2023 College Football National Championship Betting Preview: The sharp money is speaking and we should listen
The end of the college football season and one of the most incredible gambling stretches comes to a close as TCU faces Georgia in the National Championship game.
Bowl season and the first weekend of March Madness forever hold a special place in my heart, and they’re even sweeter when you make some money on top of the thrilling action. I was embarrassingly still hungover from New Year’s Eve but managed to pull myself into the lab, where I cooked up a 5-0-1 day to cap off an epic week.
Previewing everything from the Camellia Bowl to the College Football Playoff games, I went 22-13-1 from December 27th to January 2nd. The sweetest victory was the +550 Lucky Lucciano Lottery Ticket that ended with Penn State defeating Utah in the Rose Bowl, but I also had plenty of bitter defeats of bad beats.
As Colin Cowherd always reminds us, “Celebrate rarely, focus often.” Let’s preview the 2023 College Football National Championship and make sure you take advantage of these offers from DraftKings and FanDuel when making those picks for tonight’s game.
DraftKings Sportsbook: Bet $5, Win $200 INSTANTLY
- Sign up for a new DraftKings account
- Make Your First Deposit
- Bet $5+ On Any Sport
- Get $200 In Free Bets Instantly
The 2023 National Championship is basic middle school transitive property math. If A = C and B = C, we can confirm all quantities are identical. Michigan throttled Ohio State, TCU handled Michigan, and Georgia struggled to put away Ohio State. The Buckeyes’ offense totaled 467 yards and scored 42 points against (statistically) the best defense in the country. However, that unit is struggling in the postseason after the College Football Playoff performance and SEC Championship game, allowing over 500 yards and 30 points to LSU.
Enter Sonny Dykes and the Horned Frogs’ offense, who just put up a 50 burger in their upset victory over Michigan. Dykes is seeking to become the fourth-ever head coach to win a National Title in his first year as the head coach of a program with Larry Coker and the Miami Hurricanes last accomplishing the feat in 2001.
FanDuel Sportsbook: Bet $5, Get $150 in Free Bets
- Sign up for a new FanDuel account
- Make Your First Deposit
- Bet $5 On Any Sport
- Get $150 In Free Bets Instantly
TCU is clicking on all cylinders, led by their Heisman finalist quarterback, Max Duggan, who displayed his grit and playmaking ability all season. Statistically, Duggan is the best deep ball passer in college football, ranking first in completion percentage and touchdown throws over 20 yards. Despite Kirby Smart’s defense facing two high-powered passing attacks in their previous two games, this Horned Frogs offense is a different breed.
His favorite target is 6-foot-4, 215-pound wide receiver Quentin Johnston, PFF’s 8th-ranked overall prospect and number-one wide receiver heading into April’s draft. Johnston plays exclusively as an outside receiver on the left side, and the Bulldogs seem to have the perfect counter for the NFL talent.
6-foot-2, 210-pound cornerback Kelee Ringo is PFF’s 14th overall draft prospect and top-ranked defensive back. The All-SEC corner played over 470 coverage snaps before allowing his first touchdown of the season to Marvin Harrison Jr, the only catch he allowed to the Ohio State phenom all game. Quentin Johnston versus Kelee Ringo should be the most exciting individual matchup in this year’s National Championship.
The Horned Frogs bring the fifth-ranked scoring offense (41.1 points per game) against a notable struggling Georgia defense but could be without one of their key playmakers. Running back Kendre Miller totaled 57 yards on eight carries (7.1 yards per attempt) before exiting the Fiesta Bowl with a sprained MCL. His status is 50/50, as he reportedly will warm up and see how that right knee feels. Miller’s backup, super senior Emari Demercado, looked all the parts of a bellow back with 150 rushing yards and a touchdown against the Wolverines.
Georgia’s run defense ranks first in the Power Five conferences, surrendering only 80.0 yards per game and 3.0 yards per carry on the ground. That portion of the Bulldogs’ defense held strong against Ohio State who ran 32 times for 3.7 yards per carry and attempted 34 passes.
Unlike previous years, Kirby Smart does not have to rely solely on his defense to win games. Stetson Bennett, another Heisman finalist quarterback, transformed into Mr. Holiday Season with his dominating performances in Georgia’s last four postseason games, including this year’s SEC Title Game. In those four games, Bennett is averaging over 300 passing yards with 12 touchdowns to only one interception.
Dealing with an injury to an offensive weapon of their own, Georgia tight end Darnell Washington missed the second half against Ohio State with an ankle injury and has been rehabbing hard to play in the National Championship. The team’s fourth-leading receiver is critical to their two tight end offensive sets as one of the better blocking tight ends in the nation.
On top of Washington’s questionable tag, leading receiver Ladd McConkey left the Peach Bowl after only two catches with knee tendinitis that has been bothering him all season. However, one of the more dynamic weapons in all of college football, tight end Brock Bowers, is ready to go against the 92nd-ranked passing defense in the country. The sophomore star is the definition of a matchup nightmare, standing six-foot-three and weighing 230 pounds with wide receiver-type speed.
Kirby Smart’s offense starts and ends with their trio of running backs. Kenny McIntosh (779 yards, 10 TDs), Daijun Edwards (739 yards, 7 TDs), and Kendall Milton (559 yards, 7 TDs) combine to average 5.5 yards per carry. McIntosh, a six-foot-one, 210-pound senior, also finished as the team’s third-leading receiver behind McConkey and Bowers with 505 yards through the air. Dealing with one of those running backs, let alone all three, is a terrifying proposition for the Horned Frogs’ 70th-ranked run defense, allowing over 150 rushing yards per game.
Public betting becomes a massive factor in deciding which team to back in a game like the College Football National Championship. With over 220,000 bets counted so far, nearly 70% are on the Horned Frogs to cover the spread. However, TCU is seeing only 39% of the money to Georgia’s 61% despite that disparity in the number of bets.Â
With that money split but 70% of the action on the underdog, please give me the Bulldogs -13. Kelee Ringo should prevent Quentin Johnston from taking over, and the team with better run defense and offense usually wins the College Football National Championship. If Georgia does it again, it will be four straight titles for the SEC.
National Championship Bets:
Georgia -13 (-110)
OVER 63.0 (-110)
TCU Team Total OVER 24.5 (-110)
National Championship Player Props (only in NJ!)
Stetson Bennett OVER 275.5 pass yds (-115)
Kenny McIntosh OVER 28.5 rec yds (-115)
Max Duggan OVER 33.5 rush yds (-115)
Taye Barber OVER 35.5 rec yds (-115)
