Lucky Lucciano: NFL Win Totals (The Overs) and the Heisman Four

If you read my first article, you’d realize that I love bettin’ unders for NFL season win totals. So many teams are overhyped because of new coaches and quarterbacks in an “innovative” system. However, each year, it’s like the Men in Black Neuralyzer hits football fans, and they forget most of those types of teams struggle to start the season. I gave out five unders in my previous blog, but this one will be limited to two overs and some individual NFL bets that I am confident in taking. Also, I’ll give out my four Heisman horsemen which have appreciated in value since I first placed them back in July. Let’s start with the NFL OVER win totals for 2021.

Author’s Note: I am setting my units to 50, but do whatever amount you are comfortable with waging

But first, for the trouble makers, if you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-522-4700; help is available 24/7 and 100% confidential.

*all odds via Parx Sportsbook as of 9/1/21*

Read More: Lucky Lucciano Origns and NFL Unders >>

Minnesota Vikings OVER 9.0 wins

ODDS: -104

BET: $52

WIN: $50.44

Besides their re-building offensive line, the Vikings have some of the most dynamic weapons in the NFC. This team includes many electric weapons, from breakout rookie Justin Jefferson, workhorse back Dalvin Cook, and reliable-handed Adam Thielen. However, risking $50 on Kirk Cousins’ performance makes me a little nervous. 

But, given the state of the NFC North with the Bears in QB limbo for now and the Lions trotting out Jared Goff, I feel pretty confident in their ability to sweep both of those opponents. Their defensive units all rank within PFF’s Top 16 heading into 2021, with their secondary being the weak point. The defensive backs now compromise of Patrick Peterson, Bashaud Breeland, and Xavier Woods. We’ll see how Mike Zimmer fits these guys into his complex defensive scheme.

Los Angeles Rams OVER 10.5 wins

ODDS: +180

BET: $50

WIN: $90

I think the Rams are going to finish this season with the best record in the NFL. People will point to Matthew Stafford’s mediocre career and never being able to get over the hump. I hope those same people realize he was playing in a completely dysfunctional Detroit franchise. After taking Stafford #1 in 2009, the Lions first-round picks went as follows:

• 2010 #2 pick – DT Ndamukong Suh
• 2010 #30 pick – RB Jahvid Best
• 2011 #13 pick – DT Nick Fairley
• 2012 #23 pick – OT Riley Reiff
• 2013 #5 pick – DE Ziggy Ansah
• 2014 #10 pick – TE Eric Ebron
• 2015 #28 pick – OG Laken Tomlinson

Stafford had no offensive line play, no semblance of an offensive-minded head coach, and a bottom-tier defense almost every season.

Now, Stafford is with Sean McVay, one of the brightest offensive minds in the game today, an offensive line ranked 8th best per PFF. Most importantly, he finally has a dominating defense that won’t force him to come back from deficits every single week. Los Angeles finished 10-6 last season with Goff under center. I don’t think anyone in the division is on the Rams level in the NFC West.

Random Individual Bets I Like

Darren Waller OVER 7.5 receiving TDs

ODDS: +100

BET: $50

WIN: $50

Corey Davis OVER 4.5 receiving TDs

ODDS: -112

BET: $56

WIN: $50.40

Offensive Rookie of the Year: Mac Jones

ODDS: +550

BET: $20

WIN: $110

Defensive Rookie of the Year: JOK (CLE)

ODDS: +800

BET: $20

WIN: $160

2021 Sack Leader: Chase Young

ODDS: +1500

BET: $20

WIN: $300

The Heisman Four

Now time for some college football. Like a psychopath, I put my bets for Heisman winners back in late July, tossing $10 to win $1,000. The units here (besides for Sam Howell) break that $1,000 mark with the updated odds so that long-term hold wins you a nice bag. I have one of the favorites on this list (Howell), with the rest being dark horse candidates that I think can put up the stats to be considered a Heisman finalist.

*all odds via Parx Sportsbook as of 8/31/21*

UNC QB Sam Howell +1700

BET: $30

WIN: $510

UPS should sponsor Sam Howell cause he always delivers

pic.twitter.com/Q29GK3oeCn

— PFF College (@PFF_College) July 1, 2021

Florida QB Emory Jones +3300

BET: $31

WIN: $1,023

Highest rushing grade from non-RBs last season:
1. Emory Jones, Florida – 86.1
2. Justin Fields, Ohio St – 84.3
3. Malik Willis, Liberty – 83.1 pic.twitter.com/6oN2GwWG5K

— PFF College (@PFF_College) February 4, 2021

Iowa State QB Brock Purdy +3300

BET: $31

WIN: $1,023

Most big-time throws under pressure in 2019

– Brock Purdy, Iowa State – 15
– Trevor Lawrence, Clemson – 11
– Joe Burrow, LSU – 11
– Josh Love, SJSU – 10 pic.twitter.com/50LBvLFgve

— PFF College (@PFF_College) June 26, 2020

Indiana QB Michael Penix Jr. +5000

BET: $20

WIN: $1,000

Most passing yards under pressure in a game since 2014

1. Michael Penix Jr ('20 vs OSU) – 305
2. Patrick Mahomes ('16 vs Oklahoma) – 278
3. Patrick Mahomes ('16 vs Kansas St) – 273 pic.twitter.com/okiTGNOgHM

— PFF College (@PFF_College) November 23, 2020

Stay tuned for a ton of new gambling content from The Liberty Line and great promotions and odds boosts from TLL and Parx Sportsbook in the coming weeks. Let’s win some money this football season or at the very least, go down in a heap of flames together.