Well, well, well. After a 5-3 Week Four, it appears as if I have hit the .500 mark at 16-16 on the year. I’ve been hovering around even with College Football bets, and one of these weeks, I will breakthrough in glorious fashion or go down in a heap of flames. Either way, I’m ready for what’s to come.

Here are my College Football Week Five plays.

But first, if you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-522-4700; help is available 24/7 and 100% confidential.

*all odds via Parx Sportsbook as of 10/1/21*

Wisconsin -2 vs. #14 Michigan

NOON EST, FOX

This line REAKS. Vegas is begging the Michigan faithful to hammer this game. As of Friday around noon, 53% of the bets are on Michigan, while 70% of the money is on the Badgers. And that’s why I’m going contrarian here.

An undefeated Wolverine team with zero turnovers somehow is not favored against Wisconsin, who’s lost two games with nine turnovers on the year. Wisconsin boasts a formidable defense, allowing only 23 rushing yards per game. Also, this Badgers’ defense has allowed fewer offensive touchdowns on the year than any other team besides Georgia.

#9 Notre Dame ML (+105) vs. #7 Cincinnati

2:30 PM EST, ABC

Notre Dame as a home underdog equals an automatic Irish moneyline bet from me, and I personally despise them. Question marks surround QB Jack Coan’s availability for Saturday, but all signs point to him starting.

On the other side, Cincy’s QB Desmond Ridder and the entire Bearcats squad did not look formidable in their first “test” of the season. They prevailed 38-24 over the Indiana Hoosiers on the road after trailing at halftime and capitalizing off two crucial Indiana turnovers. Lastly, Notre Dame has an ace up its sleeve with new DC Marcus Freeman. He went against Ridder every day at practice for the past three years at Cincinnati and should know how to exploit his weaknesses.

Eastern Michigan at Northern Illinois OVER 60

2:30 PM EST, ESPN+

Both of these bottom-tier defenses allow over 400 total yards on the season, while both juggernaut offenses average over 370 total yards per game. Both teams have played in some wild shootout games, and I expect nothing less in this MAC West showdown.

#4 Penn State -12.5 vs. Indiana

7:30 PM EST, ABC

Every Penn State fan remembers the way last season started. Michael Penix Jr sheds his Indiana uniform to reveal a superman suit underneath and makes that miraculous dive to the pylon for a successful two-point conversion. Game lost—season over in one week.

Tons of players on this current Penn State team remember that game very well. After suffering that unfortunate knee injury later in the season, Penix Jr is not the same dual-threat option he once was. In the past two games, he’s been throwing the ball a minimum 40 times per game. Indiana playing pass-heavy plays right into Penn State’s strength; it’s secondary. Lastly, Nittany Lions’ OC Mike Yurchich and QB Sean Clifford have improved every game and face a lackluster secondary in the Hoosiers.

LSU -3 vs. #22 Auburn

9:00 PM EST, ESPN

Trailing Georgia State 24-19 late in the 3rd quarter, Auburn benched an ineffective Bo Nix in favor of LSU transfer TJ Finley. The optics were not good. Nix appeared to be sulking at the end of the bench while his team tried to rally a comeback. It’s a terrible look for Bo Nix as the team has to push past this and attempt to win a night game in Death Valley. Outlook = not good.

I will be adding more plays on Saturday, so follow me on Twitter @matthewlucci to get the rest.

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