Team Italy and Aaron Nola carry the weight of the United States of America on his shoulders tonight against Mexico

Only the World Baseball Classic can produce a scenario this wild and for a pitcher that’s either dominant or a complete disaster, there’s no one better than Aaron Nola to hold the weight of the United States of America on his shoulders.

FOR GLORY: AARON NOLA

Aaron Nola takes the mound Wednesday night for Italy against Mexico, and depending on how many runs he allows, he could be the reason Team USA either advances to the knockout round or gets eliminated from the tournament in pool play. A Phillies pitcher, pitching for Italy, holding the fate of the American team in his hands. Incredible.

Turncoat: Aaron Nola agrees to pitch for Team Italy in the World Baseball Classic

Here is how it happened. Team USA went 3-1 in pool play after a stunning 8-6 loss to Italy on Tuesday. Italy is 3-0. Mexico is 2-1. If Italy wins Wednesday, Italy wins Pool B and the U.S. advances as runner-up. Clean and simple.

If Mexico wins, however, all three teams finish 3-1 and the tiebreaker becomes a runs allowed ratio in games between the tied teams. That is where it gets complicated and where Nola’s performance becomes everything.

USA allowed 11 runs total against Mexico and Italy across 18 innings, putting their ratio at 0.204. If Italy loses to Mexico but holds them to four runs or fewer, Italy’s runs allowed ratio would be 0.196 or better, placing Italy ahead of the U.S. in the tiebreaker.

Under that scenario, Mexico advances first, Italy advances second, and Team USA goes home. If Mexico scores five or more runs in a win, Italy’s ratio drops below USA’s and the Americans survive.

So to put it plainly. Italy needs to either win or lose badly enough. Four runs allowed in a loss eliminates the United States of America. Five runs allowed keeps them alive. Aaron Nola is pitching in the middle of all of it.

Here are the three scenarios for Wednesday’s game:

Pool B scenarios ahead of Italy vs. Mexico on Wednesday:

1. Italy wins = Italy, USA advance

2. Mexico wins + scores 5+ runs = Mexico, USA advance

3. Mexico wins + scores 4 or fewer runs = Mexico, Italy advance

— Underdog MLB (@UnderdogMLB) March 11, 2026

• Italy beats Mexico: Italy wins Pool B and USA is the runner-up. Mexico eliminated.

• Mexico beats Italy, Scores at least 5 Runs: Mexico and USA advance and Italy would be eliminated.

• Mexico beats Italy, Scores less than 4 Runs: Mexico and Italy advance and Team USA would be eliminated.

The good news for Aaron Nola personally is that he is coming in sharp. His last outing on March 4 saw his fastball touch 93.9 mph, a velocity he did not reach until May last season.

Nola put in offseason long-toss work he had skipped in previous years and showed up to camp looking like the pre-injury version of himself. He is capped at 65 pitches in pool play so he likely goes four innings at most.

In a normal spring he would be preparing for his third Grapefruit League start. Instead he is pitching with October stakes in March for a country he represents while the United States of America sweats out every run.

The WBC continues to deliver. First pitch Wednesday night. Aaron Nola. FOR GLORY.

Join The Chase