The Matvei Michkov Situation.

Anyone who follows me on X would know that this is a bit of a topic du jour for me. Michkov is one of my favorite players to watch in the league, and he has been since he stepped into the league. He was one of my favorite prospects to watch out of any recent class when he was drafted.

Obviously, I have a bias for the kid. I try not to let it completely pollute my judgment. I don’t excuse myself from the use of logic on account of my enjoyment of how he plays the game of hockey, but when Michkov comes up on a platform with a character limit… it becomes easier for the conversation to be unproductive.

It’s not just that it’s hard to get all your thoughts out in a certain number of characters. No. For one thing, any writer should pride themselves on being able to talk about complex topics in an engaging and reasonably succinct manner. For another thing, I have no problem with threading or post-storming when the situation calls for that.

The real problem is that interactions on social media, even posts on social media, tend to come at the topic from one particular angle. And when someone changes the angle, or the accepted premises upon which the conversation takes place, it becomes more about rejecting or accepting those premises rather than holistically building on them.

A bit of an ethereal thing to describe, so let me make it concrete with an example. Someone talks about why Michkov isn’t “earning minutes,” and I’m more likely to explain why that’s ridiculous instead of explaining why they might feel that way, but they should feel another way.

In an argumentative platform, it’s hard to have a real conversation.

So, this piece is going to be that conversation with myself. Coming at the topic from every angle.

Do Michkov’s Minutes Matter?

All discussion about Matvei Michkov starts with the points he’s producing (not nearly enough) and usually ends with the minutes he’s playing. As if it’s impossible for him to produce points when he isn’t playing a ton of minutes.

Now, let’s start with the obvious just to get it out of the way. No, it isn’t impossible for Michkov to produce in lieu of real minutes.

There was a seven-game stretch in November last year where Michkov averaged this amount of ice time, to the second, and put up 6 points in those 7 games.

Of course, there was also an 18-game stretch last year where he played similar minutes per game and put up just 5 points. Wherein we had this exact same conversation.

It’s not impossible to simply score a lot anyway, even when you aren’t playing a ton of minutes. But it is a hell of a lot harder. Honestly, it usually comes as a product of obviously unsustainable percentages. You know, like 20% of the shots your team is taking with you on the ice are going in, and every single one happened to feature the puck on your stick.

Yeah, those stretches happen. And it’ll undoubtedly happen for Michkov this year. That those stretches exist, however, doesn’t change the fact that it is simply harder to produce the same number of points in fewer minutes.

At times, it’s hard to even produce the same number of points per hour. And this isn’t a phenomenon unique to Michkov, either. On X, I asked this question.

Do you guys know why NHL teams generally don't like to play skilled players on the 4th line?

— Derek Dunn (@SuitableAlias) November 6, 2025

I received some answers in DMs rather than on the timeline, but nobody had the fully correct answer. It’s pretty simple.

Skilled players don’t play on the fourth line because making skilled plays in a game as frenetic as hockey is really hard. And because it’s really hard, you really have to be in a certain state of mind. You have to be approaching a flow state, where the most complex decisions imaginable happen as naturally to you as the air you breathe.

Some players access that flow state more easily than others, and some players absolutely thrive on that flow state. When they’re in it, they’re unstoppable. When they’re not, when they’re out of flow, then certain elements of their game start to fade or crumble.

The easiest way to ensure someone is in a flow state is to give them consistent minutes. It’s not even about the volume, so much as the rote consistency. On the ice for 45 minutes, off the ice for 2 minutes. Again and again.

Usually, in order to ensure that players are getting that kind of consistency, it’s going to require somewhere around 18 minutes a night. Anything less, and you’re going 3 minutes. Or 5 minutes. Or 6 minutes. Just riding the bench.

By the time you get back out there, your legs are frozen, your mind is duller, and your hands are less sure because you haven’t felt the puck in maybe 10 minutes, since you don’t touch the puck every shift.

Nic Deslauriers doesn’t need a flow state to play NHL hockey. He doesn’t play that kind of game anyway. If he touches a puck, it’s to play it to an area and chase after it or shoot it at the net. He’s not trying to carry the puck or make a high difficulty pass through several sticks.

Whereas some players have to do those things to be relevant in the NHL, but in order to do those things, they need the minutes to readily access that state of flow.

Michkov, unfortunately, is quite clearly a player who almost lives and dies by being in or out of flow state.

In his first 27 games in the league, Michkov had 27 points while playing nearly 18 minutes a night.

In the final 27 games of his rookie season, Michkov had 29 points while playing over 18 minutes a night.

If you put those samples together, that is 56 points in 54 games. For well over half of his rookie season, he was on an 85-point pace, and he was doing that without a particularly egregious volume of minutes. Just quality top 6 minutes. Just enough to provide rote consistency.

So, yes, it is almost inevitable that Michkov eventually starts scoring despite a minutes restriction. Fully agreed. But in the long run, you are getting a worse player when you prevent him from easily accessing that state of flow that allows him to make plays that few players in the world can make.

Does the lack of minutes fully excuse Michkov for everything in his game? No, of course not. But he’s quite clearly a better player when he plays those additional minutes.

“He’s Not Getting Those Minutes Because He Sucks!”

The people on the lower end of the intelligence spectrum, that’s represented in this debate, usually counter with something of that nature. Perhaps that’s a bit ungenerous to how they phrase it, but… it’s directionally true.

The simple answer to that is: no, he doesn’t actually. He’s not scoring right now, but it’s just wrong to think that’s the only thing happening when a player is on the ice.

After a legitimately rough start to the season, Michkov’s last 8 games have been oppressive for opposing teams.

He’s controlling 57% of the shot attempts when he’s on the ice. 57% of the shots on goal. 57% of the expected goals. 60% of the scoring chances. 63% of the high danger chances. And… the all-important goals?

He’s outscoring teams 6-4 in these minutes.

He’s not achieving these results as some kind of accident. This isn’t a mirage. The Michkov that everyone knows is still there. In some ways, he’s even better than he was last year.

Let’s start with those positives that have been manifesting themselves, somewhat out of view of the casual audience. And we’ll work our way into the legitimate negatives that are still holding back his production (other than poor luck at the moment, which is an obvious factor).

First, Michkov’s playmaking hasn’t gone anywhere. He’s as sharp a passer as ever, and it all starts with his play through the neutral zone.

Michkov isn’t a cannon being shot through the neutral zone at breakneck speed like Owen Tippett. He’s a savant who sees things that others don’t. A master of time and space.

He has a dizzying array of passes in his arsenal to facilitate zone entries and rush attempts for his teammates. He can be moving backwards with the puck in the neutral zone and find a teammate streaking down the middle, then hit them on their tape. He can do that while there are defenders at his sides and on his back.

The Flyers, as a team, have struggled to gain the middle lane with possession in transition.

Michkov does it with ease through his downright wizard-like passing.

He’s always had that. It’s why he was able to access the interior so easily and control the expected goals (nearly 53% on the entire year) without controlling the shot attempt share (about 48%) as a rookie.

But this year, he’s controlling everything. He’s dominating the puck in a way that simply wasn’t happening a year ago, because… as much as people might resist this… he’s physically better than he was a year ago.

He’s getting to pucks on the forecheck and forcing turnovers. He’s winning more battles. He’s putting people on their ass, even when they’re bigger than him. He’s solved the biggest ailment that he had as a rookie, being utterly useless without the Flyers in possession of the puck.

Everyone wants to talk about his weight and his shape, but his physical condition has been an asset so far.

He’s skating an average of 9.97 miles per hour according to NHL Edge, which puts him nearly in the 80th percentile of the NHL.

Even despite his minutes, his total miles of 32.43 are in the 62nd percentile. He’s been, mathematically speaking, everywhere.

His 10.39 miles skated per hour at even strength is outside of the league’s top 10, but not by much. Marty Necas is at 10.88, and he’s 4th.

Naturally, the fastest players tend to make this list. And centers, too. Fast centers. Jack Hughes, Leo Carlsson, Ryan McLeod, and Connor McDavid.

Michkov’s speed is still remarkably average, and he’s a winger. But through anticipation and energy, he’s covering ground as if he has elite wheels.

He’s in physical condition, but it is possible that his on-ice training was limited, and he doesn’t feel as mechanically precise as he usually is. Jared McCain came back to the Sixers in great physical shape. He still missed every shot he took in his first game back.

There are places where this is manifesting itself, even outside of luck.

Over this stretch, his playmaking has been rewarded. But not unfairly so. He’s second on the team in assists per hour at 5v5 over this span to Sean Couturier, and nobody else is even close to them. Not even Trevor Zegras.

On the goal-scoring front, he’s almost surely due for more. Shooting 4% is impossibly low, and no, that’s not a performance thing. NHL forwards have to practically try to shoot under 10% over a season, even Owen Tippett.

Michkov shot 13% as a rookie, and players get more efficient over time rather than less. He might not hit the mark this year, but this is a 15% shooter in the near future. His 1 goal could easily be 4 goals already, and then we’re talking about 9 points in 13 games. Which, for a player who’s getting 15 minutes a night without crazy heaters? That’s really good.

This isn’t to say that Michkov has been perfect, and everyone’s just crazy if they notice he isn’t really clicking at full capacity. There are still areas of his game where it hasn’t clicked yet.

His shooting, actually. I don’t mean his shot mechanics; I mean his shot selection. This is a player who hasn’t really found a place in this offense to get his shots. Over this time, he ranks third among Flyers forwards in shot attempts per hour behind Zegras and Tippett.

That sounds great, except he actually ranks ninth in unblocked shot attempts. He’s slamming shinpads right now. Only 50% of his shot attempts aren’t blocked, which is insane. That’s defenseman numbers, and not particularly good defensemen.

I suspect that a lot of this is just him throwing shots before the lane is there, chomping at the bit to get that ever-elusive goal.

It’s usually concerning because it indicates a lack of ability to get to the inside, but that’s been no problem for Michkov.

He ranks first on the Flyers in scoring chances per hour and third in high-danger chances per hour over that time.

7.5 of his 8 unblocked shot attempts an hour at making it to the net, so no Plexiglass Punishing is occurring here. And he’s created a team-high 2.5 rebounds per hour. Owen Tippett is the only other Flyers player over 2.

So, he’s getting to the inside. He’s generating chances for himself. He’s hitting the net. He’s getting second chances.

He’s just not scoring, and that lack of scoring has him pressing and shooting before the lane emerges, which is uncharacteristic of a player defined by his poise.

The other thing worth talking about that’s also indicative of a player pressing is the turnovers. Now, the NHL is notoriously awful about tracking giveaways. But he’s had entirely too many regardless of tracking inconsistencies.

He’s currently first in giveaways per hour, which is just not acceptable. Now, it hasn’t cost the Flyers much, given his control over all of the shots and chances. A lot of the giveaways are happening in the OZ, which is where you want them to happen if they’re going to happen.

But that so many of them are happening is once again indicative of someone pressing and forcing plays that aren’t there because they’re desperate to turn around a slow start and bad situation.

His style of play is naturally going to lead to more giveaways and turnovers anyway, but that’s too much. That should be around 6 or 7, not over 9.

All in all? Yes. Michkov could be doing more. Michkov should be playing better.

That doesn’t mean he’s playing poorly or that he deserves the minutes he’s getting. Neither of those statements is true.

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