Lucky Lucciano: NFL Win Totals (The Overs) and the Heisman Four
If you read my first article, you’d realize that I love bettin’ unders for NFL season win totals. So many teams are overhyped because of new coaches and quarterbacks in an “innovative” system. However, each year, it’s like the Men in Black Neuralyzer hits football fans, and they forget most of those types of teams struggle to start the season. I gave out five unders in my previous blog, but this one will be limited to two overs and some individual NFL bets that I am confident in taking. Also, I’ll give out my four Heisman horsemen which have appreciated in value since I first placed them back in July. Let’s start with the NFL OVER win totals for 2021.
Author’s Note: I am setting my units to 50, but do whatever amount you are comfortable with waging
But first, for the trouble makers, if you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-522-4700; help is available 24/7 and 100% confidential.
*all odds via Parx Sportsbook as of 9/1/21*
Minnesota Vikings OVER 9.0 wins
Besides their re-building offensive line, the Vikings have some of the most dynamic weapons in the NFC. This team includes many electric weapons, from breakout rookie Justin Jefferson, workhorse back Dalvin Cook, and reliable-handed Adam Thielen. However, risking $50 on Kirk Cousins’ performance makes me a little nervous.
But, given the state of the NFC North with the Bears in QB limbo for now and the Lions trotting out Jared Goff, I feel pretty confident in their ability to sweep both of those opponents. Their defensive units all rank within PFF’s Top 16 heading into 2021, with their secondary being the weak point. The defensive backs now compromise of Patrick Peterson, Bashaud Breeland, and Xavier Woods. We’ll see how Mike Zimmer fits these guys into his complex defensive scheme.
Los Angeles Rams OVER 10.5 wins
I think the Rams are going to finish this season with the best record in the NFL. People will point to Matthew Stafford’s mediocre career and never being able to get over the hump. I hope those same people realize he was playing in a completely dysfunctional Detroit franchise. After taking Stafford #1 in 2009, the Lions first-round picks went as follows:
- 2010 #2 pick – DT Ndamukong Suh
- 2010 #30 pick – RB Jahvid Best
- 2011 #13 pick – DT Nick Fairley
- 2012 #23 pick – OT Riley Reiff
- 2013 #5 pick – DE Ziggy Ansah
- 2014 #10 pick – TE Eric Ebron
- 2015 #28 pick – OG Laken Tomlinson
Stafford had no offensive line play, no semblance of an offensive-minded head coach, and a bottom-tier defense almost every season.
Now, Stafford is with Sean McVay, one of the brightest offensive minds in the game today, an offensive line ranked 8th best per PFF. Most importantly, he finally has a dominating defense that won’t force him to come back from deficits every single week. Los Angeles finished 10-6 last season with Goff under center. I don’t think anyone in the division is on the Rams level in the NFC West.
Random Individual Bets I Like
Darren Waller OVER 7.5 receiving TDs
Corey Davis OVER 4.5 receiving TDs
Offensive Rookie of the Year: Mac Jones
Defensive Rookie of the Year: JOK (CLE)
2021 Sack Leader: Chase Young
The Heisman Four
Now time for some college football. Like a psychopath, I put my bets for Heisman winners back in late July, tossing $10 to win $1,000. The units here (besides for Sam Howell) break that $1,000 mark with the updated odds so that long-term hold wins you a nice bag. I have one of the favorites on this list (Howell), with the rest being dark horse candidates that I think can put up the stats to be considered a Heisman finalist.
*all odds via Parx Sportsbook as of 8/31/21*
UNC QB Sam Howell +1700
Florida QB Emory Jones +3300
Iowa State QB Brock Purdy +3300
Indiana QB Michael Penix Jr. +5000
Stay tuned for a ton of new gambling content from The Liberty Line and great promotions and odds boosts from TLL and Parx Sportsbook in the coming weeks. Let’s win some money this football season or at the very least, go down in a heap of flames together.