NFL Super Wildcard Weekend: Skylar Thompson’s quest for the upset of the year over Josh Allen
The second day of Super Wildcard Weekend continues with another divisional matchup between the Miami Dolphins and Buffalo Bills. Yesterday, Christian McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel helped fund some bankroll, while Zay Jones chipped in on Saturday night. Overall, I finished 4-4 on straight bets and lost both lottery tickets, which is funny money anyway.
Yesterday’s worst beat was the Danny Tanner Lotto Ticker SGP at +500. Three of the six bets hit within the 49ers’ first drive, but Run CMC came up eight receiving yards short of a huge payday. George Kittle failed to score and missed his total by eight yards as well. Justin Herbert almost entered my “gambling hate list” with this missed touchdown to a wide-open Keenan Allen.
As they say, the NFL Playoffs, especially Super Wildcard Weekend, is an entirely different season, so I’m just getting a feel for this new sport. Regardless, we enter the lab once again, and move onward with a deep dive into the opening game.
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Dolphins at Bills (-13.5) | O/U 43.5
These AFC East opponents face off in their rubber match game with the season series tied at 1-1. This time, things are vastly different due to the unfortunate injury bug that plagues teams late in the year.
Mike McDaniels announced Tua Tagovailoa is out after sustaining his second (fourth?) brutal concussion in Week 16. Raheem Mostert, who ran for 136 yards in Miami’s Week 14 over the Bills, broke his thumb last week. He received surgery on Monday, and Mike McDaniels officially ruled him out despite hinting that his leading rusher might play.
Raheem Mostert’s 100-yard performance was the first time since Buffalo’s early November overtime loss to the Vikings that their defense yielded a 100-yard rusher. Sean McDermott’s unit ranks 5th in the NFL against the run at only 104.6 yards per game. Jeff Wilson Jr. will assume most of the running back duties after the Dolphins traded for him from San Francisco at the deadline.
Wilson reunited with former offensive coordinator Mike McDaniels and is tied for the team lead in rushing touchdowns (3) while averaging 4.7 yards per carry in eight games. When Wilson received ten or more carries, he ran for 68.75 yards per game, including a 119-yard outing in his 2nd game with Miami. If the game gets out of hand and the Dolphins abandon the run, Wilson remains a premium check-down target for the inexperienced Skylar Thompson.
The more important news is that seventh-round rookie quarterback Skylar Thompson starts his second straight game. The Dolphins’ abundance of game-breaking players should help the young quarterback in a rowdy Buffalo playoff environment. Jaylen Waddle went over 100 yards receiving in both matchups against the Bills, while Tyreek Hill saw 13 targets, catching nine for 69 yards and a score in Week 15.
Dolphins Wildcard Weekend Bets:
- Jeff Wilson Jr Anytime TD (+175)
- Jeff Wilson Jr OVER 79.5 rush/rec yds (-115)
- Tyreek Hill OVER 61.5 yards (-115)
The Dolphins’ 27th-ranked passing defense should have its hands full against Josh Allen and his playmaking ability down the field. Miami allows 234.8 yards through the air, and cornerback Xavien Howard struggles on the outside. His 80 targets against are 2nd most on defense and his 826 yards against lead the team. Howard allows a 67.5% catch rate with six touchdowns and a 121.1 passer rating when targeted. Stefon Diggs might go for over 100 yards if not for the divisional familiarity.
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With a Jekyll and Hyde rushing attack, you can’t be sure which Bills offense you will watch each game. But you can always count on Josh Allen to create magic. He’s rushed for over 40 yards in 11 of 16 games and averages 6.1 yards per rush in his last four games against Miami. Another weapon Josh Allen utilizes, especially at home, is tight end, Dawson Knox. Miami’s defense against tight ends is one of the worst in the NFL, letting up 5.82 receptions (4th worst) and 57.06 yards (8th worst) per game.
Dawson Knox Home vs. Away Splits
Bills Wildcard Weekend Bets:
- Dawson Knock Anytime TD (+200)
- Dawson Knox OVER 33.5 rec yds (-115)
Bills Mafia Lottery Ticket SGP +360
- Diggs Anytime TD
- Diggs 65+ rec yds
- Allen 35+ rush yds
- Knox 3+ receptions
One of the most influential but unmentioned aspects of Wildcard Weekend is the referees calling the game until they make a huge mistake. Brad Allen’s crew threw the third-most flags per game at 14.5 during the regular season. The Dolphins committed the second-most penalties in the league (134), while the Bills ranked 14th (115) and 2nd in defensive holdings penalties (11). On average, Brad Allen and his squad thew one defensive holding flag per game.
The first game on Sunday of Super Wildcard Weekend marks the second of three divisional matchups this round. Facing the same team for a third time in one season means both opponents are hyper-aware of their typical schemes and go-to plays. We saw it yesterday in San Francisco as the 9.5-point underdog Seahawks hung with the 49ers for the first half. Finally, since 2014, underdogs are 8-2 against the spread when meeting division opponents in the playoffs, and the 49ers covered yesterday.
Dolphins/Bills Wildcard Weekend Bets:
- Dolphins +13.5 (-110)
- UNDER 43.5 (-110)
Bill Belichick Frowny Face Lottery Ticket SGP +1200
- Diggs Anytime TD
- Diggs 65+ rec yds
- Hill Anytime TD
- Hill 50+ rec yds
- Josh Allen 35+ rush yds
- Dawson Knox 20+ rec yds
Featured Image Credit: AP Photo/Wilfredo Lee
