Tank Watch Vol. 3: Let’s Talk About Dalibor Dvorsky
Since our last update on the Tank Watch, the Flyers have gone 2-2-1.
Their little hot streak has worn off. It was bound to happen. In the doing of this little heater, unfortunately, they locked themselves out of the 5th and 6th spots of the upcoming draft.
We’ll see how much that ends up mattering. I believe there may be a shakeup coming within this draft that throws everyone’s pre-draft boards totally out of whack.
And that leads me to what I really want to talk about. (This team losing games, as it’s meant to do, barely qualifies as interesting to me.)
He’s Not Bedard; You Still Want Him: Dalibor Dvorsky.
There is no more divisive prospect in this draft—save for Andrew Cristall—than Dalibor Dvorsky.
Public draft lists and unaffiliated scouts view him as a late 1st round draft pick with a low ceiling and a relatively high floor. A safe pick, and nothing more.
In Flyers terms, they see him as a relatively sure bet to be Noah Cates. A great shutdown center. But unlikely to affect games offensively.
Their view is based on his league play against men—HockeyAllsvenskan, Sweden’s AHL equivalent, and the SHL—where he has consistently been a low scoring player.
Secondarily, his 3 points in 5 games performance at the World Juniors did little to dissuade people.
Anyone who follows @GrantMcCagg on Twitter, however, would know that NHL scouts are much higher on Dvorsky than their public counterparts.
In my personal experience, I’ve seen enough to be convinced that Grant’s connection to the NHL scouting world is very real. If he’s hearing something, it’s likely a very real sentiment in the scouting universe. It may not be the opinion of every scout, but certainly of a plurality.
According to Grant, he “hasn’t spoken to a single scout that has Dvorsky ranked outside of the top-7.”
That means—if he’s right—the Flyers will either take him. Or Dvorsky will already be gone.
And why is that? Do they not care about his offensive ceiling?
No, they just disagree that he has a low offensive ceiling.
If you bring up his point production in the Sweden men’s leagues, they’ll respond that he’s an 18 year old kid playing against men.
More than that, they’ll say that Dvorsky’s defensive excellence leads to his coaches casting him in a checking-line role where his job is defense first. And scoring later.
They’ll say that Dalibor Dvorsky in the SHL is much like Sean Coutorier in the NHL before he was bumped up to play with Giroux. His job is to check right now.
Even in World Juniors, they’ll continue, Dvorsky’s job was to shut down top lines. He was a 17 year old playing for a decent team in a U20 tournament. This wasn’t his time to shine. It was his time to lock down Connor Bedard, and he did an admirable job of it. (As much as anyone can)
When Dvorsky is put in a top-6 role among his peers and told to score? He dominates.
In 10 games with Sweden’s U20 league, he has 10 goals and 11 assists for 21 points. I don’t care what league he’s playing in. Over 2 points per game is impressive.
To further make the case, NHL Scouts will point out the U18 WJC tournament that Dvorsky played in during his D-1 season.
He destroyed that tournament. In 5 games, Dvorsky posted a statline of 5-6-11.
That was the last time Dalibor had played a top-6 role against his peers, and he completely obliterated them for a goal and an assist per game.
On a per game basis, Dalibor finished 2nd in that tournament in scoring. Behind Matvei Michkov. And ahead of Connor Bedard.
His defensive game is high HIGH end. He could play defenseman in a pinch. His comfort skating backward and taking on forwards 1v1 almost doesn’t make sense. He’s so active on breakouts that he might as well be like having a third puck moving defenseman at the center spot.
But his offensive game, regardless of where you side on him, is slept on. His shot is electric, and his release is among the betters of this draft. He shows higher end puck skills in flashes, and his panic threshold is eerily low. He has no issue hanging onto pucks. When he adds muscle, he’ll be a beast protecting them. And his vision appears in his game tape just enough to let you know it is there.
Dvorsky, in the view adopted by these scouts, has all the offensive skill of a top pick. He also has all the defensive acumen of a future shutdown center. In a scout’s eyes, what does that make him?
A Selke winner in the making. Someone in the mold of Mark Stone or Sean Coutorier or—at the highest end outcome—Pavel Datsyuk.
And Dvorsky will get one more chance to prove his supporters correct… at this year’s U18 World Juniors.
Mandatory Credit: Johnny Ulecka
