NHL

2024 NHL Draft: Derek’s top-10 prospects

1. Macklin Celebrini

A prototypical #1 center with no significant flaws in his game. Macklin projects to generate offense and win hard matchups simultaneously, making him a weapon similar to Aleksander Barkov in function even if his style reminds me more of Nathan MacKinnon without some of the generational athleticism.

2. Zeev Buium

When I look at Buium, I see the most clear path to a #1 defenseman in the NHL. His offensive game is special. He’s the second-best offensive creator in this class, but his true value is as the draft‘s best transition defenseman.

He’s seemingly immune to forechecking pressure and able to engineer dynamic breakouts that lead to clean exits even when the opposing team fully commits to sending 2 forecheckers behind the goal line.

This is a defenseman’s most valuable trait, especially in the NHL playoffs. Blueliners who aren’t steamrolled by teams like the Carolina Hurricanes or Florida Panthers are worth their weight in gold.

He doesn’t have the prototypical size of a #1 D-man, but he’s dynamic and can endear himself to coaches that way.

His defense is good. While I would never confuse him with Jaccob Slavin, he held up very well as the kid with matchup minutes for the NCAA champions as a freshman.

His offensive game will likely undergo some changes. While he’s excellent at using agility and balance to protect the puck and dragging defenders to his preferred slower pace of play, he hangs on to the puck too long at the college level and manufactures too little separation in the process.

But really, that’s among the easiest changes a defenseman in this draft has to make. Between his transitional dominance and offensive upside, Buium can potentially change a franchise from the backend.

3. Ivan Demidov

The story of Demidov lately has been that he has game-breaker potential, but he’s an undersized winger who hasn’t been challenged in 2 years, and that increases his risk profile.

The risk profile is further exaggerated, as people see it when you look at his skating. He’s almost entirely reliant on his inside edges. It looks a lot like Andrew Cristall with more natural explosiveness.

I see Demidov a little differently. His NHLe profile has reached “99% star probability” in Byron Bader’s model.

Breaking that down means he’s a virtual guarantee to be a 58-point per 82 games career NHLer. All who came before him cleared at least this bar. And when I see Demidov, I see a kid whose hands are too good and whose passing game is too high-level to not be a 60-point-per-season NHLer.

His skating and the lack of challenge before him may easily hold him back up from being the 90-point-per-season superstar one might hope to acquire, but the truth is, it’d be irresponsible of a GM to pass on a guaranteed high-level top-6 forward. Especially when they have game-breaking offensive weapon upside.

4. Berkly Catton

Berkly Catton is the Zeev Buium of forwards. He’s a center who has mastered the transitional elements of hockey well beyond all of his peers in the draft class.

Beyond that, he’s a high-level playmaker who can thread passes with ease and create lanes with his lethal combination of high-end skating ability and absurdly silky hands.

Catton controls games with the puck on his stick. He has all of the potential to weave past defenders in a set neutral zone forecheck and all of the vision to find the right pass that creates skating lanes for a teammate when his lanes have been closed off.

5. Konsta Helenius

If Catton controls games with the puck on his stick, Konsta Helenius simply controls games all of the time.

He doesn’t quite have what I’d describe as “one-punch knockout power,” or an ability to break a game wide open with one mesmerizing shot or sublime passing play.

Helenius wins through attrition. His victims fall prey to a mastermind who controls the game with such an iron grip that opposing teams must feel as if an anaconda is wrapping itself around their necks.

The angles he takes as a forechecker stand out. The times he chooses to pressure his marks in defensive zone coverage stand out. He’s already developed a myriad of ways to get the puck back against opponents that have proved effective at the professional level.

His offense is grinding. He’s the kind of playmaker who focuses on improving the condition of the puck, and he has all the tricks to do exactly that.

He’s an underrated force in transition, able to generate controlled entries even in LIIGA where they will stack the blueline with 25 men and dig out a couple of alligator moats.

If the lane to penetrate the defensive structure himself doesn’t exist, he’ll delay and find trailing teammates to break through with him.

He’s a sublime passer who can unlock the weak side of the ice with all kinds of carefully threaded needles, and he sees every lane step before they open.

He’s lethally patient. He doesn’t just see passing lanes as they open. He pries them open with his poise and subtle manipulations.

Helenius was a top 5 scorer in LIIGA’s history for draft year eligibles, and this is despite shooting just 6% and 0% at the U18s.

While he isn’t the absolute best finisher in this class, he isn’t a poor shooter either. The truth is… his production is likely understated because he was unlucky.

It’s possible that Helenius’ poor finishing sticks with him. It’s possible that the offense doesn’t translate as much as I give it credit for. If so, he’s a useful middle-six center.

But if he hits? He’s a bonafide all-zones #1 center and the most viable alternative to Macklin Celebrini that the class has to offer as far as centers go.

6. Cole Eiserman

I’ve stuck my neck out for Eiserman for some time now. Mostly, it’s because I think the knocks against him are rather peculiar. He’s held to an odd standard.

One question that scouts ask is… what’s his game like if he isn’t scoring? To which I ask: what is ANYONE’S game like if they aren’t scoring?

There are no useful players who put up 0 points a year. That isn’t the question. Here’s the real question.

What’s the likelihood that he doesn’t score?

The answer: incredibly low.

Eiserman is one of the best shooters to come through the draft in recent memory. He may be the best. He has mastered the art of goal scoring. He has every shot in his bag.

He has a devastating one-timer that looks every bit the transcendent power-play weapon that Stamkos or Ovechkin possess.

His wrist shots are an unbelievable combination of power, accuracy, and a deceptive release. He can change the angle. He can place his upper body in tension with his lower body and falsely telegraph a shot as heading for the opposite side it does.

He scores from every range and every area. He specializes in scoring off of the pass. The most NHL-translatable form of goal scoring. There is truly no such thing as feeding him a bad pass. He combines this quality with high-level instincts for finding holes in defensive coverages to shoot from.

With these two traits, much like a star NFL receiver, Eiserman is simply always open.

His passing game is underrated. It’s especially downplayed how rapidly it’s improved. He’s beginning to understand the kind of lethal weapon his shot is and the way that threat bends defenses toward him. I’m still trying to make Owen Tippett understand this, and he’s 25.

When he takes the time to look, which is happening with increasing volume, he finds passes into high-danger areas.

It wouldn’t kill him to not thread EVERY high pass into high-danger areas. It’s not illegal to simply cycle the puck around some. He’s a bit hit-and-miss right now because he’s like a quarterback who simply refuses to hit a check down.

So is every high-end NTDP player. it’s a mentality that they all possess, and it’s a mentality that they all overcome very soon after they leave the program.

The highlight of his playmaking game is his ability to spot targets in the slot while he’s behind the goal line. That dovetails nicely with the power-forward game an NHL team is going to want out of him.

The good news is that Eiserman wants that out of himself. He chases hits to a fault. He charges the net with aplomb, and the work he’s done to improve defensively is actually somewhat remarkable.

A lot of the discourse around this player involves waving off his elite trait and putting all of his flaws under a microscope.

Here’s what I see: a kid who’s unreasonably young for this draft (an August 29th birthday) on a clear upward trajectory has an elite trait and has produced to such a degree that his NHLe profile is approaching 80% on star likelihood per Bader’s model.

If anybody is going to match the value of Celebrini 5 years down the line, then one of the first bets I’d place would be on Eiserman doing it by scoring goals in unprecedented bunches with a more well-rounded game than he currently possesses.

The risks that everyone else sees are what drag him down this low for me, quite frankly. I’m not blind to them. I simply believe in him being able to address them.

7. Artyom Levshunov

Artyom Levshunov headlines a tier of defensmen. This is a description that will, in some way, fit every single one.

They all can be #1 defensemen, but for some reason or another, I see it as considerably further off than someone like Zeev Buium. And I think the 4 forwards I listed are all more likely to be top-of-the-lineup players.

With Levshunov specifically, I see him as being able to provide some level of impact across all three zones.

He’s a strong and physical defender whose reads are pretty good if not stellar.

When compared to his team who made a system out of punting the puck to Narnia under the forechecking pressure of a docile squirrel, he finds clean plays to maintain possession and start a controlled breakout.

He’s also adept at carrying the pucks as a plus skater with solid handling skills.

He has a booming shot and a strong willingness to activate into the offensive play.

He’ll provide impact in all three zones. The question is: how much?

A #1 defender isn’t just positive in every area. They’re exceptional in some combination of areas.

8. Zayne Parekh

Parekh is something of Levshunov’s polar opposite. He doesn’t project to provide positive value in every area. But here’s what he is: the most gifted offensive defenseman in this draft by a considerable margin.

I know for a fact that some believe in Parekh in much the same way I believe in Eiserman, and it’s an opinion I respect.

I wouldn’t be surprised to discover that one of those people is an NHL general manager who selects in the top 5 of the upcoming draft, nor would I imply that they erred in their decision.

Parekh is a game-changer offensively. His skating can, at times, be a tad overstated. He’s not Quinn Hughes.

But he’s a smooth operator generally. A mobile skater who moves fluidly in all 4 directions, and the way he has the puck on the string with a special acumen for manipulation makes him an unbelievably potent threat when he’s walking the blue line.

There’s a robotic efficiency to the way he creates offense. Pucks on the net and sifted through traffic. Passes to the slot when he’s pinching down the wall or activating when he’s receiving a pass. The occasional sublime carry through the neutral zone leads to a goal for either himself or his teammate.

He has fantastic instincts for pinching and jumping passing lanes. He kills opposing plays early and gets back to where he shines the most: in possession of the puck.

It’s when those plays don’t work that you see the limitations of Parekh. He’s passive in defensive zone coverage. He’d probably be hunted at the NHL level.

I can live with that.

The more concerning flaw for me is the lack of physical skills that leads to him being a non-entity on retrievals. He doesn’t get first touch all that often, and he doesn’t even really fight for it. He consistently opts to arrive second for the puck and attempt a pin. NHL forwards would make him look silly in that scenario, and most critically, it limits his opportunities in transition and with possession.

If he can fix this aspect of his game, he’s a #1 defenseman with an offensive tilt. He’s a later-career Erik Karlsson who puts up points, changes the landscape of your team’s offense, and does everything he needs to guarantee enough possession to make his magic work even if he gets bludgeoned defensively every few shifts.

If he can’t, he’s a sheltered power-play weapon who Sasha Barkov and Sam Reinhart take turns viciously dunking on like Shaq and Kobe until the coach decides to sit him to stop the bleeding.

9. Sam Dickinson

For what it’s worth, it still hasn’t happened. I still haven’t seen the game where Sam Dickinson isn’t Niklas Lidstrom. People I trust tell me it’s happened! But my sample bias is now 6 games strong of Dickinson happening to be the next GOAT.

In all seriousness, while I haven’t seen the game in which Dickinson isn’t Lidstrom, I have seen plenty of the clips. His retrievals can be spotty. His puck handling is inconsistent. In some games, he has it on a string. In other games, he’s punting the puck around the ice off the heel of his blade.

Consistency, most of all, is the issue.

If he can make the necessary changes, then he’s an overwhelming force in every zone and he dominates in every game state.

If he can’t, we could consider Darnell Nurse or Seth Jones. They are still good players but liable to be overpaid.

10. Cayden Lindstrom

With Lindstrom, I see someone who checks all the boxes except for the one labeled it. Whatever that “it factor” is, however, I subjectively define it, I just don’t see it. My caveat here is that I don’t think anybody has seen a sufficient sample of Lindstrom to be all that confident in anything they’re seeing but the fact that he’s an elite athlete.

For that reason, I suspect many will disagree with this ranking. Like I said with Parekh, I don’t shun people for believing in a player. I encourage it.

We talk about the tools. And there are a lot of tools. But they all seem like peripheral tools at this point. Abilities that he can use to do useful things at the NHL level instead of stuff that you’d currently say: “This is what he looks like in the NHL.”

By that, I mean it’s all about: “He’s big, so he can do this.”

“He skates well, so he can do this.”

Rather than direct tools such as: “He is currently projected to do this in the NHL.”

I worry he’s just completely pummeling players who are nowhere close to his level physically. The Lindros-like figure he presented in his limited DY sample does not seem like his fate in the NHL. But perhaps I’m wrong.

What is he in the NHL, if not that overbearing and dominant force? He’s probably a lot like this year’s version of Quinton Byfield.

Strong. Fast. Tenacious forechecker. Awesome possession player in the top 6. Probably not as creative as this year’s Byfield was, but a more reliable goal scorer. And that’s a player worthy of the top 10.

He is a very good player, but I’m personally willing to dream of some of the players above him more because I’m more intimately familiar with the strengths and weaknesses. But I also see the potential for him to blow up.

Mandatory Credit: Boston University Athletics

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