Phillies lose first series under Mattingly as Aaron Nola’s struggles continue
Aaron Nola got tagged for four runs over five innings Wednesday afternoon against the Cincinnati Reds and the Phillies lost the series finale 9-4 at Citizens Bank Park.
The loss marked the first series loss under Don Mattingly, snapping a the streak at six and marking the end of the best stretch of baseball this team has played all season. One of the main reasons why is Aaron Nola, who couldn’t get through the second inning without giving up consecutive hits and spotting the Reds a lead they never gave back.
I’m done making excuses for Aaron Nola.
I’ve been patient. I’ve pointed to the career numbers and the track record and the idea that a pitcher this talented would eventually figure it out. Ten starts into the season and the ERA is 6.04. It was 6.01 last year before he went on the injured list. He’s now had two consecutive seasons with an ERA above 6.00 through his first 10 starts. At what point do we stop calling this a slump and start calling it who Aaron Nola is now?
Aaron Nola’s Recent Numbers Are Indefensible
Ten runs allowed in 8 2/3 innings over his last two starts and only one quality start in his last seven outings for Aaron Nola. That’s really bad. In the six starts outside of that lone quality start in Miami, his ERA is 7.52.
Three of the eight hits he allowed Wednesday were extra-base hits. He gave up back-to-back doubles on curveballs in the second inning and the game was over before the Phillies’ offense could settle in.
This is a man being paid $172 million through 2030.
That contract was signed in November 2023 when Nola was one of the most durable and consistent starters in baseball. He had pitched 1,432 2/3 innings from 2017 through 2024, the most in the majors.
The Phillies paid for that version of Aaron Nola. They’re getting a completely different pitcher and there’s no indication that the old version is coming back.
The Fastball Is Dead
Nola’s fastball averaged under 92 mph for the first time in eight seasons last year. This year it’s sitting at 92. I don’t care how good your changeup is or how sharp your curveball breaks.
If your fastball is sitting 92 in today’s game and your command isn’t razor sharp, Major League hitters are going to sit on it and drive it. That’s exactly what’s happening. Every time Nola leaves a fastball over the plate, it gets crushed.
The margin for error with a 92 mph heater is nonexistent and Nola has been missing his spots consistently for two seasons.
The new ball-strike challenge system has made things even worse. Nola’s entire career was built on painting the edges of the zone and getting borderline calls. The challenge system takes those away.
The pitches that used to be called strikes are getting overturned. The zone that Nola operated in for a decade has shrunk and he hasn’t adjusted. He’s still trying to pitch the same way with less velocity, less command, and a smaller strike zone.
The results are exactly what you’d expect.
Understandably, Don Mattingly Doesn’t Have an Answer
When asked how to help Nola, Mattingly said they’ve talked about pitching backward, using the fastball more, using it less, throwing more changeups, throwing more breaking balls.
He said he can’t point to one thing to flip the whole script. That’s a manager telling you he’s tried everything and nothing has worked. When the coaching staff has thrown every idea at a pitcher and the ERA is still above 6.00, the problem might not be fixable with adjustments. The problem might just be that the pitcher isn’t the same guy anymore.
Realmuto said he believes Nola can return to his previous form. JT has been catching Nola for years. He knows the pitcher better than anyone.
JT Realmuto on Aaron Nola:
I want to believe him and if there’s anyone who would know, it’s JT Realmuto, but the evidence is overwhelming at this point. Two consecutive seasons with an ERA above 6.00 through the first 10 starts with velocity declining year over year and command that comes and goes from inning to inning is sickening to watch.
Aaron Nola looks like a different human being than the guy who finished top five in Cy Young voting three times.
Aaron Nola’s Workload Has Caught Up With Him
Nobody wants to say it so I’ll say it. The arm is cooked. Nola threw 1,432 2/3 innings from 2017 through 2024, the most in the majors. He was a workhorse for this franchise through the tank years, the rebuilding years, and the contending years. He never missed time. He never complained.
He just took the ball every five days and pitched deep into games for eight straight years. That workload has a price and Nola is paying it now at 32 years old with a fastball that’s lost two mph and command that disappears for entire innings at a time.
He made his 295th start as a Phillie on Wednesday and moved into sole possession of fourth place on the franchise’s all-time list. He’s six behind Chris Short for third.
With four years left on his contract, he’ll keep climbing. The question is whether those starts are going to help the Phillies win baseball games or cost them. Right now they’re costing them. Wednesday cost them a series. The next one could cost them more.
The Rotation Can’t Carry a Dead Arm
Sanchez has the longest active scoreless streak in baseball. Wheeler has a sub-2.00 ERA since returning from surgery. Those two are pitching like legitimate Cy Young candidates and carrying this rotation on their backs. Luzardo has been solid in most of his recent outings. Painter is… developing.
The Phillies have four starters who are contributing to wins and one who is actively undermining them every fifth day.
A rotation with Sanchez, Wheeler, Luzardo, and Painter should be good enough to compete with anyone in the National League. Adding a healthy Nola to that group makes it elite.
Adding a 6.04 ERA Aaron Nola to that group drags everyone else down because the bullpen gets torched covering his short outings and the offense has to dig out of early holes every time he takes the mound.
Nola’s next start is Tuesday in San Diego. I have zero confidence in it. The Phillies need him to give them six clean innings and I have no reason to believe that’s going to happen based on anything I’ve seen from him in the last two months.
Every fifth day with Nola on the mound feels like a scheduled loss and that’s a devastating thing to say about a pitcher making $24 million a year.
Figure it out or the Phillies need to start having a real conversation about what comes next. Because this isn’t working. It hasn’t been working all season. And hoping it gets better hasn’t produced any results.
Join The Chase
Read More
Phillies beat White Sox 8-6 and that’s 14 runs in 2 days from the 29th-ranked offense in baseball
The Phillies beat the White Sox 8-6 Friday night at…
Sweep City: Wheeler shoves, Garcia crushes 429-foot homer as the Phillies finally score more than 4 runs
The Phillies beat the Padres 6-2 Thursday afternoon at Citizens…
Aidan Miller needs to undergo a back procedure that will essentially end his 2026 season
The Phillies’ top prospect finally has a diagnosis and a…
Comments (0)