The Jamie Drysdale Breakout You’re Missing

The eye test is dangerous. At times, what we see can correctly identify what statistics are failing to capture. That’s not always how it goes, though. Oftentimes, especially in a sport as frenetic as hockey, the opposite is true.

The eye-test is ruled entirely by perception, which exists in a Venn diagram with reality that’s smaller than we’d like to believe. Our eyes reveal things to us, informed by biases and preconceptions that often shape our perspective, which can be utterly false.

Our evaluations of players will turn into fanfiction entirely divorced from the actual play on the ice or the field.

There is no greater example of this right now than Jamie Drysdale. The perception of Drysdale is entirely different, and far gloomier, than the reality. Before I tell you how it’s wrong, how your eyes are tricking you, indulge me while I explain what many of you are seeing.

Drysdale has 3 assists in 8 games. His power-play unit has been entirely ineffectual, and he’s made almost zero notable offensive plays this season. He’s supposed to be an offensive defenseman, so what the hell? If he can’t even do this right, then obviously, this kid has to be ass.

Simple process of elimination, right?

Yes, if you accept the premise that Drysdale either must be or is supposed to be an offensive defenseman, then the logic that follows is unassailable. But it’s a faulty premise. There’s no law against Drysdale being good in other ways.

Right now, Jamie Drysdale is… to put it conservatively… one of the best 5v5 defenders in the NHL. A dominant force at even strength who acts an EMP against all opposing offense.

Among defensemen with 140 minutes played at 5v5, Drysdale ranks 3rd in expected goal share. That overall territorial dominance is driven primary by his defense, where he’s surrendered the second fewest expected goals per hour.

The league can barely get a scoring chance when this kid is on the ice.

Now, 140 minutes is a high bar to clear at this stage of the season. That’s on purpose. Drysdale isn’t succeeding in third pair minutes. There’s no quality of competition caveat here.

He’s succeeding in top-pair minutes at even strength. He’s been the Flyers’ second-most-used defenseman at 5v5, and he’s close to number 1 in usage.

He’s number 1 in results, and it isn’t close. Sanheim, his competition, ranks 16th among these blueliners with a 50% expected goal share flat. Drysdale has essentially 60% (59.77!)

These 34 defensemen have been relied upon by their teams. They’ve been rocks for their coaches. Names like Brock Faber, Drew Doughty, Noah Dobson, Gustav Forsling, Moritz Seider, and Adam Fox are his competition.

And if the contest is “what percentage of scoring chances do their team enjoy on the ice?” He’s beating that competition.

He ranks 8th in shot attempt share amongst these blueliners, and that’s even more impressive if you understand the defensive system the Flyers are currently employing. The primary difference between what Tocchet and Tortorella are doing in the DZ is that the attempts to pressure the opposition are fewer and further between.

Instead of chasing puck handlers in nondangerous areas, they’re protecting the most valuable ice and intentionally surrendering low danger shot attempts.

Drysdale is giving these teams outside shots as part of his team’s system, and he’s still top 10, controlling nearly 55% of all attempts.

Now, for 8 games, this would be impressive, but it’d also require me to shower you with caveats and provisos about how early in the season it is. But it isn’t 8 games we’re dealing with.

Actually, this breakout started after he came back from that injury last November. It was in its earlier stages then. A little easier to miss. But if I take the data from December 1st of last year to today?

Drysdale ranks 14th with a 55% expected goal share, producing results nearly identical to Gustav Forsling and superior to players like Devon Toews and Jake Sanderson.

This has been a long time coming. The trajectory is clear. In this instance, development has been almost perfectly linear. He’s hit another level this season, and he may have yet another level to hit.

But why is it being missed?

The simple answer: Goaltending.

In the full sample, Drysdale has allowed 2.28 expected goals against per hour of play. That has translated to 3.4 goals against per hour of play at 5v5. Insidious. Ridiculous. An .874 on-ice save percentage could make anyone look bad, even Jaccob Slavin or Miro Heiskanen.

It was better this year, and with a more predictable environment for goaltenders, I expect it to stay better. But he’s also had some rotten luck this season, particularly in his most recent game.

This obscenely unfortunate game is the only reason he isn’t outscoring opponents at 5v5 this season.

See, the goaltending has been mildly unlucky. His 1.76 expected goals against per hour have translated into 2.1 actual goals against an hour.

But the real source of his misfortune is the lack of on-ice goals. The pluses to help his cause.

His 2.7 expected goals per hour have been converted at a rate of 1.6 goals per hour. That’s not on him. I can say that for certain because, in the full sample, his on-ice goals actually outpace his expected goals.

Regression is coming, and once it does, Drysdale will be outscoring his opponents handily while playing heavy minutes.

That’s what a stud defenseman does. That’s what a number 1 really does. He’s doing it right now. Who cares if I have to find someone else to run a power-play? Who really cares?

But how? What the hell finally clicked?

Let’s start with what’s always been there. The ability to skate and to use that skating to escape opposing forechecks. He’s essentially untouchable once he gets a window to use his legs to beat pressure.

Rossi is a good skater, and Drysdale is in one hell of an awkward spot. It doesn’t matter. Jamie puts him in a blender and starts a rush the other way that becomes a game-winner.

This isn’t something new. He could do this when he was 18 years old. The problem was always the decision-making when he had the puck. Using his skating when he has the lane to do so and knowing when to quit the carry. Drysdale was, for a long time, seemingly unaware that he could settle for a good and quick breakout pass because the puck moves faster than everyone. Even him.

His inability to consistently move the puck up-ice overtaxed his defensive play, but his defensive play in a vacuum has always been serviceable. It is becoming so much more than serviceable.

Over the course of a 90-second shift, Drysdale essentially employs a magical stick to rob both Horvat and Schaefer of quality drives to the net. He and his precise stick checks were the only reason the Flyers ever saw the shootout.

The timing on his stick checks, paired with the ability to match any forward’s footwork, is turning him into a disruptive force akin to Miro Heiskanen.

Opposing puck carriers might as well surrender if creating offense relies on beating Drysdale 1 on 1.

Hell, at this point, they’ve been unable to beat Drysdale many-on-one. The same stick checks that he’s used to knock pucks free from their carriers have been equally useful in clogging passing lanes. Odd-man rushes die in his presence.

But it isn’t Drysdale’s defense that has primarily allowed him to become the player he has. It’s his ability to move the puck ice without ever tapping into his skating ability. What used to be a crippling weakness has become one of his greatest strengths: breakout passes.

His play to earn an assist today was a picture-perfect example of what he wasn’t doing. It’s a regroup scenario. The Flyers have control of the puck in the neutral zone after the Islanders clear the puck from the DZ.

Great players find a way to go for their opponent’s throat here, and that’s exactly what Drysdale does.

Rather than turning and assessing his options, he anticipates the outlet and makes an immediate backhand pass to Dvorak.

It’s not the prettiest entry because Dvorak isn’t exactly an elite puck handler, but it gets the job done because Drysdale had already created the advantage.

Dvorak, through hell or high water, gets the puck to Zegras… who makes no mistake.

Drysdale has always had the legs. What he’s lacked until now has been the decisiveness with the puck to deliver consistent advantages for his team. He has it now. And the Flyers are just starting to enjoy the results.

Emphasis on just starting.

Finding a pass right up the middle to create a controlled entry is difficult work. Unfortunately, when it’s Abols on the ice, it’s really just a glorified dump-in. But as players like Zegras find themselves receiving more of these, the Flyers will continue to find more and more offense from these passes.

It was always there. Drysdale was concerned about a potential number 1 defenseman in his draft year, not just because of his skating, but because of his mind. He was thought of as an elite thinker. Not necessarily the most creative player, but someone who processes the game even faster than he skates. A methodical and surgical thinker with the skating ability to escape any jam.

We’re starting to see that, now.

Where is there left to go?

I’m not going to mince words. As brilliant a puck mover as Drysdale has become, his OZ process still needs work. He’s yet to consistently weaponize his skating in the offensive zone. The activation game is too sporadic, the point shots are getting better but not good enough, and the decision-making from the top on both the power-play and 5v5… not good.

Not good, but continuously getting better even now. The flashes are there. Simply leveraging these skills more will see his point totals rise with his on-ice results.

See, Drysdale might be one of the best 5 defensemen in the NHL right now at getting the puck into the offensive zone. Once he gets there? Well, that’s a work in progress.

But you have to understand. Drysdale is an incredibly valuable top-4 defenseman right now, without this skillset at all.

If he can improve the reads he’s making in the offensive zone, as he did the neutral and defensive zones? If he can add an activation game and use his mobility to beat defenders and create from the blueline?

Then you won’t need me to write this piece anymore. You’ll know plenty about Drysdale and his game when he accepts his James Norris Memorial Trophy. 

Mandatory Credit: NHL.com

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