No moral victories but the Aaron Nola Trust Tree has never been stronger

Well, yesterday was an absolutely maddening afternoon at Citizens Bank Park. Aaron Nola gave the Phillies everything you could possibly want, seven innings of one-run ball, and it went straight down the drain in a 5-4 loss to the Braves.

That one hurt, because you simply cannot waste a gem like that in a divisional dogfight. At the very least, Aaron Nola’s resurgence is 100% real and for those who never listened to me when I wrote countless numbers of times that the trust tree was strong, now you know.

Another Nola Gem, Plain and Simple

Aaron Nola

That guy rocks. pic.twitter.com/nHXqnYee1g

— Philadelphia Phillies (@Phillies) September 6, 2026

Aaron Nola was excellent, full stop. Seven innings, four hits, one walk, five punchouts. That’s his SEVENTH straight start of at least five innings with three or fewer runs.

Last time Aaron Nola saw Atlanta, back in April, they hung six runs on seven hits on him. That was smack in the middle of a brutal three-month stretch where he ran a 6.04 ERA, the WORST of any qualified starter in baseball.

The man was a piñata. Now? Since the start of July, he’s got a 3.26 ERA over 12 starts. Completely different pitcher, and shutting down the same Braves lineup that lit him up in the spring tells you everything about how far he’s come.

This Turnaround Is Real, and Here’s Why

Here’s the genuinely cool part, because this wasn’t just some regression to the mean. Nola actually FIXED things. Early on, teams were ambushing him on the first pitch because he doesn’t blow anyone away.

Over his first 17 starts, Aaron Nola threw the knuckle curve more than 30 percent of the time on the first pitch, and hitters teed off, batting .452 in first-pitch plate appearances with an ungodly 9.00 ERA in those spots. Brutal.

Over his last 12 starts, he’s slashed the first-pitch knuckle-curve by eight points and cranked the changeup up seven. Now, opponents are hitting .310 in first-pitch plate appearances now with a 3.86 ERA in those situations.

Not sexy, but a massive leap, because almost nobody thrives when hitters jump the first pitch. He also kept his pitch count in check Sunday by attacking all day, three first-pitch outs and two strikes on 14 hitters.

The two-strike stuff is night and day. First 17 starts, hitters batted .220 against him with two strikes, third-worst among qualified starters. Last 12 we have a measly .177. Put-away rate up, chase rate up.

Aaron Nola is actually finishing guys now instead of letting them hang around and beat him. That’s the whole difference between the April punching bag and the September problem.

The loss is infuriating, no sugarcoating it. When your starter gives you seven innings of one-run ball, that’s a W you’re supposed to bank, and the Phillies didn’t get it done around him. That’s on the bats and the pen, and in a tight race with the Braves, these are the exact games that come back to bite you square in the ass come October.

The big-picture Nola story is a genuine gift. The guy with the worst ERA of any qualified starter in baseball through three months has completely reinvented himself into a trustworthy, adjustment-making horse right when this team needs it most.

A rotation of Sanchez, Luzardo, Wheeler, Nola, and Painter all humming at once is a downright scary October group.

Join The Chase