Phillies lose 6-1 to the Mets as the fifth starter problem continues to get worse

Alan Rangel got shelled for five runs in four innings on Sunday, threw 61 pitches through the first two frames, and allowed 11 of the 23 Mets he faced to reach base in a 6-1 loss that dropped the Phillies to 55-45 and three games back of the Braves in the NL East.

The Phillies lost the series to the Mets two games to one, which is not how you want to come out of the All-Star break heading into a Dodgers series next week, and Sunday’s game highlighted the single biggest problem on the roster in the most brutal way possible.

The fifth starter spot has been a black hole all season and the numbers are no longer just bad but historically bad. Between Rangel, Andrew Painter, and the four relievers who have opened games this season, the Phillies’ fifth-day starters are a combined 1-11 with a 6.87 ERA, 99 hits allowed, 16 homers surrendered, and a 1.77 WHIP across 74 2/3 innings in 21 outings.

If you add Taijuan Walker to the mix, the ERA inflates to 7.33 and the WHIP balloons to 1.82 across 25 outings.

The Phillies have lost 9 straight games from the 5th spot in the rotation:

7/8- Loss
7/2- Loss
6/27- Loss
6/22- Loss
6/17- Loss
6/12- Loss
6/6- Loss
5/31- Loss
5/24- Loss pic.twitter.com/sheTfFbXbB

— Phillies Tailgate (@PhilsTailgate) July 19, 2026

For historical context, that collective would have the fourth-highest ERA since ERA became a stat in 1913 by a starter who made at least 25 starts. The Phillies’ fifth starter group in 2026 is producing at a level of futility that belongs in a different century and the franchise is on pace to own two of the four worst marks in the history of the statistic.

The Phillies are 5-19 in those games. They haven’t won from that spot in the rotation since May 18. That’s 62 days without a win every fifth day and the number is going to keep climbing until Dombrowski does something about it because internal solutions have been exhausted and nobody in the organization has an answer for the fifth day of the rotation that doesn’t involve hoping the bullpen can cover five innings after the starter gets pulled in the fourth.

Rangel Was Serviceable Until He Wasn’t

Rangel’s first handful of starts after being called up from Triple-A looked promising with a 4.41 ERA and 17 strikeouts in 16 1/3 innings, which was significantly better than what Painter had been producing before the demotion and enough to keep the Phillies competitive in games where the fifth starter was taking the ball.

The problem is that Rangel becomes a different pitcher once the opposing lineup gets its third look at him because the funky arm angle and the zone-filling approach that works the first and second time through the order loses its effectiveness when hitters have seen the delivery enough times to time it up and start squaring the ball.

Sunday was the worst version of that problem with 61 pitches through two innings, seven hits allowed, three walks, a hit batter, and a first-inning two-run homer from Lindor that put the Phillies in a hole before the offense had collected its first hit.

Mattingly had to go to the bullpen after four innings and burn multiple relief arms to cover the final five frames, which is exactly the scenario the Phillies can’t afford with a bullpen that has been depleted by injuries all season and can’t absorb four or five innings of work every fifth day without the back-end arms burning out before October.

Phillies Trade Deadline Priority List Keeps Getting Longer

The Phillies’ deadline needs seem to change depending on which problem is screaming the loudest on any given day. When a left-handed reliever has a bad outing the need is a southpaw in the pen.

When Brad Keller sustained his season-ending UCL injury earlier this week the need became a setup man. When the lineup can’t hit lefties the need is a right-handed bat. When Sunday happens the need is rotation depth. Having at least three key holes entering the August 3 deadline with 15 days to go is not where you want to be as an organization that is trying to make the playoffs and compete for a championship.

The problem is compounded by the trade landscape because 23 of the 30 clubs in Major League Baseball were either in a playoff spot or within 3.5 games of the final Wild Card spot as of Sunday morning.

That means only seven teams are clear sellers and the supply of available players is significantly smaller than the demand from the 23 teams trying to buy, which drives prices up and makes every acquisition more expensive in terms of prospect capital than it would be in a normal deadline market.

Phillies Fifth Starter Spot Is the Hole in the Boat

The Phillies have the best top-three rotation in the National League with Sanchez, Wheeler, and Luzardo combining for a record that puts the team in a position to win every game they start. The offense has been producing at a higher level since Turner’s turnaround, Schwarber’s 33 homers, Harper’s heavy-bat surge, and Marsh’s All-Star first half. The bullpen has Duran closing games at a franchise-record save percentage and Kerkering and Bowlan emerging as reliable late-inning options.

All of that is undermined every fifth day when the rotation turns over to whoever is filling the black hole at the back end because a 6.87 ERA and a 5-19 record in 21 starts means the Phillies are essentially forfeiting one out of every five games before the first pitch is thrown.

You cannot make the playoffs and compete for a championship when 20 percent of your scheduled starts produce a historically bad ERA that ranks among the four worst in 113 years of baseball and the win-loss record in those games is so lopsided that the bullpen knows before the game starts that they’re probably going to be covering four or five innings by the fourth inning.

Dombrowski has 15 days to fix this. The Dodgers are coming and the schedule gets harder from here. The Phillies are three games back with 63 to play and every fifth-day loss is a game they can’t afford to give away in a pennant race where the margin between catching Atlanta and falling into the Wild Card is measured in the kind of games that a competent fourth or fifth starter wins and a 6.87 ERA rotation spot loses.

Last year the Phillies got lucky when Walker Buehler fell into their lap after being released by the Red Sox and became a viable backend starter for the stretch run.

That was a niche situation that can’t be counted on happening again. This year the fix has to come through the trade market and Dombrowski has to make it happen before August 3 because the internal options have been exhausted, Painter hasn’t improved since the demotion, Rangel can’t get through a lineup three times, and the bullpen can’t keep covering five innings every fifth day without the trusted arms breaking down before October.

The fifth starter spot is the hole in the boat. Fifteen days to plug it or the Phillies are going to watch the season sink from a problem they knew about for months and didn’t fix in time.

Join The Chase