (36-39). The Brewers are dangerous no matter where they play, with strong records home and away but there’s no shot that I would ever be scared of a team from the NL Central, especially in October.

The Phillies, meanwhile, have proven they can win anywhere, but Citizens Bank Park in October is a different beast. Red October is worth at least a couple of runs a night.

The Schedules

The good news for the Phillies is that the path ahead is manageable.

3 @ Diamondbacks (fighting for their playoff lives)
3 vs. Marlins (dead in the water)
3 vs. Twins (even deader in the water)

The Brewers have a softer landing this weekend but finish with six brutal games against the Padres and Reds, both in the playoff hunt.

The Dodgers have the hardest road with a rivalry series against the Giants, then trips to face the desperate D-backs and Mariners.

Any way you look at it, that’s an advantage for the Phillies.

Fangraphs gives the Phillies a 99.1% shot at a first-round bye, which is priority No. 1.

This team wants that No. 1 seed. Not only does it mean more games at CBP, it keeps them locked in instead of coasting into October.

Thomson is already setting his rotation: Cristopher Sánchez lined up for Game 1, Ranger Suárez likely for Game 2, and Jesús Luzardo for Game 3. If they make it to the NLCS, Aaron Nola slides in as the fourth starter.

Walker Buehler is set to piggyback Taijuan Walker on Friday in Arizona as an audition for a bullpen role. That’s the kind of luxury you get when you’ve already locked up a playoff spot, you can tinker without risking the bye.

This Phillies keep winning series, managing their rotation, and keeping their foot on the gas with a real shot at homefield advantage. It’s been 13 years since the Phillies were the best regular-season team in baseball. Now they’ve got nine games left to prove they’re built to finish the job in October.