Playoff preview: x-factors in Philadelphia 76ers first-round series against New York Knicks
With the Philadelphia 76ers’ dramatic Play-In Tournament victory over the Miami Heat, the 76ers (7th) will officially take on the New York Knicks (2nd) in the first round of the NBA Playoffs. The first game of the series is set to tip-off on Saturday at 6:00 p.m. EST at Madison Square Garden, exclusively on ESPN.
Over the last few years, Philadelphia has managed to be in the top half of the Eastern Conference, but due to Joel Embiid’s meniscus injury that forced him to miss eight weeks of action, the 76ers find themselves taking on their most fearsome first-round opponent since the 2020 Boston Celtics, who swept Philadelphia.
Though Jalen Brunson and the Knicks are certainly not the most ideal matchup in the opening round of the playoffs, this is still very much a winnable series for the 76ers if the X-factors listed below fall in favor of Philadelphia.
76ers’ Joel Embiid’s health
Nothing says postseason basketball is here more than pondering the question “Is Joel Embiid healthy enough to play at a dominant level in a playoff series?” Another unfortunate meniscus injury in a three-year span and here we are discussing it once more.
Embiid made his return from undergoing a meniscus procedure in his left knee on April 2nd against the Oklahoma City Thunder and following that game, played in five of the 76ers’ final seven games of the regular season. In those last few games, he averaged 30.4 points per game, 9.2 rebounds per game, and 5.2 assists per game.
While Embiid wasn’t his complete dominant self, he still played at an MVP level and his dominance on both ends of the floor helped Philadelphia end the regular season on an eight-game winning streak.
However, Embiid tweaked his knee in Philadelphia’s second to last regular season game against the Orlando Magic and did not play in the 76ers’ finale against the Brooklyn Nets. In the Play-In game against Miami, Embiid was moving notably worse than he’d been since returning from injury and put up 23 points and 15 rebounds on 6-17 shooting against a tough Heat defense.
Still, it’s important to note that Miami has arguably the best postseason defense in the association these last few seasons and Embiid would’ve more than likely struggled to some extent even if healthy. The reigning MVP will get his legs back sooner than later, it’s just a matter of conditioning and time on the floor.
If the 76ers get even just 80% of Embiid at full strength, Philadelphia should have no problem advancing to the Eastern Conference Semifinals, but, the 76ers also need to contain an explosive Jalen Brunson to do so.
76ers need to contain Jalen Brunson
New York’s all-star guard Jalen Brunson has emerged as a borderline MVP candidate and arguably a top 12 player this season with per-game averages of 28.7 points and 6.7 assists on a true-shooting percentage of 59.2% (1.2% above league average).
Despite the Knicks struggling to stay healthy all season with OG Anunoby missing significant time due to an elbow injury and borderline all-star Julius Randle missing the rest of the season after sustaining a dislocated right shoulder, Brunson’s offensive explosions led New York to the 2nd seed with a 50-32 record and he’s showing no signs of slowing down.
However, without Randle to take some offensive pressure off of Brunson and the Knicks’ lack of a reliable secondary offensive creator, you can safely bet that Nick Nurse and the 76ers will throw the calvary at Brunson on every possession and force Brunson’s teammates to beat them.
Still, Brunson is one of the best offensive creators in the NBA, whose game will nicely translate into the postseason, despite any wicked coverage that Nurse and friends will whip up. Brunson’s gifted ability to score from all three levels and create his shot off the dribble will cause Philadelphia a lot of problems.
From an Xs and Os standpoint, the 76ers’ best bet is to aggressively hedge Brunson off the pick-and-roll, which would promptly stop his dribble penetration coming off the screen as he’d be met by both his primary defender and the helping big, but with the help defender recovering onto the screener, it’ll force Brunson to pass and effectively blow up the play altogether,
Philadelphia could also simply trap Brunson in isolation and off the pick-and-roll and make the Knicks completely rely on their spot-up shooting, which might not work to the 76ers’ advantage as New York has a variety of quality wings in OG Anunoby, Donte DiVincenzo, Josh Hart, and others.
The 76ers should implement a mix of strong blitzes and hedges to limit Brunson’s scoring as much as possible, but, the all-star guard will still inevitably get his as all scoring/playmaking threat guards do.
76ers’ Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey to face quality Knicks defense
Although the Knicks don’t run a menacing zone defense like Miami does, New York’s defense is still one of the better defenses in the NBA as they’re loaded with a plethora of two-way wings and a sound defensive front-court.
This might be a series where Tyrese Maxey will struggle to score in isolation and Kyle Lowry’s value as a facilitator will shine. With Donte DiVincenzo and Josh Hart both being solid defensive options to throw at Maxey, he will constantly have to face quality point-of-attack defenders from all angles, which would make it highly difficult for him to score off the dribble from anywhere on the floor.
Maxey is still a gifted scorer nonetheless and will certainly beat his defender off the bounce on multiple occasions, but Nick Nurse may want to put him in more off-ball actions where Maxey can curl off of staggered screens and get a more efficient shot than he would by being tightly guarded on-ball. With Kyle Lowry’s ability to scan the floor and Nick Nurse’s offensive creativity, Maxey will find his rhythm one way or another.
Joel Embiid will also face a notable amount of defensive pressure with New York’s frontcourt in Isaiah Hartenstein and most importantly, OG Anunoby, one of the most versatile defenders in the NBA. Anunoby’s ability to guard either of the 76ers’ star duo will be an issue for Philadelphia. On top of that. Anunoby is a great help defender who will give Embiid a lot of trouble in the post.
Isaiah Hartenstein and reserve center Mitchell Robinson are both physical interior defenders who clean up the boards on both ends. However, even on one good leg, Embiid against single coverage is like a knife slicing through warm butter and he should at the very least get to the foul line at a constant rate.
However, Embiid will likely have to face a heavy amount of double coverage in the form of Hartenstein and Anunoby and potentially some zone defense as well. Embiid must handle these coverages better than he did against Miami by staying aggressive and making quick reads.
With the Knicks likely throwing an array of defensive schemes at Embiid and Maxey, Kelly Oubre Jr. may be a vital factor in the 76ers’ offense with his ability to get to the rim both on and off the ball along with his improved playmaking.
Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey will need to be better than they were in Philadelphia’s Play-In game against Miami. Like the Heat, New York is a team that builds off their defensive momentum. With Embiid slowly returning to form and Maxey adjusting to tougher defensive coverages, the 76ers should be able to win this series in six games.
Mandatory Credit: Copyright 2024 NBAE(Photo by David Dow/NBAE via Getty Images)
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