Red October: Phillies potential roster, lineups, rotation, and bullpen as they await the winner of the Brewers and Mets NL Wild Card Series

After 162 regular season games, the Philadelphia Phillies have officially arrived to Red October and unlike the past two years, they’ll watch the NL Wild Card round from home, waiting to host the winner of the Milwaukee Brewers and New York Mets series at Citizens Bank Park on Saturday for the start of the National League Division Series.

The Philadelphia Phillies finished as the No. 2 seed in the National League behind the Los Angeles Dodgers. The Mets, squeaked into the playoffs after splitting a double header against the Atlanta Braves yesterday, which officially set that side of the NL Postseason bracket.

MLB Postseason 12-Team Bracket is Set >>

Here’s how the Phillies have played against the Brewers and Mets this season:

• Brewers: 4-2 record (+4 run differential)
• Mets: 7-6 record (+10 run differential)

Phillies Projected Lineup

The top of the Phillies’ lineup has been consistent throughout the 2024 MLB season. The last few spots however, will change based on pitching matchups.

If the Phillies face a right-handed pitcher, look for Brandon Marsh and Rojas to man left and center field, respectively. If a lefty takes the mound, Hays or Wilson could start in left, while Rojas or Marsh could be the call in center.

Phillies Starting Lineup:

1. Kyle Schwarber, DH
2. Trea Turner, SS
3. Bryce Harper, 1B
4. Nick Castellanos, RF
5. Alec Bohm, 3B
6. Bryson Stott, 2B
7. J.T. Realmuto, C
8. Brandon Marsh, LF (could switch with Austin Hays based on matchups)
9. Johan Rojas, CF (or Cal Stevenson/Weston Wilson depending on the pitcher)

Let’s say the Milwaukee Brewers handle business against the New York Mets. The Brewers’ starting rotation is right-hand-heavy, meaning Brandon Marsh will likely get the nod in left field throughout the NLDS.

Milwaukee Brewers Postseason Rotation:

1. RHP Freddy Peralta (32 GS, 11-9, 3.68 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 200 K, 173.2 IP)
2. RHP Aaron Civale (31 GS, 8-9, 4.36 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 149 K, 161.0 IP)
3. RHP Frankie Montas (29 GS, 7-11, 4.85 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 142 K, 146.2 IP)
4. RHP Tobias Myers (25 GS, 8-6, 3.09 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 122 K, 134.0 IP)

As for the New York Mets, they counter with 3 of 4 starters throwing lefty – which could force Rob Thomson to make changes to his outfield, relying on Austin Hays over Marsh.

New York Mets Postseason Rotation:

1. LHP Sean Manaea (31 GS, 12-5, 3.29 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 183 K, 178.0 IP)
2. LHP David Peterson (20 GS, 9-3, 3.08 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 93 K, 114.0 IP)
3. LHP José Quintana (30 GS, 10-9, 3.74 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 126 K, 166.0 IP)
4. RHP Tylor Megill (14 GS, 4-5, 3.98 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 83 K, 72.1 IP)

Philadelphia Phillies Postseason Rotation:

1. RHP Zack Wheeler (31 GS, 16-7, 2.56 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 213 K, 193.2 IP)
2. LHP Cristopher Sánchez (31 GS, 11-9, 3.32 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 153 K, 181.2 IP)
3. RHP Aaron Nola (32 GS, 13-8, 3.52 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 190 K, 194.1 IP)
4. LHP Ranger Suárez (26 GS, 12-7, 3.15 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 143 K, 148.2 IP)

Phillies NLDS Starters:

NLDS Game 1: No surprises here—Zack Wheeler will take the ball.

NLDS Game 2: Topper has options. While Aaron Nola has the experience, Cristopher Sánchez has been phenomenal at home, sporting a 2.21 ERA at Citizens Bank Park. Nola may still get the nod based on his pedigree, but Sánchez’s home-road splits could be enough to have the Phillies thinking a switch is necessary.

NLDS Game 3: Whoever doesn’t start Game 2—Aaron Nola or Cristopher Sánchez—will almost certainly start Game 3 on the road.

NLDS Game 4 (if necessary): Ranger Suárez will be the fourth starter, should the series extend.

Phillies Bullpen:

Closer Carlos Estévez will anchor the back end, but Rob Thomson has plenty of options. Jeff Hoffman, Matt Strahm, José Alvarado, and Orion Kerkering have all been reliable, while José Ruiz has been impressive of late, earning himself a spot in more high-leverage situations. The bullpen’s depth has become a strength compared to previous postseasons.

Roster Construction:

There’s a chance the Phillies will carry 12 pitchers and 14 position players this postseason, a shift from their typical 13/13 split. This is due to uncertainty in left and center field, where having an extra bat could provide more flexibility.

Here’s a look at how the roster could be structured:

• Catchers: J.T. Realmuto, Garrett Stubbs
• Infielders: Bryce Harper (1B), Bryson Stott (2B), Alec Bohm (3B), Trea Turner (SS), Kody Clemens (Utility), Edmundo Sosa (Utility)
• Outfielders: Nick Castellanos, Austin Hays, Brandon Marsh, Johan Rojas, Cal Stevenson/Weston Wilson
• Designated Hitter: Kyle Schwarber
• Starting Rotation: Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, Cristopher Sánchez, Ranger Suárez
• Bullpen: Carlos Estévez, Jeff Hoffman, Matt Strahm, Orion Kerkering, José Alvarado, José Ruiz, Tanner Banks, Max Lazar

Who do the Phillies want to face in the NLDS – Brewers or Mets…?

Honestly, the Phillies should have zero issues beating either team but if you want to look for an edge, then you’ll find it based on the starting rotations for each team. As stated above, the Brewers are right-heavy while the Mets are left-heavy.

Don’t overthink it. The answer is obviously the New York Mets.

Kyle Schwarber had a .300 batting average with 12 home runs and 38 RBIs in 248 plate appearances against left-handed pitchers this season.

Bryce Harper hit .301 with 9 homers and 31 RBIs in 226 plate appearances against left-handed pitchers this season.

J.T. Realmuto hit .286 with 4 home runs and 14 RBIs in 122 plate appearances against left-handed pitchers this season.

Nick Castellanos had a .269 batting average with 10 home runs and 34 RBIs in 170 plate appearances against left-handed pitchers this season.

Trea Turner had a .303 batting average with 8 home runs and 20 RBIs in 168 plate appearances against left-handed pitchers this season.

It all starts Saturday in South Philadelphia at Citizens Bank Park.

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