Breakdown: Mets and Braves enter Monday’s doubleheader needing just one win to secure one of the two available NL Wild Card spots

The NL Wild Card race will be decided on Monday, with the Atlanta Braves, New York Mets, and the Arizona Diamondbacks all fighting for the final two spots in the postseason.

The Milwaukee Brewers will play either the New York Mets or the Arizona Diamondbacks in the NL Wild Card series. The winner will then travel to Philadelphia on Saturday to begin the NLDS.

Here is how the Phils fared against those four teams this year:

• Brewers: 4-2 (+4 run differential)
• Diamondbacks: 3-4 (-3 run differential)
• Mets: 7-6 (+10 run differential)

Full Schedule: Phillies will begin Red October on Saturday, October 5th in the NLDS

Here’s how Monday’s doubleheader between the Mets and Braves will shake out the NL Wild Card picture:

• If the Mets and Braves split the doubleheader:
  Both teams make the playoffs. The Braves would snag the No. 5 seed and face the Padres, while the Mets would lock in the No. 6 seed and play the Brewers. It’s the simplest path for both teams to punch their ticket.
• If either team sweeps the doubleheader:
  The team that sweeps earns the No. 5 seed and faces the Padres, while the D-backs sneak in as the No. 6 seed and face the Brewers. The team that was swept? They’re out.

Atlanta Braves

Currently tied with the Mets for the second NL Wild Card spot, Atlanta holds some key advantages but still need to handle business.

• Win tiebreaker vs: D-backs
• Tiebreaker TBD vs: Mets (Atlanta leads the season series 6-5, with two games remaining)
• Doubleheader drama: Atlanta’s immediate focus is Monday’s doubleheader against the Mets. All the Braves need is one win out of the two games to lock up the season series tiebreaker and secure the No. 5 seed. If they split or sweep, they’ll claim the higher seed between themselves and the Mets.

The most chaotic outcome would be a three-way tie between the Braves, Mets, and D-backs. In this scenario, Arizona would be left on the outside looking in, thanks to losing head-to-head series with both New York and Atlanta.

New York Mets

The Mets are in the exact same position as the Braves, tied for the second Wild Card spot, but have a tougher road ahead to secure the No. 5 seed.

• Win tiebreaker vs: D-backs
• Tiebreaker TBD vs: Braves (Mets trail season series 5-6, with two games remaining)
• What’s at stake: The Mets have to sweep Monday’s doubleheader against Atlanta to win the season series and leapfrog the Braves in the standings for the No. 5 seed. If they lose one of the two games, they’ll fall to the No. 6 spot in a three-way tie scenario, but they’ll still get into the playoffs over the D-backs.

Arizona Diamondbacks

The D-backs are one percentage point behind the Braves and Mets, but they don’t have tiebreakers on their side.

• Lose tiebreaker vs: Braves, Mets
• Tiebreaker outlook: Arizona has already lost the season series against both New York and Atlanta, so they’ll need a little help to sneak into the postseason.

For the D-backs to clinch, they need either the Braves or Mets to sweep Monday’s doubleheader. If that happens, the D-backs would grab the final Wild Card spot as the No. 6 seed.

Recap

• Braves: Win one game vs. the Mets to secure the No. 5 seed.
• Mets: Need a doubleheader sweep to grab the No. 5 seed.
• D-backs: Hope for a sweep by either the Braves or Mets to sneak into the No. 6 spot.

It’s going to be a wild finish, and by Monday night, we’ll know which teams are headed to the postseason and who the Phillies could potentially host in the NLDS when Red October officially begins next Saturday.

Join The Chase