The Phillies win probability chart vs the Nationals is absolutely insane

The Phillies produced the third-most two-out runs by any team in a ninth inning in the entire Expansion Era dating back to 1961 and the most ninth-inning two-out runs by any Phillies team in a game in that same era, and the win probability chart from Tuesday night at Nationals Park captures the absurdity of what happened in a single image that tells the story better than any highlight package or box score ever could.

Phillies Win Probability Until The 9th

Eight consecutive hits with two outs in the ninth inning. Eight runs scored after the Phillies were down to their final strike with the bases empty and trailing by two in a game where they had already dug out of a five-run hole, taken the lead on a Realmuto bases-clearing double in the eighth, and then watched Kerkering give it right back on a Vivas three-run homer that should have been the final gut punch of a game that had already delivered about seven of them.

The win probability model looked at the Phillies with two outs and nobody on in the ninth trailing 8-6 and essentially said “this one’s over, pack it up, head to the bus” because the mathematical likelihood of what happened next is so astronomically low that the algorithm doesn’t even seriously account for it.

Then Turner singled on two strikes to keep the game alive and the line on the chart barely moved because a two-out single from a guy hitting .216 doesn’t meaningfully change the math when you still need multiple runs with one baserunner and two outs.

The model was still writing the Phillies off when Marsh stepped in with the modest goal of just getting on base for Harper, got a pitch that backed up over the plate, and launched a game-tying two-run homer that was his second in as many nights after snapping a 1-for-18 funk with a solo shot in Monday’s opener.

The line on the chart jumped from near-death to coin-flip in a single swing because that’s what a game-tying two-run homer with two outs in the ninth does to a probability model that had already given up on the team hitting it.

Three batters after Marsh’s homer, Stott hooked a three-run shot that barely stayed inside the right-field foul pole and the line went completely vertical in a way that win probability charts aren’t designed to move because the model isn’t built for a team scoring eight runs on eight consecutive hits with two outs in the final inning of a road game where they just blew a lead in the previous frame.

Three batters after Stott’s homer, Sosa crushed a two-run double and Turner tacked on an RBI single to push the lead to 14-8 while the line sat pinned to the top of the graph like it had been nailed there.

Wild One In D.C.

The Phillies’ win probability hovered around 50 percent for about an inning and a half before Washington jumped out to the five-run lead that sent the line plummeting toward the bottom of the graph where it sat for three full innings between the fourth and seventh while Luzardo was simultaneously striking out a career-high 13 batters and giving up five earned runs in one of the weirdest pitching performances in recent memory.

The line barely flickered with life during that stretch because a team trailing by five with a lineup that can’t hit left-handed pitching doesn’t register as a comeback candidate in any probability model.

THE FIGHTINS

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The Fightins: Phillies score eight runs with two outs in the ninth, turn 8-6 deficit to 14-9 win vs Nationals >>

Then the eighth inning produced the most dramatic sequence on the entire chart because Realmuto’s two-out bases-clearing double off Beeter gave the Phillies a 6-5 lead after James Wood had a piece of the liner in shallow right but couldn’t squeeze it, and the line spiked straight up from near-death to heavily favored in the span of three or four at-bats. For one brief shining moment the win probability chart showed a team that had completed one of the gutsiest comebacks of the season.

Then Kerkering walked a guy, hit a guy, and Vivas sent the three-run homer to dead center that crashed the line right back down to where it was before the rally started. The spike up and the crash down in the eighth inning are almost perfectly symmetrical on the chart, like a heartbeat on a monitor during a cardiac event, and the leverage index bars at the bottom of the graph explode during that frame because every single pitch in the eighth carried the weight of a game that was swinging wildly in both directions.

Phillies Storm Back…

After the Vivas homer put Washington back ahead 8-6, the Phillies’ win probability dropped back to somewhere around 4 or 5 percent heading into the ninth, which is where the model sends teams to die because trailing by two with three outs left and a bullpen that just gave up a three-run homer doesn’t compute as a realistic comeback scenario. The chart was flat at the bottom of the graph with two outs and nobody on, essentially a flatline on a machine that had already pronounced the game dead.

Then Turner’s two-strike single created the faintest blip on the line. Then Marsh’s two-run homer created a massive spike that brought the line back to even. Then Harper singled and the line kept climbing.

Then Hill singled and it climbed more. Then Stott’s three-run homer sent the line straight vertical from the middle of the graph to the absolute top in a movement so dramatic that it looks like someone drew it with a ruler because the Phillies went from a 5 percent chance of winning to 99 percent in the span of six batters without a single out being recorded between Marsh’s homer and the end of the rally.

The final version of the chart reads like a novel compressed into a single image with a flat line near the bottom for five innings representing the five-run deficit, a dramatic spike in the eighth representing the Realmuto double, an equally dramatic crash representing the Vivas homer, and then a rocket ship straight to the top of the graph in the ninth that makes every other movement look insignificant by comparison.

The ninth-inning spike is so steep and so sudden that it doesn’t even look like it belongs on the same chart as the rest of the game because win probability lines aren’t supposed to move like that when a team has two outs and nobody on.

The Statsexuals Were Loving It

According to the Elias Sports Bureau, what the Phillies did Tuesday night ranks third all-time in the Expansion Era for two-out runs in a ninth inning and first in Phillies franchise history for that same category, which means the win probability chart from this game isn’t just a dramatic visual but a historical document that captures one of the most improbable comebacks in the 65-year history of modern baseball.

Every single player in the starting lineup had at least one hit on a night where Schwarber was scratched minutes before first pitch with back tightness and Sosa found out he was DHing with barely enough time to adjust his pregame routine before going 2-for-5 with a two-run homer and five RBI.

Marsh went 4-for-7 with two homers across the last two games after snapping out of a 1-for-18 slump and delivered the swing that turned the chart from a death certificate into a victory lap. Stott’s three-run shot inside the foul pole was the swing that sent the line vertical and his .333/.410/.519 slash over his last 15 games is the kind of hot streak that makes the bottom of the Phillies’ lineup dangerous in a way it hasn’t been all season.

Save this win probability chart because it tells you everything about what this team has become under Mattingly without needing a single word of context. A line that goes to the bottom, fights its way back, gets knocked down again, and then explodes straight to the top in the final inning is the visual representation of a team that refuses to accept losing regardless of what the math says about their chances.

The model said the game was over at least three separate times on Tuesday night and the Phillies responded to the model the same way they’ve responded to every obstacle since Mattingly took over, which is by ignoring it completely and finding a way to win anyway.

34 wins in 50 games under Mattingly and the win probability chart from Tuesday night in Washington is the most emphatic visual evidence yet that this team has the kind of fight that carries over into October.

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