Survive and Advance: Everything you need to know about Phillies-Braves NL Wild Card Game 3

The Braves stole Game 1 with a late comeback, and the Phillies took it right back from them in Game 2. Now it’s one game for everything on Thursday night at Truist Park, and this series is turning into exactly what everyone expected from these two teams in October.

Win, and the Phillies get an NLDS rematch with the Dodgers, the team that knocked them out last year. Lose, and the Braves are back in the NLDS for the first time since the Phillies sent them home in 2023.

First Pitch Time Shift

First pitch is at 8 p.m. ET on NBC and Peacock. I’ll be honest, I wish this one stayed at 2 p.m. The Phillies have owned the afternoon in this series, and I would’ve loved to see them jump on Atlanta in the daylight again. A night game under the lights in an elimination spot is still about as good as it gets, though.

Phillies Pitching: Nola Gets the Ball, With Everybody Behind Him

The Phillies met after Game 2 to sort out the plan, and Don Mattingly had already said Monday that Aaron Nola was lining up for Game 3. All signs point to Nola getting the ball first tonight.

Nola won’t be on his own. Zack Wheeler is the obvious weapon here. It wouldn’t have been crazy to see him start on short rest, but if he’s not starting, he’s coming out of the bullpen at some point. There’s no world where the Phillies lose this game with Wheeler sitting in the bullpen unused.

Jesús Luzardo, who started Game 1, and Andrew Painter, who saved the season with three innings in Game 2, both said they’ll be available too. That’s a lot of quality arms for one game. Mattingly called it all hands on deck, and he meant it.

Braves Pitching…TBD?

Atlanta hasn’t named a starter, which tells you everything about where they’re at. Grant Holmes is expected to handle the bulk of the innings, but the Braves haven’t decided if he’ll start or follow an opener. If they go with an opener, it’ll likely be one of two lefties, Ray Kerr or Brent Suter, with the job of getting through Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber in the first inning.

The Phillies are throwing a veteran with years of big-game experience and an ace behind him. The Braves are mixing and matching to survive the first inning.

I like that matchup a lot.

Projected Phillies Lineup:

The Phillies haven’t released the lineup yet, and the big question is Edmundo Sosa, who left Game 2 with a right leg injury. If he can’t go, Harper likely moves back to first base, Bohm shifts to third and Derek Hill probably slides into right field.

1. Trea Turner, SS
2. Kyle Schwarber, DH
3. Bryce Harper, 1B
4. Alec Bohm, 3B
5. Bryson Stott, 2B
6. Derek Hill, RF
7. Brandon Marsh, LF
8. J.T. Realmuto, C
9. Justin Crawford, CF

Projected Braves Lineup:

Atlanta’s lineup is better against right-handers, and they’ll likely go with their stronger group against Nola. Mike Yastrzemski would play left, which moves Mauricio Dubón to shortstop and takes Ha-Seong Kim out of the lineup after he started the first two games.

1. Drake Baldwin, DH
2. Ronald Acuña Jr., RF
3. Matt Olson, 1B
4. Michael Harris II, CF
5. Mauricio Dubón, SS
6. Ozzie Albies, 2B
7. Austin Riley, 3B
8. Mike Yastrzemski, LF
9. Sean Murphy, C

The Bullpens:

Mattingly made it clear that every pitcher besides Cristopher Sánchez should be available in some form tonight. The one real question is Jhoan Duran. He wasn’t available in Game 2 after throwing two innings in Game 1, and Mattingly said he’s hoping to have him back for Game 3.

Having Duran ready would make an already loaded group of arms even better.

The Braves have Raisel Iglesias, Didier Fuentes and Dylan Lee, who all pitched in the first two games and should be ready to go.

The wild card is Robert Suarez, who still hasn’t pitched in this series. He was dominant before his elbow flared up in June, posting a 0.56 ERA in 31 appearances, but he missed three months and has only made two appearances since coming back last week.

Walt Weiss may not have a choice but to lean on him tonight, and that’s a lot to ask of a guy who barely pitched all summer.

Survive and Advance

The Phillies have Nola on the mound, Wheeler waiting behind him and a bullpen that’s as rested as it’s going to get. The Braves are figuring out who’s starting the day of the game. The Phillies are 3-0 against Atlanta in postseason series, and they’ve been the better October team in this rivalry every time it’s mattered. Make it 4-0 tonight.

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