Phillies Bullpen: Full Breakdown Heading Into 2026 Spring Training
The Phillies bullpen has spent the last decade feeling like a weekly science experiment. It has always lacked identity and commitment. Up until last year, there was no real closer that could be relied on either.
Hell, the last Phillies closer to post multiple 30 save seasons was Jonathan Papelbon in 2012 and 2014. The last 30 save season at all came from Jeanmar Gómez in 2016 and since then, it has been a rotating cast of arms, matchups, and legitimately praying that things don’t implode late in the game.
The Phillies tried to fix that two seasons ago by trading for Carlos Estévez at the deadline. He came in with 20 saves and a 2.38 ERA, and for a minute it felt like the back end finally had structure.
Estévez pitched fine in the regular season, then his year ended in the worst way possible with the series clinching grand slam to Francisco Lindor in the NLDS. Estévez left for Kansas City, and the bullpen immediately went back to feeling fluid again.
Until now.
Dave Dombrowski actually did the real thing last deadline. The Phillies shipped two top five prospects, catcher Eduardo Tait and pitcher Mick Abel, to Minnesota for Jhoan Duran, a lockdown reliever with years of control.
Duran brought triple digit heat, the closer entrance immediately played at Citizens Bank Park, and the production backed it up. He put up a 2.18 ERA in 23 appearances with 16 saves, which matched his save total in 49 games with the Twins.
Then the Phillies doubled down in the winter by signing Brad Keller to a two year, $22 million deal.
That is a real bullpen investment. It was also the first time since the Papelbon offseason that the Phillies handed out a multi year reliever contract with double digit annual value. It was a signal that they want defined roles and actual leverage reliability instead of mixing and matching on the fly.
The numbers from the last two seasons are not impressive.
Phillies relievers have a 4.06 ERA over that span, which ranked 19th in baseball. But what makes this group more interesting is not last year’s team stats. It is how the pieces fit together now.
This bullpen is built on contrast, with different looks and shapes that fill specific lanes. That matters because in October, the teams that survive are the teams that can win matchups without needing the same script every night.
Start with the lefties. Losing Matt Strahm hurts, but the Phillies are leaning into more matchup usage now, and the two left handers they have are completely different problems.
José Alvarado is still the high octane, high chaos option.
His sinker averaged 99.1 mph and was in the 99th percentile for fastball velocity. Even then, his cutter is the pitch that makes him work.
Opponents have hit .181 or lower against it in every full season since 2020. The whole thing is built on tunneling. Two different fastballs coming out of the same window and arriving with different movement.
When he is right, it is miserable for hitters.
Tanner Banks is the opposite. Softer throwing, more mix, more precision. He made his biggest leap last season by limiting walks and leaning into his strengths.
His slider and sweeper combination continues to improve, and he quietly became a left on left monster. Among left handers who faced at least 110 left handed hitters, Banks allowed the fewest earned runs in baseball and posted a 1.47 ERA.
There might be another gear too. His changeup had 36.6 inches of vertical drop, which gives it the shape to become a real swing and miss pitch if he uses it more in 2026.
Keller is the underrated glue of this whole plan. His 2025 relief breakout was not just a hot streak. It was backed by Statcast traits that stick. He had a 2.07 ERA in 68 appearances, and a huge part of it was a nearly four mph jump in average four seam velocity to 97.2.
The fastball played, and it made everything else better. Opponents slugged .295 against it, and the rest of his arsenal forced weak contact. His hard hit rate was 30.6 percent, which was in the 99th percentile, and his groundball rate was top five percent in the league.
The real selling point is how he handled right handed hitters. Strahm’s calling card in Philly was neutralizing righties. Keller did it even better. Against righties, he held opponents to a .466 OPS. And the usage was smart. He threw the four seam mostly to lefties.
Against righties, he leaned on sinker and sweeper, and that combo gave up only two extra base hits all season. If the Phillies want a bullpen that can survive in October matchups without being trapped in one role, Keller is central to that vision.
Orion Kerkering still matters too, even if people only remember how his season ended. He is 24, he has a 2.79 ERA across three big league seasons, and his look is different than anyone else in the bullpen. His arm slot is the separator.
He sits at a 31 degree arm angle, and paired with arm side run on his sinker and four seam, it creates shapes hitters do not see from the other right handers. He leaned less on his sweeper last year and the groundball rate dipped, but the contact quality stayed steady. If he puts the NLDS behind him, he is still a key right on right option alongside Keller.
Duran ties it all together because he finally gives the bullpen a real ending. The fastball is stupid, 100.6 mph on average, literal 100th percentile velocity, but it is not even his most used pitch. He leaned more on the splitter last season, and that pitch led all of baseball in run value.
The curveball is where the empty swings come from. Among pitchers who threw at least 200 curveballs, Duran’s 41.8 percent whiff rate ranked seventh among relievers. Even with his curveball whiff rate down to a career low last season, he still dominated. That is the point. He does not need perfect. He is elite anyway.
A 30 save season is in reach. More importantly, his presence gives the bullpen a defined end point, and everything else stops feeling like monthly experimentation.
Then you get to the under the radar arms that make spring training real. Jonathan Bowlan came in through the Strahm deal and his four seam fastball is legitimately weird to hitters. Last season, among 357 pitchers who threw at least 200 four seamers, Bowlan generated the highest swing and miss rate on the pitch at 43.5 percent.
That gap was not close. His sinker also has real potential. Among pitchers who threw at least 100 sinkers, he ranked third in opponents’ hard hit rate at 10.7 percent. The Phillies just added another right hander with a pitch that hitters cannot square up.
Kyle Backhus is the other intriguing one. Big lefty, low velocity, sidearm look, and the key is extension. He releases the ball 7.2 feet from the rubber, which is 96th percentile. That makes his 91 mph sinker play faster than it looks. The ERA was ugly last season, but the profile fits as a matchup lefty who can disrupt timing and limit barrels.
That’s the big difference heading into 2026.
2026 Phillies Bullpen Heading Into Spring Training:
- Brad Keller
- Jose Alvarado
- Orion Kerkering
- Tanner Banks
- Jonathan Bowman
- Zach Pop
- Johan Duran
The Phillies bullpen finally has an identity.
It isn’t tied to one arm. It is a mix built on contrast. Power next to finesse. Vertical next to horizontal. Over the top next to sidearm. A closer who can actually lock the ninth inning. Setup options that can win different matchups instead of being trapped in one.
For the first time in a while, this bullpen looks like something you build on purpose, not something you patch together and hope survives October.
Join The Chase
Read More
The Phillies have now lost 10-straight games for the first time since 1999
The Phillies are 8-18 and this is the worst start…
Desperate Times: The Phillies subreddit is now Wawa-themed until further notice
The Phillies are terrible, and this awful season has broken…
The Phillies have now lost nine straight after being swept at Wrigley for the first time since 1973
The losing streak is at nine. The Phillies are 8-17…
Comments (0)