The Phillies yet again, have a Ranger Suarez problem

For the first two innings Tuesday night in Cincinnati, Ranger Suárez looked like the guy who was untouchable for most of May and all of June and the same one who started last season like an NL Cy Young candidate.

It took him only 12 pitches (11 strikes) to sit down the Reds’ first six batters. Then, just like that, it was gone. By the end of the night, Suárez had been tagged for six runs on a season-high 10 hits in just 5 1/3 innings. The Phillies’ four-game win streak was over in a 6-1 loss.

Phillies bats go silent, snap 4-game winning streak in 6-1 loss to the Reds

The Ranger Suarez Problem: The Numbers Aren’t Pretty

Last night’s outing means Ranger Suárez has now allowed 11 runs on 19 hits over his last 11 2/3 innings. Before the All-Star break, he was cruising with a 2.15 ERA. Since then he’s posted 6.59 ERA over five starts.

It’s a familiar pattern.

• First half of 2024: 17-7, 2.50 ERA in 32 starts (over past two seasons combined)
• Second half of 2024: 3-7, 6.06 ERA in 13 starts (over past two seasons combined)

Last year told the same story. Through his first 15 starts in 2023, Suárez went 10-1 with a 1.75 ERA, the best start by any Phillies pitcher since the mound was lowered in 1969. He finished the year 2-7 with a 6.17 ERA over his final 12 outings.

So what gives…? Fatigue, Injury or just Bad Luck?

Rob Thomson was asked about the possibility of fatigue, but Suárez swears that’s not it.

“I feel good actually,” Suárez said via a team interpreter. “I know I’ve had a couple rough starts and everyone is wondering if it could be fatigue, but it’s not.”

Topper isn’t ruling it out, though:

“Other than fatigue, I don’t think so. He hasn’t complained of anything. That’s the only thing I can really attribute it to.”

It’s worth noting Ranger Suárez’s history here:

• Missed a month last year around this same time with lower back soreness
• Missed the first month of this season with lower back stiffness
• Admitted his shoulder and back weren’t 100% during his June 29 start in Atlanta

The Velocity Dip Is Real

Suárez’s sinker averaged 89.6 mph against the Reds — the fifth straight start (and seventh in his last eight) where it’s sat below 90 mph. In the first 10 starts of the year, his sinker averaged above 90 mph in nine of them.

That drop coincides exactly with the June 29 start in Atlanta when he first mentioned the shoulder/back issue.

Frustration Boiling Over

The always-calm Ranger Suárez showed some cracks Tuesday night. He was clearly frustrated with multiple borderline calls from the home-plate umpire, gesturing after his final batter and stopping to talk with the third-base umpire on his way off the mound.

Thanks to the NLDS schedule, the Phillies rotation in October just got a whole lot easier

What’s Next for the Phillies Rotation?

Help could be coming. Aaron Nola is lined up to return Sunday after striking out 11 over 5 2/3 innings in a Triple-A rehab start.

Aaron Nola is coming…

Nola sits down 11 tonight in Buffalo🔥#ironpigs #phillies #mlb #milb pic.twitter.com/veSS4OxwIw

— Lehigh Valley IronPigs (@IronPigs) August 13, 2025

That opens the door for the Phillies:L

• Go to a six-man rotation
• Skip Suárez’s next turn entirely to give him extra rest

Thomson didn’t commit to anything, but with the way Suárez’s second halves have gone, the Phillies can’t afford to let this spiral. They need May-June Ranger Suárez back — and fast.

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