The Flyers’ Looming Collapse

On the surface, there’s no shame in splitting a road back-to-back. There’s less shame in losing the latter half, and it isn’t even a total catastrophe that they allowed the Stars to have a fifty-minute power-play. At least, that’s how it appeared in real time.

And yet I titled this piece the way I titled it. Clickbait wasn’t the goal, either. The Flyers’ problems have been building for some time now. For most of the season, in fact. The cracks have become more and more pronounced over time, and as the damage builds, it becomes very possible that there’ll be a total structural collapse.

In the Flyers’ last 12 games, the team has “enjoyed” a 5v5 expected goal share of 46.89%. This includes a drubbing of the Montreal Canadiens that basically included Montreal forgetting how to play the sport of hockey but otherwise lavishing in the world’s greatest shooting percentage bender to keep the game competitive.

Without that Montreal game, the Flyers would probably be the very worst possession team in the league. Under the likes of the San Jose Sharks, Chicago Blackhawks, and Seattle Kraken.

Now, hypotheticals are in poor taste, so let’s suffice to say they’re actually the sixth worst territorial team in this dataset.

That’s a far cry from how they began the season, and worse yet… they’re only getting worse. In their last 6 games, their expected goal share is all the way down to 44%. Which is frankly just sad.

The core of this territorial incompetence comes from their downright anemic… nay, pathetic… offense. They’re consistently among the league’s very worst teams in the art of generating scoring chances. The rush attack they had last year has vanished. Its picture is on a milk carton, and still, nobody can find it. That has been replaced by nothing.

As the team continues to go longer and longer as the world’s worst offense, it’s only natural for players to start taking liberties on the defensive side of the game. Overcompensating in an effort to score some goals, because a team needs those to win the game.

The Flyers’ once vaunted defense in the first breath of the season has died on the vine. In their previous six games, they’ve allowed the seventh most expected goals in the league at 5 on 5. Their goaltending once complimented their defense, but that’s drying up too.

They’ve allowed a tick more goals than expected in that stretch, nearly 3 per hour of 5v5 play.

15 games into the season, and there seems to be no effort to find answers because nobody’s even asking the right questions.

Rick Tocchet, hired to fix the defense rather than kill the chance generation, has reminded us to have some perspective and said… “At least we aren’t last!”

"Everybody expected us to be in last place, so I've got to give these guys a lot of credit. I'm proud of them."

"It was just a hockey play, it happens. It's going to happen again, I'm pretty sure, whether it's me or someone else. Just emotions." https://t.co/5o0YXRHd0O

— Jordan Hall (@JHallNBCS) November 13, 2025

But don’t speak too soon, Rick. That might still come.

The baying wolves have been held back by, well, bullshit luck. Shootout wins in what should’ve been humiliating losses. Dan Vladar, a perfectly capable goaltender, somehow playing like a Vezina winner while the team gets embarrassed. Perfectly timed shooting benders to overcome Sam Ersson being as bad as he’s ever been.

It’s not good when the coach’s only resort is, “We need players to make plays under pressure.”

Rick, if it were that easy, everyone would do it. You employ two players who can make plays under pressure, just two.

Posted for writing purposes.

(The point isn't exactly what you think it is!) pic.twitter.com/Dy8Gjm1JL1

— Derek Dunn (@SuitableAlias) November 16, 2025

With Matvei Michkov on the ice, the Flyers are an exceptional 5v5 team.

They enjoy a 56% expected goal share in his minutes while the team is collapsing to a hysterically bad 43% expected goal share without him.

He can make plays under pressure.

With Trevor Zegras on the ice, the Flyers are a good 5v5 team. They enjoy a nearly 52% expected goal share with him and suffer a 44% without him.

He can make plays under pressure.

That’s 2 players that can produce good results in this slog of a game style.

Now, Trevor Zegras has been given enough minutes to fight against the crashing waves of ineptitude. To build a dam against the tsunami. But he’s building alone, because his counterpart… the one person who can make these plays under pressure even easier than he does… is 9th in 5v5 usage.

To litigate that whole debacle is beyond the scope of this piece but suffice it to say… the Flyers’ one hope is the one thing they’re too incalcitrant to actually do.

And because of their obstinance, their fate has been effectively sealed. The collapse is coming. It’s only a question of who gets buried in the rubble.

The Flyers should become very familiar with the vicissitudes of Gavin McKenna’s performance at Penn State. Because that’s where this is headed.

And like Owen Tippett with a head of speed, nobody’s going to stop this runaway train to Tankathon Watch.

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