Phillies pass first test in September, Magic Number drops as NL Bye Race heats up

The Phillies rolled into Milwaukee in the early hours of Monday morning after a gut-punch loss to the Braves. By the second inning, they were already staring at a four-run deficit against the Brewers, the team with the best record in baseball. And yet, true to Rob Thomson’s favorite word, they were resilient.

Phillies storm all the way back in Milwaukee, beat the Brewers 10-8

They clawed back, blew a late lead, then clawed back again before Brandon Marsh’s fourth hit of the day delivered the game-winning run in the ninth. A 10-8 win over the Brewers wasn’t just another notch in the standings. It was a statement.

“Almost like a playoff feel,” Thomson said after the game.

It was also massive in the bigger picture. The victory moved the Phillies (80-58) to within 4.5 games of Milwaukee (85-54) for the top record in the NL and kept their NL East lead over the Mets (74-64) at six games.

Magic Number Watch

• To make the playoffs: 18
• To clinch the NL East: 19
• To clinch a 1st Round Bye: 24

The Phils are now 1.5 games ahead of the Dodgers (78-59) for that crucial second bye, with the Padres (76-62) lurking just 2.5 games back.

Phillies’ Remaining Games

• Home/Away: 13/11
• vs. teams above .500: 12
• vs. teams .500 or worse: 12

The Phillies have the hardest schedule of the three contenders. The next two against Milwaukee are followed by a brutal 10-game stretch (Sept. 8-17) against the Mets (four), Royals (three), and Dodgers (three). The good news? The first seven are at Citizens Bank Park. The bad news? That Dodgers series, which could decide the bye, is at Dodger Stadium.

If the Phils can survive that gauntlet, the path softens. They finish the season with nine straight against losing teams: the D-backs, Marlins, and Twins.

Dodgers’ Remaining Games

• Home/Away: 10/15
• vs. teams above .500: 6
• vs. teams .500 or worse: 19

The Dodgers have it easier, with only two series left against winning teams (the Phillies and Mariners). The downside for L.A. is 15 road games, but when you’re playing the Pirates and Orioles this week, that hardly matters.

Padres’ Remaining Games

• Home/Away: 16/9
• vs. teams above .500: 9
• vs. teams .500 or worse: 16

San Diego has the easiest path of all three. Thirteen of their final 25 games are against last-place teams, including seven against the Rockies (39-99). They even get the White Sox, who are about to hit 100 losses for the third straight year.

NL East Picture

The Phillies are in control, but the Mets hold the head-to-head tiebreaker. If the division somehow comes down to a tie, that’s a wrinkle Philly doesn’t want to see. The Brewers and Dodgers tiebreakers are still up for grabs, which makes these September series even more important.

The Phillies’ magic number is ticking down, the division feels safe, but the bye is far from locked up. Monday in Milwaukee showed what this team is made of. September is about to test it all over again.

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