Two Stone Cold LOCKS for Heat vs. Celtics Game 7, NBA Picks & Predictions 5.29
We’re putting our undefeated streak with these NBA bets on the line for this Heat/Celtics Game 7 matchup. I have written two NBA articles, given out two picks in each, and have yet to miss.
4-0 seems good to me, but we are only as good as our last bet, so let’s keep the streak alive.
Heat vs. Celtics Total Under 203.5 | -110 at DraftKings
This can also be found on BetMGM also at -110 odds, if you prefer. Regardless, one of the top sports betting commandments is to bet the under in Game 7s.
So far in these playoffs, there have been two game 7s, and both of them went under the total. That includes, by the way, the Sixers/Celtics game 7 in which Jayson Tatum went off for a 50-burger, and the total STILL went under, with only 200 total points scored.
If you look at every Game 7 played since 2020, the average total score is 199. Logically, this makes sense, as game 7s tend to be slower-paced, the defense is ratcheted up, and players are generally tight, which makes jump shots harder to come by. Sure, Tatum’s 50 points was absurd, but only one other player in that game scored over 20 points.
This series has been a rock fight pretty much the whole way through, and I see no reason why Game 7 will be any different.
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Marcus Smart Under 14.5 Points | -122 at FanDuel
This is a classic zig/zag, bet against trends kind of bet. Smart has come up huge for the Celtics in the past two games, scoring over 20 points in both games 5 & 6. They needed every point of that in Game 6 too, by the way, a game in which the Celtics won by exactly one point.
But, with that said, Smart had gone under 14.5 points in the previous five games prior to this two-game hot streak. The main reason why he has been able to score more recently is because he has been hot from deep.
In both of the previous two games, Smart has made four three-pointers. The last time he made 4 in a game? Game 4 against the Sixers. This comes as no surprise, as Smart has always been a streaky shooter, generally with more bad than good.
The most likely scenario here is that scoring is hard to come by in general and that Smart won’t be able to keep up the hot shooting from deep.
Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch | USA TODAY Sports