Ivan Provorov’s days as a Flyer could well be numbered. According to Elliote Friedman, mutual frustration between Provorov and the Flyers is starting to grow.

LISTEN: Flyers and Ivan Provorov Trade is Looming

From what I can gather based on Friedman’s statements, Provorov is frustrated with the organization because it continues to produce miserable hockey teams. The organization is frustrated with Provorov because his refusal to step into the role of #1 defenseman is very high on the list of reasons they continue to produce miserable hockey teams.

I am surprised to hear none of this. Frankly, I am baffled that it has taken this long for things to reach this point. The team has been deeply unserious for years now.

Now, it isn’t about who’s right and wrong here. The truth is: they’re both right!

Ivan Provorov is right to resent the Flyers for producing terrible hockey teams and making him play with a losing roster after losing roster.

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The Flyers are right to resent Ivan Provorov–their #7 overall pick in the vaunted 2015 Draft, and at one point, seemingly a future star D-man–for failing to meet expectations year after year.

Ivan Provorov was supposed to be a cornerstone of the next core, but he has since demonstrated that won’t happen. If he does have the ability to become an elite player, he doesn’t have the capability of reaching that ceiling for the Flyers.

This Is Good:

A lot of fans, in reaction to this news, are bellyaching at the idea of taking a step backwards. What they fail to realize is: this is a team in need of a rebuild.

In a rebuild, there is only one type of player you keep. Those who can become core, irreplaceable pieces for your team in the future. Ivan Provorov simply is not that guy.

Maybe he becomes that guy elsewhere. But he will never be that guy here in Philly. So it’s time to trade him.

A Potential Return:

Honestly, I have no idea what a return may look like. Provorov does have a pretty good reputation around the league, one that greatly belies his actual production of late. And there is probably some belief that he can be redeemed. Here are some trades of comparable defenseman, and what they landed:

Seth Jones:

Seth Jones was traded from Columbus to Chicago for Adam Boqvist, a 1st round pick in 2021, a 2nd round pick, and a 1st round pick in 2022 (top 2 protected, deferred to 2023 if protections are activated).

The return, in essence, was: a top defensive prospect, two 1st round picks, and a 2nd round pick.

Hampus Lindholm:

Hampus Lindholm was traded from Anaheim to Boston for a 1st round pick in 2022, 2nd round picks in 2023 and 2024, Urho Vaakanainen, and John Moore.

John Moore, no offense to him, was essentially a placeholder.

The return for Hampus, in essence, was: a top-4 defenseman prospect, a 1st round pick, and two 2nd round picks.

At the time of the trade, Seth Jones was one half of one of the best defensive pairs in hockey. His pairing with Werenski was dominant, but the Blue Jackets didn’t want to pay him the money he was requesting. He wanted to be paid like a number one defenseman, and the Blackhawks ultimately gave in.

The Blue Jackets sold high, and they got a premium return because of that.

The Ducks sold relatively low, and they got a respectable return.

Ivan Provorov is not being sold at a high point of his career. His status is much closer to Hampus Lindholm, in that way.

But Provorov is younger than Hampus by multiple years, and has shown flashes of a ceiling higher than what Hampus’ was thought to be at the time of the trade.

The return on Ivan Provorov is likely somewhere in the middle.

A 2023 1st is almost guaranteed, and there is obvious value in a second one of those for this draft. From there, you can seemingly go two different routes. You can pick up a premium prospect that the organization has somewhat soured on, like the Hawks had with Boqvist.

Or you can pick up even more draft capital instead, perhaps even two 1st round picks total.

Join The Chase

Mandatory Credit: Flyers Twitter