The Sixers are hanging on for dear life to a play-in spot with 16 games left in the regular season

What is still genuinely hard to process is how we got here. It took a while, but months into this season I had myself convinced it was going to be different and that this was finally the year the Sixers stayed healthy.

We were finally going to witness Embiid, Maxey, and George all be on the floor together when it mattered and Philadelphia would look like what it was always supposed to look like on paper.

Instead we are in mid-March in a worse position than most of the nightmare scenarios from previous seasons. Not missing one guy. Missing everyone. Running a stretch run with Cameron Payne starting and hoping the math somehow works out in the end.

It is almost impressive how this franchise keeps finding new ways to do this to you.

VJ Edgecombe was bad, shorthanded Sixers lose to the Pistons 131-109

16 games to go. Here is where things stand for the Sixers

The Sixers are the ninth seed in the East at 35-31, tied with Atlanta but on the wrong side of the tiebreaker. That distinction matters more than people realize.

The seven and eight seeds in the play-in need one win to advance. The nine and ten seeds need to win twice. Philadelphia is currently in the harder bracket and has done nothing to earn the right to feel comfortable about it.

Here is the relevant Eastern Conference picture right now:

• 6th: Miami Heat, 38-29 (+3.5 ahead of PHI)
• 7th: Toronto Raptors, 36-29 (+1.5)
• 8th: Atlanta Hawks, 35-31 (tied)
• 9th: Philadelphia 76ers, 35-31
• 10th: Charlotte Hornets, 34-33 (1.5 behind)

Miami is the last automatic playoff spot and the Sixers are 3.5 games back with 16 to play. It is not impossible but it requires a near-perfect run while the Heat stumble simultaneously, and neither of those things feels particularly likely given the current state of this roster.

The negative point differential is worth noting too. Philadelphia is a break-even team by the numbers right now, not a team playing above its talent level.

To feel genuinely safe down the stretch, they probably need to go 11-5. That is a .688 clip from a team that has played .530 ball all season, missing its best players, with the Pistons twice, the Thunder, and the Spurs still on the schedule.

The ceiling here is a seven or eight seed if things break right, which at least puts them in the favorable side of the play-in. The floor is falling out of the play-in entirely if Charlotte heats up and the Sixers cannot string wins together.

Both are very real outcomes right now. Hold off Charlotte. Catch Toronto. Survive. That is the assignment with 16 games left.

Join The Chase